Updated Saturday evening:
A Tornado Watch continues for all of southeast Texas. There is still the possibility of severe storms tonight with a few tornadoes. But the cold front is advancing across the area and once the temperature falls in your neighborhood, the threat of tornadoes will diminish. There is very heavy rain falling behind the front, however, and there could still be some large hail and damaging winds throughout the evening.
The "cap" helped protect us today. That thin layer of warm air aloft prevented the showers ahead of the cold front from developing into supercell thunderstorms. The cloudy sky also helped by limiting daytime heating and instability.
Again, storms will continue this evening, but the threat of tornadoes is diminishing with the advancement of the cold front.
Click here for a map showing all the watches and warnings in effect right now.
Stay safe. Click here for our online severe weather guide.
The discussion below is from earlier today.
The Storm Prediction Center still has us under a "moderate risk" of severe weather today. To emphasize the threat of dangerous thunderstorms, a special Severe Weather Outlook was issued this morning. The statement stresses again that "the storms could produce a few strong tornadoes, in addition to destructive outflow winds and very large hail."
The SPC breaks it down even more. Today in southeast Texas there is a 45% chance of damaging winds, a 30% chance or large hail and a 15% chance of a significant tornado, ranked EF-2 or higher. Those odds might not sound very high. But considering we usually have a .2% chance of a tornado this time of year, the possibility of a twister today is 75 times greater than usual.
The cold front is getting a little closer to Houston. If you look at the map to the left, you'll see that it was 68° in Houston at 8AM and 52° in College Station. We'll probably hit the mid 70s this afternoon before the cold front arrives later tonight. Right now the front has stalled because it's running parallel with upper level winds. But a storm in the upper atmosphere will kick it eastward tonight.
The upper level low is now in El Paso. That's the swirl you see on this water vapor satellite image to the right. The low is moving quickly. It will be centered near San Angelo by 6 PM tonight. The winds ahead of the circulation spread out, or diverge which enhances updraft strength. There is also a significant change in the wind direction from the ground through the mid-atmosphere. This wind shear will encourage developing storms to rotate.
Before that cold front arrives later tonight, strong thunderstorms will develop across southeast Texas this afternoon. These isolated, rotating storms are called "supercells" by meteorologists. These are the types of storms that can produce strong tornadoes. We don't see too many supercells in the Houston area. You can understand, perhaps, why the threat of tornadoes is higher today.
Put it all together and you have (1) supercell thunderstorms this afternoon capable of producing tornadoes and (2) a squall line of severe storms along the cold front tonight.
The storms will be moving quickly once they develop. That will require quick action on your part. You can monitor MegaDoppler 13 with our exclusive county-by-county radar maps online and on your web-enabled cellphone. Just type in www.abc13.com
To read a previous discussion and reader comments about this weather system, click here.
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