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Tropics are active.

Updated Saturday afternoon: Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into the tropical wave over the Caribbean. The system is producing heavy rain in Jamaica and eastern Cuba but it still not very organized. The computer models continue to predict a northwest movement over the Yucatan and into northern Mexico and/or south Texas. At least two of the models predict this system could become a major, category three hurricane. But intensity forecasts are very unreliable.

Check back for updates later.

Updated late Friday night: The National Hurricane Center upgraded the swirl off the South Carolina coast to Tropical Depression #3. Heavy rainfall has been developing around a small, tight circulation. If the winds increase over 39 mph this storm will be named Cristobal.

For the latest position and forecast track, check our webpage.

Previous discussion follows:

Hurricane Hunters did not find a closed circulation in the cloud mass over the eastern Caribbean Sea when they flew Friday afternoon. So the system is still classified a "tropical wave."

Carib_vis_satThe storm is physically a little bigger than it was Thursday and there's still a broad cyclonic (counter-clockwise) circulation.  It is presently moving over warm water temps that are in the low 80s. But 30-knot wind shear is located to the north which might impede development initially.

The forecast models continue to suggest the system could strengthen and track into the Gulf of Mexico. Most of the late afternoon runs show a track more toward Mexico. Although the GFDL model still shows a path toward New Orleans, it is the only model taking that path. Keep in mind these models are tracking a storm that hasn’t developed yet so the forecast track is bound to bounce around until a closed circulation develops.

Active_tropics_2And then there's Bertha...which strengthened into a hurricane again Friday afternoon. That storm will weaken as it moves northeast over the cool water of the north Atlantic this weekend.

The tropical satellite also shows a large, disorganized tropical wave over the western Caribbean. That is not expected to become organized and develop into a tropical cyclone, although heavy rain will still fall across Central America.

Meantime, another low pressure system off the southeast coast of the U.S. is becoming a bit better organized. Hurricane Hunters will fly into that system on Saturday if necessary.

A new tropical storm? Look into the crystal ball.

Computer_models_07172008Hurricane Hunters flew into a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday. They did not find a well-defined circulation.  Thunderstorm activity, although a little stronger, is still very disorganized.

The computer models continue to hint at possible development as the system moves westward. For the past few runs, the GFDL model has been consistently bringing the storm into the Gulf. Although intensity forecasts are largely unreliable, this model (and others) is also forecasting the storm to become a hurricane by early next week.

Right now the broad circulation is pretty close to South America which is probably inhibiting development. But once it moves into the central Caribbean Sea watch for it to become better organized and intensify; the water temps are 82-84° in that area and the wind shear over and immediately ahead of the tropical wave is less than 10 knots.

The next storm in the Atlantic basin will be named Cristobal.

Bertha Breaks Another Record, Signals Active Season

Bertha claimed another record today, becoming the longest-lived July tropical storm in history.  The previous record of 12.25 days at tropical storm strength or greater was held by Storm #2 in 1916.  Bertha also holds the record for the strongest July storm in the Atlantic Ocean, and no July storm has formed farther east in the Atlantic Ocean than Bertha did.  It is important to note that some of these records may not have been set if not for the advent of satellites that allow us to observe these storms far out in the Atlantic.

Active_season When a strong storm like Bertha forms early in the hurricane season (before August), people often ask us if this means we are in for an active season.  It turns out that early season development has no bearing on the rest of the hurricane season unless the storm forms in an area I have outlined in the graphic at right.  When a storm like Bertha forms in this part of the "main development region" during June or July, it usually signals that there will be an average to above-average number of storms.  Why?  Because this often indicates the wind shear is light and the water is warm in the area where waves from Africa track through the tropics.

Since the current upswing in hurricane activity that began in 1995, early season development has occurred here 5 times: 1995, 1996, 1998, 2003, and 2005.  These seasons averaged 18 storms.   In the other 8 seasons, an average of 12.75 storms formed.  No matter how many storms form this season, keep in mind that it only takes one to ruin our summer.

Chief Meteorlogist Tim Heller returns Wednesday!

A Lesson From Bertha...and Humberto...and Alicia...

Bertha_07062008_2 Hurricane Bertha will never pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico, but the recent rapid intensification of this storm hammers home an important point: Be prepared.  On Sunday afternoon, weather satellites estimated Bertha's maximum sustained wind speeds had reached 60 mph, a solid tropical storm force.

Bertha_07072008 Then Bertha began to rapidly intensify as the storm moved into a low shear environment located over slightly warmer waters.  By Monday afternoon, the storm's pressure had dropped 50 millibars, sending the maximum sustained winds up to 115 mph.  In 24 hours, Bertha grew from a tropical storm into a powerful category three hurricane.

Rapid intensification is difficult to predict, making it a forecaster's nightmare.  Thankfully Bertha is out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, far away from land.  But imagine if this storm were sitting a few hundred miles away from the Gulf coast.  It's a scenario that has happened here before, Alicia in 1983 and Humberto just last year.  Both storms rapidly intensified before making landfall, catching many forecasters and, in turn, residents off guard.

The best way to not get caught off guard is to always stay on guard.  In other words, be prepared.

Tropics give birth to Bertha

Updated Friday Afternoon:

The second storm of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season formed early Thursday. Tropical Storm Bertha is in the far eastern Atlantic at this time but it is tracking toward the west.

The storm has strengthened a little over the past 24 hours and additional development is possible over the weekend. It is possible Bertha could become a hurricane by Monday or Tuesday.

Bertha_07042008Right now the storm is moving over water temperatures that are in the upper 70s, somewhat cooler than usually required for tropical cyclones. But as the circulation moves to the west it will encounter warmer water. Whether that will be enough to fuel additional strengthening will depend on the amount of wind shear.

The forecast track now brings the storm a little closer to populated areas. If Bertha tracks on the left side of the forecast cone, it could reach the northern Lesser Antilles and perhaps Bermuda later next week.  At this time, we still expect the storm to turn northward around the edge of high pressure located over the north Atlantic. Of course, the forecast is always uncertain when dealing with tropical systems and it will change.

You can get the latest position and forecast track of Bertha on our website. The data is automatically updated whenever a new forecast is issued by the National Hurricane Center.

Hurricane simulator built to tear homes apart

Students at the University of Florida are busy building homes and then blowing them apart using the world's largest hurricane simulator.

Hurricane_simulator_7The large wind pipes look like something you'd see on the space shuttle. And when they fire up the engines, it sounds like a giant tractor. This giant wind machine can create 120 mph hurricane-like winds.

At the same time high powered hoses spray water at different rates to simulate the effects of wind blown rainfall.

The students use this hurricane simulator to study the effects of the weather on buildings. Ultimately this ongoing research will help make homes stronger and safer.

This reminds me of the research they do at Texas Tech University where students research the effects of tornadoes on homes.

Ready Houston ....?

There's a big push to get Houston area residents ready for hurricanes... before they develop.

Houston_hurricane_meetingOn Thursday I participated in a round table discussion about the upcoming hurricane season at the Houston Emergency Center.  Houston city councilman Adrian Garcia organized the meeting. Mayor Bill White was there along with members of Houston's emergency response team.

Dennis Storemski from the Houston Office of Public Safety and Homeland Security briefed us on the new evacuation procedures.

The evacuation areas are now broken up according to zip codes to make it easier to communicate who needs to leave before the storm hits. Gene Hafele the Meteorologist-in-Charge of the local National Weather Service office explained that the evacuation maps were created based on the effects of a significant category 3-4-5 hurricane. With smaller storms, it's possible only parts of the area will need to leave.

Mandatory evacuations are called for people who live along the coast, where the storm surge could completely swamp the area with several feet of water. People who live inland, away from the coast, should consider sheltering at home.

But no one is going to tell you that you can't leave. If you are elderly, or have medical needs you should consider evacuating, even if you live outside of the storm surge evacuation area.

If you need help evacuating, you must preregister by calling 2-1-1. At this time only 1030 people within the city of Houston have preregistered for evacuation help. Sharon Nalls, the city's Emergency Management Coordinator explained that preregistration helps them figure out how many buses will be needed during an emergency. Reserve your spot by calling 2-1-1 right now.

The city has also produced a DVD called, "Are You Ready?" to help the community get ready for hurricane season. You can order a copy of the free DVD at www.readyhoustontx.gov

Preparation and planning ahead are critical. It was obvious from the discussion that many, many people at the city, county and state level have a plan to cover just about every problem that could come up before, during and after a hurricane.

How about you? Are you ready?

Searching for battery-powered HDTV's

At the Hurricane Workshop this past weekend there were a couple of questions about whether battery powered TV's will work when local stations switch to an all-digital transmission in February 2009. No, they won't work.

You'll need a new battery-powered HDTV, and there aren't many to pick from right now. I did a quick search and found one at Radio Shack for $200.

Or for about $300 you could buy a small portable generator from Home Depot. That would power a small TV, a few lamps and your refrigerator...for a few hours.

It was great to see so many people at the workshop. And thanks to those who attended the "Ask your local TV meteorologist" panel discussion. If you didn't get a chance to ask your question, email me directly and I'll be happy to help.  You can reach me at tim.heller@abc.com

Hurricane Center Director to speak at Houston Workshop

Bill Read, the new Director of the National Hurricane Center, will be making the keynote address at the Hurricane Workshop this Saturday in Houston.  Read told me his talk will focus on the Houston area and how we respond to hurricanes.

Having lived here for several years and being the former Meteorologist-in-Charge of the Houston-Galveston National Weather Service office, Read is very familiar with the Houston area. He called our situation "complex" because of "continued population growth, development in the evacuation zone, lack of any new lanes on main routes out of the area, lack of strong enough building codes to provide refuge."

He also told me he's going to talk about "the 2008 season forecast and why you should ignore it!"

Hurricane_workshop_logoThe 2008 Hurricane Workshop will be held Saturday, June 7 at the George R. Brown Convention Center in Houston.  Admission is free! Doors open at 9 AM.

Read will be addressing the crowd right before lunch. Other talks will be given by Houston Mayor Bill White and Harris County Judge Ed Emmett. Click here for the full agenda.

I will be participating in a special "Ask Your Local TV Meteorologist" panel discussion.

There's something for the whole family at the workshop. Make sure you visit the exhibit hall where local companies and agencies will have displays set up. And brings the kids!  They'll enjoy some hands-on weather fun in the "Kid Zone."

See you Saturday!

Hurricane poll shows coastal residents aren't prepared

A new poll from Mason-Dixon Polling and Research shows less than half of the people living along the coast have a family disaster plan. 1100 people living along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts were surveyed in early May. 

Here are some of the results of the poll:

42% of the people said they have a family disaster plan. 56% do not.

When asked if they had a hurricane survival kit? 67% said no. Only 33% of the respondents have survival kits ready with flashlights, extra batteries, first aid kits, extra medication and important papers.

Zip_code_evac_mapOnly 17% of the people taking the poll live in an evacuation zone and 87% said they would evacuate if ordered to do so by emergency officials.

30% indicated they don't prepare their home for a hurricane until a warning is issued. They might not realize that warnings are issued when the storm is within 24 hours of making landfall. Another 25% said they won't make any special preparations to their home at all.

Some of the results were hopeful. Of the 12% who said they are responsible for an elderly or disabled relative, 74% indicated they have a plan for them if a hurricane threatens.

When asked questions about basic hurricane knowledge, most of the respondents correctly knew that the storm surge causes the greatest loss of life, the safest place to ride out a hurricane at home is in an interior room of their house, and flooding is not covered by a standard homeowner's insurance policy.

The answers might be influenced by experience. 65% of the people taking the poll have never been directly affected by a hurricane.

But 77% expect this season to be as active or more active than last year.

Learn how to prepare for the upcoming season at the 2008 Hurricane Workshop this Saturday at the George R. Brown Convention Center in Houston. The all-day family event is free.

Hurricane Workshop this Saturday

Hurricane_workshop_logoThe 2008 Hurricane Workshop is this Saturday at the George R. Brown Convention Center in Houston. The workshop is hosted by the local National Weather Service office and runs from 9 AM to 4 PM. Admission is free!

There's something for everyone at this year's workshop. Bring the kids and let them explore the "Kid Zone" with some hands-on activities.  Almost 40 local companies and agencies will have a display set up in the exhibit hall.

Bill Read, the new Director of the National Hurricane Center will be making a keynote address, along with Houston Mayor Bill White and Harris County Judge Ed Emmett.

I will be participating in a special session called, "Ask Your Local TV Meteorologist" between 1-2 PM and 2:30-3:30 PM.

Organizers are asking the public to preregister and fill out a short survey before the workshop.

Hurricane Tracking Map available at Kroger

Tracking_mapStop by your neighborhood Kroger and pick up your  copy of the ABC 13 Hurricane Tracking Map...the biggest in Texas!

Inside you'll find this year's hurricane names along with a list of everything you need in your family survival kit. We also included a list of important phone numbers which you might need should we ever find ourselves in the path of a hurricane.

The map is free. Available while supplies last!

Hurricane season begins today

June 1 marks the official beginning of hurricane season.

Hurricane_season_graphAlthough the season usually starts off quiet, the tropics tend to become more active during the late summer and early fall months. On average, the first tropical storm of the season forms by July 10. The first hurricane forms around August 14. Based on data collected over the past 100 years, the peak of hurricane season is September 10.

Tropical_climatology_june During the month of June, tropical cyclones usually develop, not in the deep tropics, but in the western Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Within this area, development in the eastern Gulf is more likely. The prevailing storm tracks are shown by the white arrows on the map to the right.

These are just statistics, of course. Hurricanes can and do develop anywhere in the tropics, any time of year.

Hurricane season ends November 30.

Tropical Storm Arthur forms in the Caribbean

The first storm of the 2008 hurricane season (which officially begins Sunday) formed just as it crossed the coast of Belize early Saturday afternoon. Tropical Storm Arthur should weaken as it crosses the Yucatan peninsula. However, the circulation could reorganize and strengthen once it gets over the warm water in the Bay of Campeche.

Ktrkcarir_20080531_2The satellite shows a large area of cloud cover extending eastward across the Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center reports tropical storm force winds over 39 mph are possible up to 260 miles northeast of the center circulation.

Strong high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep Arthur moving westward. A second landfall is possible near Veracruz. None of the computer models suggest this storm will go north.

That same high pressure, by the way, is keeping us high and dry. We're forecasting highs in the mid 90s, near record levels, the next couple of days.

Interview with Bill Read, Director of Hurricane Center

Read_2shot2Recently I had a chance to talk one-on-one with Bill Read, the new Director of the National Hurricane Center and former Meteorologist-in-Charge of the Houston-Galveston National Weather Service office.

Here are some excerpts from that interview:

Tim Heller: I was talking with Hurricane Specialist Jack Bevens, who works at NHC, and he said every Director has a specialty. Max Mayfield, for example, spent a lot of time on TV doing interviews during hurricanes. What kind of Director will you be?

Bill Read: I really understand very clearly what we face in the local (National Weather Service) offices with the forecasts that are coming out and the uncertainties and all. My iteration with the forecasters will be on the impact aspect. OK, if we put the watch out here instead of here will it be better? Can we push ourselves and put it out a little earlier because we got issues with evacuation? I understand that.

Tim Heller: You said at the National Hurricane Conference in early April that during Hurricane Rita you realized we have a lot of work to do. What did you mean by that?

Bill Read: The vast majority of us don't prepare for these nasty things happening in life. It's just the way we are made up as humans I guess. Maybe 10% of the population actually has a plan for what they'll do in a hurricane. That leaves 90% that are going to be making their plan and reacting to the storm as it happens. You might not be planning to evacuate, but suddenly you see your neighbors packing up, and well...

Tim Heller: ...and we end up with the Hurricane Rita traffic mess.

Bill Read:  Exactly. The other thing we have to work on are the building codes. Even states with codes, there's a lot of variability and a lot of non-enforcement of codes...most of which fall substantially short of where we need to be if we're going to keep building in the coastal zone. And if we're not prepared and we're not building places to stay there...you can see where that's going. Inevitably we're going to get a storm that forms in the Gulf, becomes an Audrey, makes landfall, people can't get out of the way and we have a catastrophe.

Tim Heller: Yet we continue to build along the coast. Look at all the new construction on Galveston Island in the last couple of decades. Didn't we learn anything from Hurricane Alicia?

Read_interview_2Bill Read: 1900 should have been the teacher of that lesson. A storm of that magnitude is a Katrina like storm and the first row of houses is gone when one of those comes in. What about the high-rises? What's going to happen to them. The high winds in Wilma, even code built condos in Florida, higher up above the ground the winds exceeded code and bam! You lost windows, there was water penetration and serious damage. We just need to be aware that's going to happen.

Tim Heller: You previously said that this year the NOAA hurricane forecast will be "released with much less publicity." Yet, that statement has generated a lot of publicity.

Bill Read:  We've come to the conclusion from feedback we're getting is that there's too much emphasis placed on the season forecast, instead of preparing for the storm that's com gin toward you. There's no correlation between the number of storms that happen and you're community getting hit by a hurricane. Alicia is our example with only four storms that year. And Andrew in south Florida, with only six storms that year. There's plenty more to go with that, to get that point home.

Tim Heller: We're in an active hurricane period, people don't plans and we have problems with building codes. What makes a guy want this job?

Bill Read: I want to be where I can make a difference on this stuff. And I think a lot of things we have done right in Houston, in the way we all coordinate and work well together. Maybe I can bring some of that to a larger plain.

Read told me he plans to work at NHC for about five years and then retire back in Houston.

Flare-up in the Caribbean

Ktrkcarir_20080530Tropical Storm Alma, which developed in the eastern Pacific on Thursday, is weakening as it moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America.

The broad circulation around this storm extends northeast into the Caribbean Sea. The satellite image is showing heavy showers developing east of the Yucatan Peninsula. Right now, we expect this circulation to stay disorganized as it drifts westward over the weekend. Still, we'll be watching this area for possible development. Historically, early tropical systems tend to form in the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Caribbean, not the deep tropics.

Hurricane Alicia: Our Story

I asked several long-time ABC13 employees to share their stories about Hurricane Alicia, the category three hurricane which made landfall near San Luis Pass 25 years ago:

Alicia_ed_brandon_2 Ed Brandon

My most vivid memory of Hurricane Alicia was the brief period of calm that occurred at the Channel 13 studios as the eye of the storm apparently passed overhead.  We had been watching the palm trees. The wind blew them violently into an almost horizontal position.  During the “calm” the trees returned to their vertical orientation and there appeared to be no wind at all.  Then, a few minutes later, the trees again began tilting dangerously as the wind picked up as strong as before, but from a different direction.  During the calm, Don Nelson stepped outside into the courtyard and broadcast live what was happening.

Almost as vivid is the memory of driving around our near-southwest side area after the storm had passed.  When the hurricane winds finally subsided I left the station to drive to my nearby apartment.  My car was the only one on Richmond Avenue as I drove through the Greenway Plaza area toward the HISD administration building.  It appeared that I was the first to travel that stretch of road post-Alicia and the experience of swerving around large tree branches and downed power lines is still with me.

I discovered that there was no power at my apartment and decided that if I was to rest, it would have to be somewhere away from home.  I went to the Stouffer’s hotel (now the Renaissance) across the street from the Summit (now Lakewood Church) and stopped to get a room since it was apparent they had not lost power.  When I got there, all of the guests were in the lobby and I was told by the desk clerk that there would be no access to the upper floors, where the rooms were, until “after the storm.”  I told the guy that the worst was over and it was safe to send folks back to their rooms.  After all, I had just watched the storm on radar as it moved away from our neighborhood.  No amount of talking would convince the people at Stouffer’s that it was safe for me to go up to a room and get some sleep!  Thank God for the two-story LaQuinta Inn on Southwest Freeway.  I got a good six or seven hours of sleep and then lived there for about the next ten days.

Alicia_doug_brown_2 Doug Brown

The biggest impression I had of Alicia was how quickly she formed and became a Category 3 Hurricane.  As you know, we often track systems from infancy for days on end.  We actually have to fill time on the air with endless facts and forecasts that have to be updated every few hours. 

Not the case with Alicia.  She formed in the Central Gulf and quickly grew.  Over the course of about three days we broadcasters talked about a small disturbance that became a major threat.  That experience taught me that from day one, a small disturbance could become significant in a matter of hours. So be prepared and respect Mother Nature’s ability to get your attention quickly.

Alicia_tom_koch Tom Koch

As a relative newcomer to Texas at the time of Alicia, I really didn’t know what to expect from such a big storm and apprehension seemed appropriate.

I was assigned to cover the Clear Lake area and the night before the storm, we checked into the Nassau Bay Hilton where I spent the evening doing live reports for our station and phone reports for other stations around the country. When the storm moved closer, the windows began to shake and the power eventually went out and most people huddled in the lobby for the night, reporters included.

At daybreak we ventured out to find the overwhelming destruction right outside the front door: boats tossed across the road, water submerging the bridges and debris everywhere. We spent the morning shooting video and interviews and because we could not feed back a live report, we drove back to Houston through two feet of water on many parts of the freeway and pounding rain all the way. It was just the beginning of a long week for everyone. And it was the day I wished I’d never met a hurricane.

Alicia_melanie_lawson_4 Melanie Lawson

I was a brand-new reporter at Channel 13 when Alicia hit....I'd only been here for a few months.  When the News Director announced that we were in the direct path of a hurricane and all newsroom personnel was expected to work until it was over, I didn't even know what to expect.  I'd grown up in Houston, but the only real hurricane I could remember was Carla, when I was a very little girl.  And my only memory from that time was my father finding snakes in our backyard, after the storm moved through.

I was sent out with a live truck and told to go to different spots around town, set up and report back what we were seeing.  So in the driving rain and howling wind, we headed for the Texas Medical Center, where the water was rising by the minute and that normally busy section of town was virtually deserted.  As we put up the mast on our live truck, I could see the entire van rocking back and forth in the wind.  It was the first time that I felt really scared, especially when I saw all the debris whipping around in the blinding rain.
But my job was to get on the air and report back live, and somehow we did that.

The next few hours and days are a blur, as we all worked long past exhaustion -- watching the damage from Alicia with amazement....seeing the downtown skyscrapers raining down glass as their windows were blown out by the high winds, watching the bayous rise out of their banks, going to neighborhoods made virtually impassable because of all the downed tree limbs and power lines. 

But the crowning blow was when I finally got home, and discovered I was like hundreds of thousands of other Houstonians -- I had no power, and a huge tree was blocking my street.  It would be almost a week later before the power was finally turned back on, and the roads cleared in my neighborhood.  And the recovery was even longer for many other parts of town.

Alicia_deborah_wrigley_2 Deborah Wrigley

I remember thinking this storm was going to be an adventure- my first to cover as a reporter. My wonderful mother gave me 'the look', and said, "Deborah, this is not something to look forward to. Hurricanes are not fun."

Mom, as always, was right.

We were sent to Galveston. The other crews from the station were housed at the Galvez.  I and my photographer and engineer were told to stay at the Galveston post office.

We did the usual storm spectators stories during the day. Wind and surf were what would be expected.  But by 10 PM, the wind was too high to get a liveshot out.

Alicia_don_kobos_2 Don Kobos

I had only lived in Houston a year when Alicia hit and had not yet covered a hurricane in my reporting career….let alone one with the anger of Alicia.      There are several things I will never forget about that amazing experience.   

First of all was the drive to work the morning Alicia came ashore.   I drove down Westheimer around 5 AM and remember how everything was surprisingly dark.  There was no power, no lights, but there were plenty of live electrical and telephone wires dancing across Westheimer with sparks jumping from them everywhere.    As I listened to one of the radio newscasts as a cruised alone down the empty streets, an announcer came on the air and said there were reports a tornado had touched down at Gessner and Westheimer.   I heard that report as I was driving through the Gessner intersection on Westheimer.   I had a heavy foot that morning and made it to work with no difficulties.   

I was assigned to cover downtown Houston.  I thought that I was going to miss out on the biggest story of my career because I was not being sent to Galveston and the shore line where the wrath of Alicia would strike first.   That was not the case at all.   
I spent the next week doing stories from downtown Houston where dozens of glass skyscrapers faced millions of dollars of hurricane damage. 

That first morning photographer Jack Combs and I saw our lives flash before our very eyes.  As we drove down Louisiana into downtown in the middle of the high winds and torrential rains,  we could see debris…mostly glass from the giant skyscrapers….. filling the streets ahead of us.   Thinking visually as a most good reporters do, I encouraged Jack to step outside the car and take a few pictures.   As he stood a few feet away from the door, two giant pieces of thick window glass crashed though  the hood of our vehicle in the engine area.  A few inches to the left or right and either of us would have been struck and killed by the falling sheets and chunks of glass that were blown out of their windows and fell 20 to 30 stories to the ground.

Jack jumped into the car and we sped far enough away from the many glass skyscrapers that lined so many streets in downtown Houston.    After we caught our breath we reflected on how lucky we were and how you can never take anything for granted when covering a hurricane.

To share Your Hurricane Alicia Story, click here.

Tim Heller

Hurricane Alicia: Your Story

Alicia_your_story

"Hurricane Alicia: Her Story Today" will be rebroacast Saturdays at 5 PM and Sundays at 10 PM throughout the month of June on digital channel 13.2 and Comcast cable channel 314.

The title of the program is similar to the name of a special report we produced in 1983 following the landfall of that category 3 hurricane.

During the program we shared a couple of stories from the Eyewitness Storm Spotters who lived here when Hurricane Alicia made landfall.

What's your story?

Hurricane_alicia

How old were you when Hurricane Alicia hit? Did your family stay or evacuate? Do you remember what it was like when the storm moved through Galveston and Houston? Was there any damage in your neighborhood? How did that storm affect the way you respond to hurricanes today?

Click the "comments" button below and share your story.

NOAA: Busy hurricane season ahead

At the National Hurricane Conference last April, Bill Read, the new director of NHC told me the hurricane forecast would be "released with a lot less publicity this year." Instead of specific numbers, Read said, the forecast would state above normal or below normal activity and emphasize preparedness.

Someone must have over-ruled that decision.

Noaa_thumbNOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration which oversees the NHC issued an outlook for the upcoming season. Their forecast:

  • 12-16 Tropical Storms
  • 6-9 Hurricanes (Category 1-2)
  • 2-5 Major Hurricanes (Category 3-4-5)

Compare this year's forecast with last year's forecast.

On average 11 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes develop during the hurricane season. NOAA says there's a 90% chance we'll have a near normal or above normal season.

These numbers are also in line with the prediction made by Gray and Klotzbach.

The weather factors that would enhance hurricane development this year include La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean which produce weaker winds over the Atlantic and the warmer than normal water temperatures in the Atlantic, a cyclical condition that started back in 1995.

Remember, these are just numbers. In 1983 only four storms developed. But one of them was Hurricane Alicia, our last major hurricane.

Hurricane Alicia: Her Story Today

Alicia_sunday_1035Twenty five years ago the eye of Hurricane Alicia made landfall along the upper Texas coast. Although we've been threatened by many storms since then, Alicia is still the last major hurricane to hit this area with winds over 110 mph.

How much do you remember about Hurricane Alicia? Take our online quiz.

Have we learned anything over the past 25 years? The traffic jam we witnessed during Hurricane Rita in 2005 would suggest many of us still need to develop a hurricane plan.

Alicia caused about $2 billion in damage in 1983. New development along the coast and throughout southeast Texas would put the damage costs substantially higher if a similar storm hit the same location today.

It only takes one storm. Forget the hurricane forecasts. Alicia developed during a year in which only four storms formed all season!

This Sunday night, May 25, the Eyewitness News weather team takes a look back at Hurricane Alicia in a special report at 10:35 PM.

New study: Global warming not causing more hurricanes

A new study from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicates there is no connection between hurricanes and global warming.

Meteorologists have said for years that we are in the midst of an active hurricane period that started in the 1990s. It's part of a natural cycle.  But during the record hurricane season of 2005, many people studying climate change suggested global warming was to blame.

Hurricaneritainland NOAA, which oversees the National Weather Service, ran computer simulations that predict an 18-percent decrease in the number of hurricanes and a 27% decrease in tropical storms in the Atlantic basin by the end of the century...even if global temps continue to rise.

Thomas Knutson, one of the study's authors said, "It does not support the notion that increasing greenhouse gases are causing a large increase in Atlantic hurricane or tropical storm frequency."

Increased wind shear will make it more difficult for tropical systems to develop, they predict. And tropical storms that do develop will have trouble gaining strength if upper level winds are stronger.

Another researcher working on the project Isaac Held added, "Those models could be wrong."

Hurricane exhibit coming to Disney's EPCOT

Visitors to Walt Disney World's EPCOT will be in the eye of the storm later this summer when a new hurricane exhibit opens in the Innoventions pavilion.

Epcot "Storm Struck: The Tale of Two Homes" was announced at the Florida Governor's Hurricane Conference last week.  Working with the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes, Disney Imagineers will use 3-D video technology and surround sound to simulate a category 4 hurricane. Visitors will see how reinforcing the roof, walls and floor of a house can save it from the destructive power of a hurricane.

The new exhibit is expected to open in August 2008.

In the interest of full disclosure, Disney is the parent company of ABC which owns KTRK.

Hurricane names Dean, Felix and Noel are retired

The hurricane committee for the World Meteorological Organization retired the names of three major hurricanes that develop during the 2007 season. The names Dean, Felix and Noel will never be used again for tropical cyclones that develop in the Atlantic basin because of the devastation they caused.

Hurricane_dean While most people in the United States consider last hurricane season a "quiet year," over 300 people died in Central America and the Caribbean because of hurricanes. Both hurricanes Dean and Felix made landfall as category 5 hurricanes, something that has never happened since records began in the mid 1800s. Dean hit the Yucatan peninsula where 32 people died. Felix was responsible for 130 deaths in Nicaragua and Honduras. Noel was a late season storm that only reached category 1 strength, but killed over 160 people in the Caribbean and Bahama islands. Noel also produced widespread power outages and coastal flooding as it moved along the northeast coast of the U.S. and eastern Canada.

Altogether, 70 names have been retired since tropical cyclones were first named in 1953. The names Dean, Felix and Noel will be replaced with Dorian, Fernand and Nestor.

Satellite shows flooding from Myanmar hurricane

The death toll continues to climb in Myanmar in the wake of a major hurricane. Cyclone Nargis hit over the weekend with 130 mph winds. As of late Tuesday, the death toll had climbed to 22,000, with twice as many people believed to be missing.

Myanmar_beforeHigh resolution satellite imagery shows how much of the low-lying area was affected by the storm. In the top picture, taken April 15, you can clearly see the ocean and rivers in blue, as well as the fields and wetlands in green and brown.

SPACE

Myanmar_after_2The next image was taken on Monday. The blue shading shows floodwater covering about 20,000 square miles of Myanmar. Yangon, a city similar in population to Houston, is almost completely surrounded by water.

Nargis was the equivalent of a strong category 3 hurricane and moved in from the west. The storm was near peak intensity when it made landfall on May 2. The strong winds and a broad counter-clockwise circulation pushed a huge swell of ocean water into the Gulf of Martabon. As the eye made landfall south of Bassein, the 12-foot storm surge inundated the area which is barely above sea level. Most of the victims drowned.

Hurricane Hunter plane lands in Galveston

The Gulf Coast Hurricane Awareness Tour will make a stop in southeast Texas on Tuesday, April 15. Bill Read, the new Director of the National Hurricane Center and formerly of the Houston-Galveston National Weather Service office, will welcome students and the public at Scholes Field in Galveston.

P3_hurricane_hunterMore than 500 local fifth grade students will have a chance to tour the WP-3 Orion turboprop Hurricane Hunter plane and learn about tropical cyclones from meteorologists from NHC and the National Weather Service.

The public is invited to tour the plane from 3 to 5 PM.

I'll be at Scholes Field most of the day. Watch for video on 13 Eyewitness News and during our annual hurricane special airing later in May.

Dr. Gray raises his hurricane forecast

Dr. William Gray and his colleague Dr. Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University have revised their outlook for this year's hurricane season. Here are the updated numbers with the December outlook noted in parentheses:

  • Tropical Storms:  15  (13)
  • Hurricanes: 8  (7)
  • Major Hurricanes: 4  (3)

The CSU hurricane outlook was a bust the last two years.  And in the newly released 32-page report, Gray and Klotzbach offer this caveat, "we have yet to demonstrate real-time forecast skill for our early April forecasts that have been issued for the last 13 years. Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict this season's hurricane activity in early April."

So why publish the forecast?  "People are curious," they say.

The next update from Gray and Klotzbach will be issued Tuesday, June 3, 2008.

Final notes from Hurricane Conference

The 2008 National Hurricane Conference in Orlando wrapped up today with a bleak prediction from the insurance industry: a $100 Billion hurricane catastrophe is coming. The increase in population, construction costs and property values along the coast make the doomsday scenario more likely than in previous decades.

Of course, figuring out where that storm (or storms) will make landfall is less certain, much less certain.

Dr. William Gray and his assistant Dr. Phil Klotzbach took a few arrows and acknowledged they "haven't done so well the past few seasons." They won't be publishing an update to their December forecast until next week but did mention the numbers would either stay the same or go up. Without going into detail they said there are some "atmospheric signals" which indicate we could see above average activity this coming season.

Dr. Chris Landsea, a former student of Dr. Gray's, showed data which initially seemed to indicate global warming was causing an increase the amount of property damage along the coasts. But as mentioned on this blog before, when you factor in the increase in population along the coast, past storms would have caused much more damage if they hit the same locations today.

So can we predict the effects on global warming on hurricanes? The short answer is "no." Thomas Knutson, a NOAA research meteorologist, showed how even the best climate models can come up with completely different results depending on the data incorporated. "It is not appropriate at this time to make a likelihood statement attributing past changes in hurricane activity to increasing greenhouse gases or other human caused factors," he said.

I always learn a lot at these weather conferences. Often, my notes fill an entire notebook. I also saw some unique products that could help local homeowners and businesses survive a hurricane. I'll share those next week, after I unpack.

Workshops explore challenges of hurricanes

There were 44 different workshops scheduled today at the National Hurricane Conference in Orlando, Florida. Sessions covered evacuation, reducing the risk of damage and injury, recovery, insurance as well as hurricane forecasting and public awareness.

Meteorologists from the National Hurricane Center provided an overview of the different tools they use to forecast the intensity and track of tropical weather systems. They showed several examples of storms that didn't follow the model guidance or tracked differently than forecast. One of the factors that affects hurricanes moving through the Gulf of Mexico is the "Loop Current" which produces a pool of deep, warm water. Beginning this year, the hurricane computer models will incorporate that into the calculations which should improve the intensity forecast.

FEMA is working on a new communication system so "no matter what the crisis, life saving information will be quickly disseminated to the public," according to Martha Rainville, FEMA Assistant Administrator. The Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (iPAWS) will send alerts to subscribers using the phone, email and text messages. It has been tested in a few small areas and will be rolled out nationwide over the next several years.

I was disappointed by the workshop called "Who Needs to Evacuate for Wind?" Disappointed because the question wasn't fully answered. We know people who live in surge zones must evacuate. But those who live away from the coast can and should shelter in place.... except if they live in a mobile home or in a vulnerable structure (whatever that is), or if they have critical needs or could be stranded by washed out bridges and roads, etc.. etc. There isn't a simple, black and white answer to the question. One presenter explained "individuals are responsible for knowing their risk." But there's no information readily available to help inland folks evaluate their risk. We need to work on that.

The afternoon ended with lots of good news, however. The National Hurricane Center is implementing several enhancements to the forecast models which should improve the forecast and reduce the average error which will shrink "the cone of uncertainty." At the same time, we were all shocked to hear that only $1-2 million dollars is budgeted for hurricane research every year and that amount continues to get smaller. As one person in the audience said, "There are hammers on the Space Shuttle that cost more than that!"

Finally, congratulations to the City of Houston Emergency Management and CenterPoint Energy. The two agencies received an Outstanding Achievement Award for Public Awareness for the annual hurricane workshop held in Houston every year.

The conference wraps up tomorrow.




Getting ready for hurricane season

The official beginning of the 2008 hurricane season is still two months away, but there are people working behind the scenes right now, on the local and national level, to get ready for storms that could develop in the future. About 2100 people are attending the National Hurricane Conference in Florida this week.
Bill Read, the new Director of the National Hurricane Center, opened the general session today with a list of priorities. "There's a lot of work to be done," Read said he realized after he saw the public response to Hurricane Rita in 2005. His presentation stressed the rapid intensification of tropical systems (like Humberto in 2007) and the low skill computer models have in predicting the strength of hurricanes.

The Director of FEMA, David Paulison, explained how the federal agency has taken advantage of quiet hurricane seasons the last two years to establish teams and partnerships so the "first federal responders" are on the scene "within 12 hours" of a disaster. Paulison also assured attendees, many whom are public officials from coastal communities, that all positions within FEMA would be filled with "experienced, qualified people" as the government transitions to a new administration.

Morning rap sessions allowed professionals in various fields to share ideas and concerns. In the meteorology and media sessions I attended there was a lot of discussion about the seasonal forecasts, like the outlook from Dr. William Gray, and whether or not they should be broadcast. Others felt computer model guidance should not be shown to the public. I explained that on ABC13 we show the computer guidance on top of the forecast cone to illustrate the uncertainty in the track. As far as airing the seasonal forecasts, I explain that the numbers provide an outlook of what could develop and that it is "likely to change" just as the daily weather forecast changes as new data comes in.

Bill Read reminded us not to focus on the numbers. "It only takes one storm to ruin your day," he stressed. Some of our biggest hurricanes like Andrew (1992) and Alicia (1983) developed during otherwise quiet years.

2008 National Hurricane Conference

Hurricane_warning_flags Today, I'm en route to the National Hurricane Conference in Orlando, Florida. This annual meeting brings together meteorologists from the media, National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service, emergency managers, building and zoning engineers, and public officials from communities all along the Atlantic and Gulf coast.

Bill Read, the new Director of the National Hurricane Center and former Meteorologist-in-Charge of the Houston-Galveston National Weather Service office will address the crowd Wednesday afternoon. Other presentations will explore evacuation and sheltering needs, disaster recovery and response, and of course hurricane forecasting.

I'll be writing updates every day this week from the conference. I'll share with you what I'm hearing in some of the workshops. The final post on Friday will include the outlook for the upcoming hurricane season.

NOAA: Global warming not causing more hurricane damage

Meteorologists with the National Hurricane Center say the increase in hurricane damage is caused by an increase in the number of people living along the coast. The problem is not an increase in the intensity or number of hurricanes.

According to Chris Landsea, a meteorologist who has researched this topic since 1998, “There is nothing in the U.S. hurricane damage record that indicates global warming has caused a significant increase in destruction along our coasts."

KatrinaThe researchers studied the population, infrastructure and wealth along our nation's coast. While there are active and quiet tropical seasons, Landsea says, "the economic costs of land-falling hurricanes have steadily increased over time.”

Think about the new high-priced condos and beach homes built (or being built) along Galveston Island. Landsea's team estimates if the Galveston Hurricane of 1900 were to hit today the losses could reach $78 billion...simliar to the cost of Hurricane Katrina.

This is something that affects all of us. The company that insures your home, also insures homes and businesses along the coast.

The research team warns the economic cost of hurricane damage will continue to climb unless there's a change in the population growth along the coasts (not likely), and an improvement in the construction standards.

Houston man to lead Hurricane Center

Bill_readCongratulations to Bill Read, the Meteorologist-in-Charge at the Houston-Galveston National Weather Service Office. Bill has been selected to lead the National Hurricane Center.

The announcement was made today by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Bill has "spent 30 years of his career as a weather professional with NOAA dedicated to protecting lives from severe weather, much of it hurricanes and tropical storms," said one NOAA official.

Bill has been in charge of the local NWS office since 1992. He was appointed to be the Deputy Director of NHC after embattled Bill Proenza stepped down last summer.

In addition to being a nice guy, he plays well with others. We've always enjoyed a great working relationship with the Bill and his staff of meteorologists at the National Weather Service. He has also earned the respect of local emergency managers and public officials. Now the rest of the country will benefit from his casual, comfortable leadership.

Olga develops near Virgin Islands

Olga_2And you thought hurricane season was over!
(So did I!)

Subtropical Storm Olga has formed in the Atlantic, about 1000 miles southeast of Miami, Florida. The storm has cool temperatures in the core, so it's classified as a "subtropical" storm. But the radar data from San Juan, Puerto Rico shows a well-defined, closed circulation and buoy data nearby suggests winds are reaching 39 mph over the water.

Since 1851, only nine tropical cyclones have formed during the month of December in the Atlantic basin. In 2003, Tropical Storms Odette and Peter formed in December. Two years later, Tropical Storm Zeta formed late in the month and was tracked into the New Year.

Olga is expected to move westward and dissipate, south of high pressure located north of the circulation.

Early 2008 Hurricane Season Forecast

The folks at Colorado State University have issued their extended forecast for the next hurricane season. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray are predicting 13 tropical storms, of which 7 could become hurricanes. Three of the storms could be major hurricanes with winds over 110 mph.

The last two years, Klotzbach and Gray over-forecast the number of storms that might develop and they took a lot of heat for it. The outlook for next year is just slightly above the long-term averages.

The CSU forecast is usually updated several times throughout the season: early April, end of May, early August, early September and early October.

2007 Hurricane Season Review

2007_hurricane_tracks

This hurricane season was a typical year in terms of how many named storms developed in the Atlantic basin. But the storms were not as intense as usual. Several dissipated very quickly or never fully developed into hurricanes. Overall, 15 tropical storms formed, six storms became hurricanes and two of these were major hurricanes with winds over 110 mph. These numbers are close to the long-term averages.

The season started off early with Subtropical Storm Andrea forming May 9 off the northeast coast of Florida. Andrea stayed offshore and was a tropical storm for less than 24 hours.

Hurricane season officially begins on June 1, and Tropical Storm Barry developed on the second day of the season in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The circulation was a tropical storm for less than 24 hours and weakened to a depression before moving ashore near Tampa.

The tropics were quiet for over six weeks before Tropical Storm Chantal developed in the Atlantic Ocean, about 100 miles east of the North Carolina coast. Again, the winds were above 39 mph for less than 24 hours. Chantal developed and dissipated over open water.

Hurricane_dean_image_from_nasa The first real storm of the season was Hurricane Dean which developed in the deep tropics on August 13. A week later, the storm moved into the eastern Caribbean and strengthened into a major, category three hurricane. Dean stayed at category four strength with winds 145-150 mph for over two days as it tracked just south of Jamaica. The storm strengthened to a category five hurricane with 165 mph winds just as it slammed ashore near Chetumal in the Yucatan peninsula. Dean weakened while over land but strengthened back to category two strength before the second landfall between Veracruz and Tampico, Mexico on August 22.

During this same time period, Tropical Storm Erin developed in the central Gulf of Mexico. Like the first three storms of the season, Erin was a tropical storm for less than 24 hours. But Erin was a wide storm and the outer feeder bands brought heavy rain to southeast Texas. Over 9" of rain fell in eastern Harris County causing widespread street flooding. Creeks and bayous also flooded. Over 400 homes and 100 apartment units were flooded, mainly around Pasadena and La Porte. Three people died from the storm.

Hurricane_felix_image_from_nasa Hurricane Felix developed on September 1 just east of the Windward Islands. Felix moved quickly across the Caribbean Sea, just south of where Dean had tracked just two weeks earlier. The storm strengthened to a category five hurricane as it made landfall in Nicaragua.

Just after Labor Day, Tropical Storm Gabrielle developed between Bermuda and the East Coast. The storm brushed the North Carolina coast on September 9.Humberto_radar_from_nws

Hurricane Humberto was one for the record books. The storm developed just south of Galveston and strengthened from a tropical depression to a category one hurricane in less than 24 hours. Humberto made landfall near High Island on September 13. Winds estimated by the National Weather Service to be about 70-90 mph caused over $1 million in damage around High Island and along Bolivar Peninsula.  Five homes were completely destroyed and another 79 homes were damaged. Many trees and power lines were also downed along Highway 87. The high school and several businesses in High Island were also damaged by the west side of the eyewall.

Tropical Storms Ingrid and Jerry, and Hurricane Karen all developed and dissipated over the open water of the Atlantic Ocean.

In late September Hurricane Lorenzo developed over the Bay of Campeche. The storm drifted for a couple of days before making landfall in central Mexico, near where Hurricane Dean blew ashore a month earlier.

Tropical Storm Melissa developed about the same time in the far eastern Atlantic, just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. That storm also dissipated over open water.

The tropics were quiet for about four weeks and then suddenly Hurricane Noel popped up south of Hispaniola. Noel was a slow moving storm and dumped heavy rain on Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Cuba. Flooding killed 115 people. Over 24,000 people were evacuated in Cuba and about 2000 homes were damaged by flood waters. The storm eventually moved through the Bahamas and dissipated.

2007_hurricane_landfallsAltogether, four storms made U.S. landfall: Barry, Erin, Gabrielle and Humberto. Tropical Depression #10 brought rain to the Florida panhandle but never reached tropical storm strength.

Hurricane forecast issued at the beginning of the season by NOAA correctly predicted the number of tropical storms. But fewer hurricanes and major hurricanes developed than forecast because many of the tropical storms did not strengthen or weakened after they developed. The forecast from Dr. William Gray was off by three storms.

The National Hurricane Center writes a comprehensive report on each storm that develops. You can read the reports on the NHC website.

*Subtropical Storm Olga developed in early December, bringing the season total to 15 tropical storms.

New device could improve hurricane forecasts

Hurricane_humbertoThe surprise hurricane from this season was Hurricane Humberto which strengthened from a tropical depression into a hurricane in less than 24 hours. Humberto hit High Island on September 12 with 85 mph winds.

As I've stressed here in the Houston WeatherBlog many times, forecasting the intensity of hurricanes is still a challenge. But NASA has developed a new sensor that could improve the forecast. HIRAD can be mounted on a satellite or airplane. It will provide a high-resolution analysis of wind speed by measuring the froth on the ocean surface. According to one project designer, "HIRAD will see from above through a hurricane's heaviest rains and thickest clouds to measure the intense winds at the surface of the ocean." The stronger the wind, the more froth HIRAD will sense.

The first trial run could be as early as the 2009 hurricane season.

Hurricane Noel moves into the Atlantic

Hurricane_noelMore than 100 people have died in the Caribbean from Tropical Storm Noel. That storm drenched the Bahamas on Thursday. As of 10 PM, winds had increased to 80 mph and the storm was upgraded to a hurricane. Noel is the fifth hurricane this season.

Over the next 24 hours, Noel will lose tropical characteristics and become a large area of low pressure as it moves along a front draped over the east coast. Rainfall could still be heavy from Washington to New York this weekend.

Meantime, here at home, high pressure will extend our great weather a few more days!

Noel no problem for Texas

Noel_eir_satellite_2Tropical Storm Noel is a little stronger and tracking to the northwest. You can see in this satellite image that Noel is lopsided. Strong winds from the southwest are pushing most of the rain northeast and east of the storm center.

The forecast track takes Noel a little closer to Florida by Wednesday afternoon before turning to the north and northeast. Strong wind shear should keep the storm from developing into a hurricane. If the wind shear weakens the storm could intensify, of course. The water temperatures off the coast of Florida are still in the low to mid 80s.

High pressure over the continental U.S. will keep Noel out of the Gulf of Mexico and away from us. By the way, according to records maintained by the National Hurricane Center, no tropical storms or hurricanes have every made landfall along the Texas coast during the month of November. I think we're done with hurricane season around here.

Playing God with the weather

Hurricaneritainland_3Weather scientists are trying to figure out a way to weaken hurricanes or at least steer them away from populated areas. A report in a British newspaper highlights the work of two teams working on a solution. One idea is to sprinkle soot on the top of the storm from an airplane to disrupt the wind flow. Another idea is to create small rain-free clouds using dust that would cool the base of the hurricane.

Weather modification is nothing new. Around the turn of the century "hail cannons" were used to fire mortars into the clouds, believing the smoke would prevent hail from forming. The idea was eventually abandoned when the cannons proved to be ineffective.

The problem with weather modification is with the side effects; if you steer a hurricane away from one city, you could potentially steer it toward another.

Non-Tropical Storm makes Landfall

Fri_oct_05_22h09m32_2007MegaDoppler 13 HD picked up the circulation of a small low pressure as it moved in from the Gulf of Mexico about 8:00 PM Friday night. This is part of the large storm that we were tracking this past week.

Winds were blowing about 15-20 along the Texas coast when the little low made landfall near High Island. The storm was not a tropical system, but did bring tropical moisture that will produce scattered showers over the weekend. I don't think the whole weekend will be a washout. You will see some sunshine. But since we're dealing with tropical moisture, some of the showers that develop could be heavy.

Don't forget. You can track the storms using your web-enabled cellphone at www.abc13NOW.com

The Little Storm That Could

Gulf_disturbanceThe under-achieving weather system in the Gulf continues to spin westward. There are actually two different weather systems at work here. The upper-level low pressure is south of New Orleans and is producing rain throughout the southeast U.S. There is also a small low-level circulation, which I highlighted on this satellite image.

The smaller storm is moving westward toward Texas and could reach the coast Friday morning. There are no organized showers developing around the low at this time, so it can not be classified a tropical cyclone at this time. Still, there have been some gusty winds reported by buoys close to the storm. Some folks living along the coast might notice winds blowing 20-25 mph when the circulation reaches the coast.

We're also expecting some rain to develop across so