Hurricane Earl is tracking very close to the coast

The eye of Hurricane Earl will pass within 60 miles of the North Carolina outer banks later tonight.

Hurricane Earl is still a major category four storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Winds are estimated to be about 140 mph in the eye-wall of the storm.

While no part of North Carolina is within the forecast cone, they will no doubt feel the effects of this storm.  Hurricane force winds over 74 mph extend 90 miles out from the center of the storm. Tropical storm forces winds above 39 mph extend 230 miles outward. The wind field in Earl is almost as wide as it was in Hurricane Ike.

The forecast cone naturally attracts a lot of attention. But the cone only indciates where the center of the storm might track. The full effects of a hurricane usually extend well beyond the forecast cone.

The strong easterly winds on the north side of the storm will raise water levels by 3-5' all along the East Coast. Large waves will also roll ashore on top of the high water, causing more beach erosion and dangerous rip tides.  Rainfall amounts will range from 4-6".

Bumpy ride for Hurricane Hunters
Eyewitness News reporter Ted Oberg rode along with the Hurricane Hunters as they flew a special research flight through Earl. The data gathered on that trip and several others planned for this week will help meteorologists develop better forecast models.

Earl will affect the whole coast
The hurricane should continue tracking northward tonight and then turn to the northeast, helped along by a cool front moving across the country. The same cool front, by the way, that will bring us lower humidity and cooler mornings this weekend.

According to our exclusive FutureTrack forecast model, the strongest winds will reach North Carolina about 10 PM tonight, Washington D.C. around 6 AM Friday, New York about 12 Noon and Boston around 3 PM Friday.  Hurricane Warnings are now in effect all the way to Massachusetts, including Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.

That's not all
Farther east, Tropical Storm Fiona and Tropical Depression Gaston are still over open water.  Another tropical wave just off the coast of Africa could develop this weekend. You can keep track of these storms using our free online Interactive Hurricane Tracking Map.

Hurricane Earl threatens the East Coast

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of North Carolina and additional advisories are likely as Earl moves toward the East Coast.

Earl is a large storm. Hurricane force winds extend 90 miles out from the eye of the storm. Tropical storm force winds extend 200 miles outward. The strongest winds in the eye-wall surrounding the eye are estimated to be about 135 mph, making Earl a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

The forecast track shows Hurricane Earl tracking parallel with the East Coast.  But even if the storm center stays offshore, and it's still not certain it will, cities all along the East Coast could experience hurricane force winds, large battering waves and heavy rain squalls.

A big player here is a strong cool front moving across the country. If the front is fast enough, it might pick up Earl and push it away from the coast.  If the front slows down, the hurricane could track closer to the coast.

This cool front, by the way, will push into Texas as well. Strong thunderstorms are possible Friday when the front arrives but the sky will clear over the weekend.   This cool front will bring back lower humidity amd slightly cooler morning lows. 

Danielle weakens, Earl strengthens and Fiona forms

We are working three, possibly four, tropical weather systems. All of them are over the Atlantic Ocean and none of them are headed toward us.

 

Based on satellite data, winds in Hurricane Earl were estimated to be 135 mph on Monday. That makes Earl a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. But the strongest winds were in the eye-wall, over the water. Winds on Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands peaked between 60-75 mph earlier Monday.

Hurricane Earl will be tracking toward the East Coast this week and could strengthen even more.  While the center of the forecast track shows the storm staying offshore, the forecast cone is wide enough to include some of the major cities between North Carolina, New York and Maine.

Following in the wake of Earl is a new storm. Tropical Storm Fiona developed Monday afternoon, ahead of schedule. Based on historical hurricane data, the sixth storm of the season normally develops around September 8.  Fiona is not expected to be as strong as Earl and some computer models even show the storm dissipating in the next few days. 

Hurricane Danielle continues to dissipate as it moves over the cold water in the North Atlantic.  But another tropical wave has just emerged in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. We're watching this new storm for possible development later this week.

You can keep track of all the storms in the tropics using our free online Interactive Hurricane Tracking Map. 

Mix of sun and showers in Houston this weekend

A non-tropical storm in the Gulf could produce rain on Sunday. But there will be some sunshine on Saturday!

There's a lot of moisture gathering just off our coastline. The heavy showers, shown to the left on our enhanced tropical satellite, are congregating along the "August Cool Front" that moved through Houston on Tuesday. The front stalled offshore. A small area of low pressure is developing along that boundary will help lift it back to the north over the weekend.

There's a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. 
A slight change in the position of the front can have a big affect on our weather.  That's why the day-to-day forecast has been changing so much this past week.

Right now it looks like humidity will return to Houston on Saturday along with some fair-weather cumulus clouds.  We still have a slight chance of rain in the forecast, but most areas away from the coast will probably stay dry. 

With the front a little farther north, clouds will be thicker on Sunday and showers are possible across southeast Texas.  Temperatures will be a little lower because of the clouds and rain. But it will be muggy again.

Tropics are very active.
Out in the open water of the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl are stirring up the fish.  Danielle will turn to the north and pass near Bermuda on Saturday.  Earl is tracking a little farther south but it's still days away from getting close to populated areas.

And then there's another vigorous tropical wave developing just east of Earl. There's a high chance that storm could develop into a tropical cyclone over the weekend, named Fiona.  It's also forecast to stay over the open water, away from populated area.

You can track all the storms in the tropics using our free online Interactive Hurricane Tracking Map. Check the latest position, the forecast tracks and hurricane models.

Tropical moisture returns this weekend

The "August Cool Front" that's lowering our humidity could turn around and push some rain our way this weekend.

We'll enjoy a sunny day on Thursday with more "dry heat." Temperatures will still reach the mid 90s, but the afternoon humidity will only be about 30%!

Watching for tropical development
The cool front will turn stationary and begin to drift north starting Friday. Clouds will increase and eventually more rain will develop across southeast Texas.  Some of the hurricane forecast models suggest an area of low pressure could develop along the weak front, just off the coast of Texas, and strengthen into a tropical cyclone.

Hurricane Humberto developed in a similar way back in September 2007.

Either way, we'll end up with rain. Obviously we'll get more rain and stronger winds if the storm develops into a tropical system.

Say "Hello" to Earl
Meantime, Tropical Storm Earl developed in the far eastern Atlantic on Wednesday. While Hurricane Danielle is not expected to impact the U.S., it's possible that Earl could track a little farther west and potentially impact the eastern seaboard early next week.

Another wave farther east could develop into Tropical Storm Fiona, if a storm doesn't form in Gulf of Mexico first.

Types of tropical weather systems

We use a lot of different terms to describe storms developing in the tropics. Here's a quick explanation of what they mean.

A "tropical disturbance" is a disorganized storm.  This could be a cluster of thundershowers over the open water associated with a tropical wave or storms developing along the remnants of an old cool front. This is the first stage of development.

Once meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center detect an area of low pressure within the cluster of thundershowers, the storm is upgraded to a "tropical depression."

When winds reach 39 mph within some of the thundershowers, the system is upgraded to a "tropical storm" and given a name to help meteorologists keep track of it among others that could be developing nearby.

If the low pressure deepens, the storm will become better organized and the winds will increase. Once the winds exceed 74 mph, the storm is upgraded to a "hurricane."  The term "major hurricane" refers to a storm with winds over 110 mph.

Finally, the generic term "tropical cyclone" can be used to refer to a tropical depression, tropical storm or a hurricane.

Are the tropics starting to wake up?

The middle of August usually marks the beginning of the most active time in the tropics and there are indications that the weather over the water is starting to organize. Danielle is spinning over the central Atlantic and Earl could be developing right behind it.

But there are other spots we're watching as well.

We run a special version of our exclusive FutureTrack forecast model over the deep tropics twice a day and it's showing several areas of concern, one close to us. In addition to the three possible storms over the Atlantic, there could be some development over the Caribbean Sea and the western Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.

We're already carrying a 60% chance of rain in the forecast for the weekend but we might need to bring that up a little bit. A weak "August Cool Front" will move across Texas on Wednesday and then become stationary over the Gulf of Mexico. There's a possibility a little low pressure could form along the decaying front. Occasionally storms like this develop into tropical cyclones.

By the way, that cool front will break the heat wave!  It'll still be warm on Wednesday and Thursday but the humidity will be dropping.  "It's a dry heat," for a change.  The rain this weekend will keep the temperatures lower as well.

Tropical Depression #6 is not headed toward Texas

Tropical Depression #6 strengthened into a tropical storm Sunday evening. Computer models now suggest the storm could become a major hurricane later this week.

Previous discussion:

The sixth tropical depression of the season has formed off the coast of Africa. If it continues to strengthen it could become the fourth named storm, Danielle.  The forecast models suggest it could also become the second hurricane of the season.

Regardless, it's not headed toward the Gulf of Mexico.

At this moment, this storm is the only thing developing the tropics.  That's unusual for this time of year. This is the beginning of what is usually the peak of hurricane season. Most forecasters expected we'd have several storms under our belt by now.

There are lots of theories floating around the blogosphere as to why the tropics have been so quiet this year: too much shear, too much dry air, too much heat in the oceans and surrounding landmasses.  But honestly, no one knows for sure.

Of course, there's still about fifteen weeks left in this hurricane season. But if storms don't start popping up soon, we're all going to have some 'splaining to do!

Here comes Tropical Depression #5...again

The remnants of Tropical Depression #5 are back over the Gulf of Mexico and moving westward.

Didn't this thing dissipate last week?

Ah, yes.

But a little piece of that storm continued to spin over Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia and eventually it got caught up in the upper levels winds and was pushed back over the Gulf of Mexico.

I talked about this last week.

Although the storm is moving over warm water, strong wind shear should keep it from fully developing into a tropical storm. None of the dynamic computer models forecast any significant strengthening.

The storm looks like it's headed for a second landfall in southeast Louisiana-- same spot it made landfall the first time.Although a few areas along the central Gulf coast might have some gusty winds, this is primarily a rain-maker...for them and us! 

We're still showing a higher chance of rain on Wednesday and Thursday as the moisture moves westward.  With more clouds and rain filling the sky, we'll see less sun and it won't be quite as hot.

The rest of the tropics are strangely quiet.

Steam heat this weekend, but relief is coming!

Temperatures will be 3-5° hotter than normal this weekend. That doesn't sound like much until you consider our normal highs are in the mid 90s. 

Add the humidity and it gets dangerous.  The heat index will hit 103-108° both Saturday and Sunday afternoon. The National Weather Service has issued another Heat Advisory for the Houston-Galveston area. If you'll be spending a lot of time outdoors, watch for signs of heat exhaustion or sunstroke: heavy sweating, rapid heartbeat and nausea.

Temperatures heat up quickly
The ABC 13 Weather TempTrack shows a plot of the temperatures and heat index from Friday.  We started off warm, in the upper 70s. It was already over 90° by lunchtime with a heat index of 100°.  Temperatures topped out in the upper 90s mid-afternoon and the heat index didn't drop below 100° until later in the evening. Expect similar temperatures this weekend.

Relief could rain down next week
The remnants of tropical depression #5 could come back to life when the low pressure moves back over the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. If the storm tracks far enough to the south, over deep warm water, the storm could re-develop into a tropical cyclone. 

Either way, it should bring us some rain by the middle of the week and the thicker clouds will keep our temperatures down.  Highs might only be in the upper 80s or low 90s on Wednesday.  That would be "cooler" than normal!