Christmas weather outlook

Tuesday Morning Update:

Temperatures will be unseasonably warm today and tomorrow. The south wind will be blowing moisture into southeast Texas, delivering a few showers as well.

We still expect the cold front to arrive Wednesday night, dropping temperatures 20-25 degrees. Christmas Day will be sunny and cool, but not as cold as the forecast models were indicating a few days ago.

You can keep up to date on changes to the forecast on our website.

Friday afternoon Update:

It still looks like rain will fall on Tuesday and Wednesday, but the moisture will move out before the real cold air arrives on Christmas Day. The weather pattern could always change, but it's still doubtful snow will fall in Houston since the storm is expected to track well to our north.

High temps on Christmas Day should be in mid 40s, much cooler than it will be this weekend.

Keep the faith! There's still a storm forecast to develop the week after next that looks a little stronger. It's also tracking a littler farther south and has a little more cold air with it.

Previous Discussion Follows:

Dreaming of a White Christmas? The long range forecast models are showing a change in the weather pattern that will bring colder air, rain and maybe snow to parts of Texas next week and/or the week after.  Snow?  Yup.

The models are updated four times a day and the details change with every run. But some things have been consistently showing up in the data.

Very cold arctic air, perhaps the coldest of the season will be sliding across the country next week. We'll feel the chill by Christmas Day when afternoon temperatures might only reach the upper 30s/low 40s.  Before the cold air arrives, a storm moving along the jet stream will tap into moisture from the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico bringing rain across Texas. That's why I have rain in our forecast starting Tuesday of next week. The rain will continue into Wednesday, and maybe Thursday.

Here's where it gets tricky. If the freezing cold air blows south before the moisture moves out, we could see some snow mixed with the rain.  Or if the low pressure is strong enough to pull down some colder air from aloft, a few flakes could fall.  Furthermore, the long range models show a similar setup the week after next with another opportunity for wintry precipitation around December 29/30!

This wouldn't be the first time it snowed more than once in one season. According to data from the Weather Research Center it snowed twice in 1963, 1981 and 1985. It snowed three times in 1973!

Again, the models are changing all the time on the specific details regarding the weather over the next two weeks. But there is a slim chance of snow falling in Houston again this winter.

We can dream, can't we?

Comments

[Alan]

I'm hoping some snow comes - it would be nice if we could get more than the typical light dusting. I will be visiting up north next week though, so perhaps I'll get to see some real snow!

[Todd]

Well I hope we get some snow on Christams Day that would mean my Mother In Law wont get on the road. HAHAHAHAA

[Kelly]

I am dreaming of a white Christmas! Let it snow....let it snow....let it snow!

[Hector Herrera]

That sounds awesome, hopefully we get some snow on Christmas day. The only buzz-kill is that no one in Houston can drive on the icy roads.:p