Rain soaks some yards around Houston

Scattered heavy thundershowers brought much-needed rain to the Houston area on Friday. Heavy mornings showers dumped 3-4" of rain around Lake Livingston, forcing the National Weather Service to issue Flash Flood Warnings. It's been almost three months since those types of warnings have been issued around here.

The outflow from the morning storms helped kick off heavy rain in Houston by mid-afternoon. Many of our Eyewitness Storm Spotters  living along and north of Interstate 10 picked up 1-2" of rain. Very little, if any rain fell south of I-10.  That's the nature of scattered showers and why I only had a 40% chance of rain in the forecast.

Officially, only a third of an inch (.33") fell at Bush Intercontinental Airport.  We're still -7.35" below normal for the year. No rain fell in Galveston on Friday.

Isolated showers are possible Saturday within the residual atmospheric moisture. But your chance of getting wet drops to 20%.  Another weak front passes through Texas on Sunday so I'll raise the chance of rain a bit to 30% since the outflow from action north of us can set off storms around Houston.

The jet stream is shifting again and it looks like the hot high pressure is starting to build eastward again. This weather pattern brought us triple digit temperatures back in June and we could top out over the century mark again this coming week.  Even if the high temps don't hit 100°, it will certainly feel warmer than that with higher humidity also in the forecast.

New tropical wind shear maps on ABC13

It's another first for the Houston area! Look for the new tropical wind shear maps on ABC13 this hurricane season.

You've heard us talk about wind shear during our weathercasts and how it can affect the intensity of developing storms. Now, we can show you the shear.

The map above shows strong wind shear from about 18-25°N in the central Atlantic and across most of the Caribbean. And the tropics are quiet because of these strong winds. You'll notice small tropical waves developing in areas of weak shear. But as these tropical waves move westward and encounter stronger shear the little disturbances will weaken.

We're extracting the wind shear using sophisticated meteorological algorithms within our exclusive FutureTrack computer model.  In addition to showing the current wind shear, we can also project changes in the shear up to 60 hours into the future.

Hurricane season starts off quiet

So far this season there have been no named tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin, which also includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.  On average, the first tropical storm of the season develops around July 10 and the first hurricane develops around August 14.

Currently, strong wind shear is preventing tropical waves from strengthening. But if history is any indication, the tropics will become more active over the next few weeks.

Click here to watch the August hurricane outlook.

What does a quiet start to the season tell us about what's coming the next few months? Nothing.

Last year, the first storm of the season developed on May 31 and we ended up with sixteen named storms.  Back in 2004, the first storm of the season didn't develop until July 31 and fifteen storms developed that season, almost the same number as last year.

The table below lists the dates the first storm of the season developed over the past nine years and the total number of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes during the whole season.

	First Storm	Total Storms	Hurricanes	Major Hurricanes
2008	May 31	16	8	5
2007	May 6	15	6	2
2006	June 10	10	5	2
2005	June 8	28	15	7
2004	July 31	15	9	6
2003	April 18	16	7	3
2002	July 14	12	4	2
2001	June 5	15	9	4
2000	August 3	15	8	3

Hurricane Alicia, our last major category three hurricane and the first storm of the 1983 season didn't form until August 15.  In all, only four tropical cyclones developed that season.

The last category five hurricane to hit the U.S. was Hurricane Andrew. That storm also developed in mid-August and eventually made landfall in south Florida. Seven tropical storms formed that season and four developed into hurricanes.

In 1977, the first named storm of the season didn't form until August 29. That's the latest on record since we started naming storms.  That year a total of six storms developed and all but one strengthened into a hurricane. The first storm, Hurricane Anita, was also the strongest of the season.

Here's the list of names we'll be using this hurricane season.

Click here for the hurricane season forecasts from NOAA, Dr. William Gray and others.

Space Shuttle and ISS directly overhead tonight

Three man-made objects floating along in space will pass directly over Houston tonight. 

The Space Shuttle, the International Space Station and the Russian supply ship Progress will appear, in that order, one after the other.  Look up toward the northwest at 9:12 PM.  The three bright objects will move almost directly overhead and then fade away in the southeast at 9:18 PM.

While we have some clouds over Houston right now, these clouds should begin to dissipate by early evening. The sunset is at 8:17 PM so the sky should be dark, providing a perfect view of the triple pass.

Getting a chance to cool off

I just got back from a wonderful, weatherful vacation in the Midwest... where it's much cooler, and wetter, than Houston.

The sky was sunny and temperatures barely hit 80° when we were in Chicago. The TV weathercasters were showing climate stats listing how many days the high temperatures have been below 85° so far this summer. Oh, to have such problems.

Chicago is a candidate city for the 2016 Olympics, and they've been getting ready for years.  The city looks and smells beautiful; there are planters full of flowers and shrubs everywhere. Public art fills the parks and green spaces and the crowds gather to enjoy it. The city buses are all hybrids and the public transportation system is easy to maneuver. Houston, which has also tried to lure the Olympics, could learn a thing or two from Chicago.

It wasn't always this way. I went to Chicago quite often when I was in college and remember it being dark and dirty. This sprucing up doesn't come free, however, The sales tax rate in Chicago is 10.25%, the highest in the country!

After spending a few days in the Pretty, Windy City we rented a car and headed west to visit my family in Iowa. Along the way this weird, wet stuff started to fall from the sky.  Lots of it. Torrential blasts of rain fell, the likes of which I haven't seen since Hurricane Ike.

A couple of days later we got hit again while traveling across the state. This time the weather was so bad, we pulled over onto a side road and waited for the storm to pass. Large, marble size hail pelted the car for about 10 minutes, punctuated by occasional golf ball size hail. (The kids didn't like this part of the trip.) Later that night, a third storm hit us with high winds which caused some minor damage a few blocks from my folks' house.

I have to admit, it was exciting to be "in" the weather and not stuck in a studio.  It was also nice to not have to worry about tracking the storms on radar, updating the blog and Twitter.  And it was refreshing to feel air so cool, we had to wear sweaters at night, in July!   For me, this truly was a vacation from the weather.

Hot weather might cause migraine headaches

In the field of Bio-meteorology, many studies have suggested the weather can cause migraines.  Now we have proof.

Researchers from a medical center in Boston discovered a rise in the temperature can cause a headache. For every 9° increase in the temperature, the risk of a migraine rises 7.5%.

More than 7000 people were treated for migraine headaches at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston between May 2000 and December 2007. Researchers compared the medical records with weather reports. Although air pressure changes are commonly thought to cause headaches in some people, this study did not prove that.  Air pollution wasn't a factor either.  But when it got warm, the number of  migraines climbed.

Doctors don't completely understand migraines, so figuring out how a change in the temperature causes them is not clear either.  One theory is the warmer weather lowers blood pressure which affects how blood flows around the brain.

Galveston's hurricane anniversary plans

The city of Galveston will mark the anniversary of Hurricane Ike with a series of city-wide events.

"Revival and Reflections" will begin Tuesday, September 8, the anniversary of the Great 1900 Storm and continue through Sunday, September 13, the anniversary of Hurricane Ike.  Special concerts and exhibits will take place all week, all over the island.

The week of activities will culminate with an "Evening of Remembrance" in historic downtown Galveston. Enjoy live entertainment, a special photo display showcasing the island's recovery, and a final showing of "Ike: The Documentary" a movie produced by Ball High School students.

Ideas to weaken hurricanes before they make landfall

What if we could have caused Hurricane Ike to weaken before it made landfall?

Researchers from Hebrew University in Jerusalem  have applied for a patent for their idea to blow smoke into hurricanes to create mini-water droplets that are too small to become raindrops.  Using computer simulations the process seems to shift some of the energy to the edge of the storm, lowering wind speeds near the eye.  The scientists determined it would take up to ten cargo planes to carry the equipment needed to smoke out one hurricane.

Then there’s Bill Gates, the creator of Microsoft. His team of entrepreneurs applied for a patent for their idea to use large floating devices to transfer warm water from the ocean surface to cooler depths, away from developing hurricanes. This method would also require several large vessels, positioned over a wide area.

These ideas exist only on paper right now.  But that’s where most good ideas start.

You should get wet this weekend

I almost have trouble believing this myself, but it seems like all the weather patterns are coming together to bring us thundershowers this weekend.

Over the last few days, the upper high pressure that pushed temperatures over 100° has been shifting westward. In turn, a deep long area of low pressure has been developing in the eastern U.S.  This is allowing a cool front to slide southeast toward Houston. It arrives on Saturday.

Initially the storms on MegaDoppler 13 will be scattered, hit-and-miss showers so you might hear the thunder but not get the rain.  But larger areas of rain are more likely once the front reaches us.

Showers will be developing along the front and sliding southeast. A round of rain is possible overnight and additional showers should develop Saturday and Sunday.  With the front stalled across southeast Texas, additional rain should develop next week.  You'll probably need your umbrella a couple of times this weekend.

The clouds and showers will keep us from warming into the upper 90s and the position of the front will determine whether we enjoy warmer tempers in the 90s or cooler temps in the 80s. We're expecting more seasonal temperatures in the low to mid 90s this weekend. For now, we're cutting it down the middle and forecasting a high near 90° early next week.

Drought conditions worsen in southeast Texas

The latest analysis of drought across Texas shows the conditions are getting worse. No surprise given the lack of rain.

All of Harris county west of I-45  and most of Galveston county is classified extremely dry now.  The ground is even drier in Washington and Brazos counties, southern Colorado and Fort Bend counties and across Brazoria, Matagorda and Wharton counties. It is severely dry in eastern Harris County, most of Montgomery and Liberty counties and across Walker and San Jacinto counties.

The National Weather Service reports the last time College Station had measurable rain was on May 24!  Houston is more than seven inches below normal on rainfall this year. Galveston is more than ten inches behind.

There's rain in our forecast for the next several days, but it probably won't be a drought buster.  Initially just scattered showers will dot the area. More coverage is expected when the cool front pushes into Houston this weekend, producing more rain and dropping our temperatures back to normal.