Record heat keeps tropical weather away

Updated Monday morning: The tropical wave has dissipated. There are still a few residual showers but development is unlikely at this point.

Some more good news: an influx of moisture toward the end of the week could produce a few more showers around here. Data is still coming in from the morning forecast model runs. Check back for an update this afternoon.

Previous discussion follows:

Temperatures will hit record highs again today, for the fifth time in six days. Saturday's high was "only" 101° which was one degree below the record high. What concerns me is the records we're breaking were all set in 1980, the hottest summer on record.

The bubble of hot air is good for one thing: it keeps hurricanes away.  The tropical wave in the northwest Caribbean is moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico now.  Northerly wind shear has kept the storm from becoming organized, but there's still a slight possibility it could strengthen this week if/when the shear weakens. 

There's no consistency among the various forecast models. On Friday, most of the guidance showed the weak wave tracking northeast toward Florida once it cleared the Yucatan Channel.  Late Saturday, the models shifted 90° and showed the storm tracking toward northern Mexico or south Texas. Today, the models are split between both possible scenarios.

I still think the upper high over Texas will keep this storm away from us.  Is that a good thing? While you never wish for a hurricane, we do need the rain.

One thing is fairly constant: while most of the models show the wave developing into a tropical storm, none of them predict a hurricane.  Then again, intensity forecasts are not reliable.

New this year, I'll be posting tropical weather updates on Twitter, a free service.  Follow "abc13weather" on Twitter.

Comments

[Mike]

It looks like the wave has deminished some as of today (Mon). Do you still think it will gather strength? It looks as though the computer models have dropped the system too and now it's hard to find where the "rain maker" will be headed. Do you think we will see "any" rain from this system here in SE TX, or do you think it will all go towards Florida like they are saying? Thanks Tim!

RESPONSE from TIM HELLER: While another tropical wave could always develop in the Gulf or Caribbean, that particular wave has dissipated. I'm seeing an increase in atmospheric moisture over the Gulf this week which will drift north and bring us some showers by Friday and Saturday. While the rain chances in our forecast are pretty low, new data suggests we could raise the chance of rain. Given the drought conditions we're in, I want to make sure showers are likely before we take the numbers higher.