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« August 2008 | Main | October 2008 »

Tropical Storm Laura taking a European vacation

Laura_forecast_trackWay out over the cool waters of the Atlantic Ocean, a little tropical storm named Laura is spinning away. This cyclone is not a concern for populated areas... in North America.  But tropical storm force winds could be blowing in Ireland and Great Britain this weekend.

The water temperatures are about 65-68°F so Tropical Storm Laura will quickly transition into an "extratropical storm." It will lose its warm core, tropical characteristics but maintain the circulation and strong winds as it tracks eastward.

If it holds together, 40-50 mph winds are possible in Dublin, Glasgow and other European cities by Saturday.

Hurricane X: What will you do next time?

Ike_banner

weatherblog.abc13.com

It's been two weeks since we woke up and saw the damage left behind by Hurricane Ike.

Our friends along the coast are seeing first-hand what's left of their homes. Many neighborhoods around Houston are still dark without power. And almost every street is lined with piles of tree branches, broken fences and debris. Life is slowly getting back to normal, although it's a new "normal."

Although there's still nine weeks left in hurricane season, the movement of cool fronts into Texas is usually a sign that the season is over for us. But there's always next year.  And there's always next time. The next storm might be next year, it might be five or ten years from now. Or it might be another 25 years from now.  But there will be a next time, we know that much.

John Nielsen-Gammon, a meteorology professor from Texas A&M University, wrote a thoughtful editorial for the local newspaper titled "Next One Could be Worse." Some highlights:

Consider the wind damage in your area, and then consider what would have happened had the winds been three times more powerful. That's the difference between a Cat 2 and a Cat 4. The damaging power of the wind increases much faster than the wind itself.

If you want to build a home to survive the passage of a hurricane, you can do so. But what's the point if the roads all get washed away, the power is cut off and the mold has a three-week head start? Not only does the house need to be resilient, but so does the community.

Meteorologists are desperately grappling with the issue of how to properly convey the uncertainty of forecasts to the public in a way that's easy to understand...People need to know how rapidly the water will rise, and when evacuation will become impossible. Not enough people on Bolivar Peninsula knew that the escape routes would be blocked by Friday morning.

Next year, many people will be thinking, "My home survived Ike, so now I know my home is OK in a hurricane." Ike was a big storm. A lot of neighborhoods experienced Cat 1 strength winds, but only a few neighborhoods experienced Cat 2 winds. If you didn't get directly nailed by the eyewall, don't be thinking that your home can survive any Category 2 storm just because it survived this one.

So next time a hurricane is headed toward the Houston-Galveston area, what will you do differently, if anything? Will you stay? Will you go? Will you plan for a longer period of time without water and electricity? Will you buy shutters or plywood to protect your windows? Will you trim your trees at the beginning of the season? For the sake of this discussion, assume another storm similar to Ike is headed this way.  How will you respond compared to what you did or didn't do the days before Ike made landfall?

Post your comments below.

Tropical Storm Kyle and maybe Laura, too

East_coast_stormsThe tropical wave north of Puerto Rico strengthened into Tropical Storm Kyle on Thursday. The cyclone is forecast to track northward and could become a hurricane this weekend.

Meantime, another swirl of clouds off the east coast is still producing strong winds, coastal flooding and high surf. But the internal structure of the storm is not truly "tropical" so it remains unnamed. There is still a possibility this system could become a tropical storm. The next name on this list is Laura.

For the latest position and forecast track of active storms, check our main weatherpage.

Sorry, I lost my head

BillboardIn the battle of Ike vs. Tim, the hurricane won. And I'm sorry to say, I lost my head.

A viewer sent me this picture of an ABC13 billboard along the Southwest Freeway. Sometime during the storm, my head flew off.  I chuckle to think of what might have happened to it.

If you find it, let me know. I'll give you an ABC13 baseball cap to cover your head... if you return mine.

New images of Ike

Ike_cimss_trackThe Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies made a composite image of Hurricane Ike from its humble beginnings through landfall in Galveston. Before the storm reached the Caribbean islands it was a tightly wound hurricane with 120-135 mph winds. It was physically a larger storm which spread the wind over a wider area, creating the enormous storm surge.

Click on the graphic to the left to see a larger version. The time-stamp is in UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) which is five hours ahead of our local time.

NASA and NOAA created a movie file showing the satellite loop of the entire storm track. You can view the movie here.

Make sure and check some of the other "Recent Posts" listed on the right side of this webpage to see the before-and-after photos and aerial pictures showing the damage from Hurricane Ike.

New York City Hurricane?

Tuesday afternoon update: The forecast track is now farther east with this little system tracking more toward Nova Scotia, instead of New York City. Of course, that could change again.

Previous discussion follows:

Invest93_modelsThe tropical wave near the Dominican Republic will produce life-threatening flash flooding through Tuesday. After moving away from the Caribbean islands and into the Atlantic, the system could develop into a tropical storm by the middle of the week.

This storm isn't headed into the Gulf. The upper level wind flow will keep it from moving our way. It's headed north and could strengthen as it tracks toward...New York City?!

The computer models, including two that we have found to be most reliable, suggest this little tropical wave could become a hurricane by Wednesday.  Given the cooler ocean water north of Cape Hatteras, it's unlikely the storm would retain hurricane strength as it moves north. But there is a chance tropical storm force winds could buffet the east coast by the end of the week.

Despite what most people think, New York City is not immune to hurricanes. Usually by the time tropical cyclones reach that area they have weakened to tropical depressions.  But the "Long Island Express" slammed into the city with category three winds in 1938. Hurricane Gloria was a category two when it moved right up Long Island in 1985. Bertha was a tropical storm by the time it reached New York City in 1996.

A big storm hitting the northeast could affect our recovery efforts; the focus would shift away from southeast Texas faster than you can say, "FEMA."

Hurricane Ike Storm Report

I knew we were in trouble when I saw video of waves crashing over the seawall in Galveston. And that was early Friday afternoon, twelve hours before Hurricane Ike made landfall. The wind was blowing from the north, yet the waves were rolling in from the south, against the wind.

Ike_complete_track_2Two weeks earlier, Ike was a mere tropical wave off the west coast of Africa. On September 1, the winds were estimated to be over 39 mph and the tropical storm was given a name. We weren't too concerned about Ike at the time because we were busy tracking Hurricane Gustav as it moved toward Louisiana and Tropical Storm Hanna was threatening the east coast. A week later things had changed. On September 7, Ike strengthened into a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. From there it tracked across Cuba, into the northern Caribbean Sea and then made a second landfall on the west side of Cuba. When it emerged into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, September 9, Ike was a weaker storm with winds blowing about 80 mph.

Ike_hires_sat_image_smaller_2By the time Hurricane Ike moved into the middle of the Gulf, it looked powerful on the satellite. Yet Hurricane Hunters couldn't find winds stronger than 100 mph. However, they did find tropical storm force winds covered a large area, extending 275 miles out from the center of the storm. Just beyond our horizon, buoys were bouncing around in twenty foot waves.

Originally, the "cone of uncertainty" covered the entire western Gulf with the center track aimed toward the upper Texas coast. Then on Monday, September 8, the National Hurricane Center made a big change in the forecast; redrawing the track toward southern Texas put the focus on Corpus Christi. Evacuation orders were given and contraflow lanes were set up. But that didn't last. 24 hours later the forecast track shifted again toward Matagorda Bay. And from there, the track continued to inch north until late Thursday, when it zeroed in on Galveston. Local officials first posted voluntary evacuation orders for the coastal areas. Once it became obvious that the track wasn't going to change the evacuations became mandatory.

Ike_vs_ritaEven then, many people expected the storm to shift east and go into Sabine Pass or southern Louisiana. That's what Hurricane Rita did three years before. We were also concerned that Hurricane Ike would intensify like Rita when it crossed the deep warm water in the middle of the Gulf. But dry air and wind shear on the left side of the storm prevented it from getting stronger. Rita and Ike were completely different storms with entirely different results.

Ike_path_2Hurricane Ike made landfall in Galveston at 2:10 AM, Saturday, September 13. When the eye was moving over Galveston, the front part of the eyewall was hitting Houston. Ike turned north after crossing the coast with the center of the cyclone tracking over eastern Harris County. That put the city of Houston and most of Harris, Montgomery, Galveston and Brazoria counties in the eyewall where hurricane force winds blew for several hours.

Click here to watch a radar loop of Hurricane Ike making landfall.

Click here to watch a color-enhanced satellite loop of Hurricane Ike.

Long before the strongest winds started to blow and before the heavy rain started to fall, the water level along the coast started to rise. The surge was moving in. This sudden rise in the water level is the most destructive, dangerous and deadly part of a hurricane.  Ike was unique because the winds were category 2 strength at landfall, while the storm surge was as powerful as a category 4 hurricane.

We heard from a judge in Chambers County who estimated the water at the courthouse was up to 20' high. A trusted weather observer in Jamaica Beach told me the water in his area was over 14' deep.

Here are some preliminary storm surge reports from the National Weather Service:

  • 14.24' at Sabine Pass near the Louisiana Border
  • 13.37' at Texas Point near the Louisiana Border
  • 12.64' at Pleasure Pier in Galveston
  • 11.95' at Eagle Point near San Leon (This gauge failed at 1 AM.)
  • 11.23' at Rollover Pass on Bolivar Peninsula (This gauge failed at 1 AM.)

Some of the traditional water level gauges failed during the storm because of the high winds and waves, but a USGS research team installed special surge sensors along the Gulf coast prior to the storm. Click here to read the full report.

The storm surge caused major damage all along the upper Texas coast from Surfside Beach, along Galveston Island, eastward to Bridge City and Orange near Beaumont.

Crystal_beachBolivar Peninsula was on the so-called "dirty side" of the storm where the wind and storm surge are the worst. The long, narrow finger of land, once covered with beach homes, suffered catastrophic damage. Most buildings were heavily damaged or completely washed away. Before and after photos taken by a USGS research team shows the large number of homes destroyed by Hurricane Ike.

The view is the same along the entire peninsula. In Gilchrist, only one house was left standing after the storm.

weatherblog.abc13.com

Balinese_room_2The city of Galveston was also swamped by the storm surge. The 17' seawall was built after the 1900 hurricane to protect the city and it worked as planned. But the powerful surf eroded most of the sandy beach in front of the seawall. The waves also tore apart the historic Balinese Room and washed the debris into one big pile. Most other Galveston landmarks survived the storm.

The backside of the island is lower and, as forecast, water flowed into Galveston from the bay side. There was at least a foot of water in the first floor of UTMB hospital. Several feet of water flooded the Strand shopping area. 

Toward the west end of Galveston island, sand-filled "geotubes" were torn apart by the waves early on Friday. Several feet of sand was eroded from under many beachside homes.

The storm surge also pushed water into Galveston Bay and also flooded many homes in Baytown, Kemah, Smith Point and other bayside communities. Before the storm, we were concerned that water levels could be higher in communities along the north side of the Bay. Final surge numbers will be coming later after all the data is analyzed.

Megadoppler_13_landfallWhat the water didn't wash away, the winds tore apart. Wind damage was reported throughout the Houston area and surrounding suburbs. Sudden gusts within the eyewall caused substantial damage to many homes and businesses. Where roofs were torn off, wind driven rain soaked everything inside. Trees were toppled, power poles were pushed over and transformers exploded in bright blue flashes as Ike blew through. Power was knocked out for almost 90% of the people living in southeast Texas.

Ike_max_windsThe National Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory created a map showing the maximum sustained winds from Hurricane Ike. I mapped the data onto one of our weather maps so you can estimate how fast the winds were blowing in your neighborhood. The black line down the middle of the map shows the track of the center of the storm.

While the strongest winds were on the right side of the track where you would expect them to be, over half of Harris County was hit with hurricane force winds over 74 mph. There was a pocket of winds over 84 mph in the northern part of Harris County, all of Galveston county, most of Chambers and Liberty counties, and southern Polk and San Jacinto counties.

Here are some preliminary wind gusts reported by the National Weather Service. Wind speeds over hurricane force (74 mph) are in bold:

  • 83 mph at 12:36 AM in Freeport
  • 73 mph at 12:38 AM in Anahuac
  • 72 mph at 1:00 AM at Pleasure Pier in Galveston
  • 89 mph at 1:00 AM near San Leon
  • 61 mph at 1:08 AM at Hobby Airport
  • 82 mph at 1:24 AM near San Leon
  • 82 mph at 1:27 AM in Anahuac
  • 75 mph at 2:05 AM at the University of Houston
  • 83 mph at 2:15 AM at Hobby Airport
  • 74 mph at 2:20 AM in Pasadena
  • 64 mph at 2:29 AM at Bush Intercontinental Airport
  • 102 mph at 2:45 AM in Anahuac
  • 80 mph at 2:54 AM at the University of Houston
  • 81 mph at 3:30 AM on a buoy 20 miles east of Galveston
  • 82 mph at 4:00 AM at Bush Intercontinental Airport
  • 78 mph at 4:20 AM at Pleasure Pier in Galveston
  • 72 mph at 5:00 AM in Dickinson
  • 92 mph at 6:10 AM at Hobby Airport

These wind speeds were measured at established weather stations. During the final analysis, we might discover winds were actually higher in some locations. The National Weather Service will be examining data from weather stations scattered around the community. They will also look at archived radar data to determine how fast the winds were blowing.

Early estimates indicate Ike might have caused as much as $25 billion in damage possibly making this the third costliest hurricane in history, behind Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992. But the total economic impact will likely be much greater when you factor in lost wages, higher insurance rates, the affect on tourism and the costs to restore the beach along Galveston Island.

Now, everyone who lives in southeast Texas has lived through a significant hurricane. There was Hurricane Carla in 1961. Hurricane Alicia in 1983. Now we have Hurricane Ike.  We have a new reference point. Future hurricanes, and there will be more, will always be compared with this one.

Based on the extreme damage caused by Hurricane Ike, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration retired the name Ike in early 2009.

The National Weather Service has written a technical report on Hurricane Ike.

The National Hurricane Center also published a complete report on Hurricane Ike. You'll need the free Adobe Reader to read this report.

To view stories which aired on 13 Eyewitness News before, during and after the storm, visit our video library.

Additional blog posts with updated information:

Compare our forecast issued before the storm with what really happened.

More photos of damage from Hurricane Ike

I've been looking through all the aerial photos taken by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the damage caused by Hurricane Ike. Here are some images showing how popular Galveston-area landmarks fared in the storm:

Ike_satellite_schlitterbahn_3It looks like the large white tarps that covered the picnic areas at Schlitterbahn were torn apart by the wind. The lazy river and other pools are filled with dirty flood water.

weatherblog.abc13.com

weatherblog.abc13.com

Ike_satellite_moody_gardens Next door at Moody Gardens the pyramids made it through the storm, but debris is scattered around the park. This popular tourist attraction is protected from the storm surge because it's located on the backside of the island.

weatherblog.abc13.com

weatherblog.abc13.com

Ike_satellite_stewart_beachStewart Beach is one place where there is still some sand along Galveston Island. The raging waves eroded most of the sand elsewhere along the seawall. The water pushed debris up along the street which is piled several feet high.

weatherblog.abc13.com

weatherblog.abc13.com

Ike_satellite_fishing_pierThere's not much left of the Fishing Pier along Seawall Boulevard, across from the miniature golf course. The bait shop is still there, but it's damaged and most of the pier is gone.

weatherblog.abc13.com

weatherblog.abc13.com

Ike_satellite_end_of_seawallAnother popular fishing spot is at the end of Seawall Boulevard. The raging waves from Ike tore apart the road behind the seawall and pushed debris inland for about a hundred yards.

weatherblog.abc13.com

weatherblog.abc13.com

Ike_satellite_texas_city_dike_2The Texas City Dike is the "World's Longest Man-Made Fishing Pier" according to the city's website.  It is also part of Texas City's flood control system. And it worked. The dike protected the city, although it did sustain some damage.

weatherblog.abc13.com

weatherblog.abc13.com

Ike_satellite_kemah_boardwalk_2The Kemah Boardwalk looks pretty good from this angle. But a closer look shows the area is littered with broken amusement park rides now. Horses have been ripped off the carousel, cars are dangling upside-down on the ferris wheel and the track for the little train have been torn up.

weatherblog.abc13.com

weatherblog.abc13.com

Ike_satellite_houston_yacht_club_3There's a lot of money sitting on the shores of the Houston Yacht Club. Boats floated from their docks when the surge moved in and were piled up along the storm. Many were left on land when the water receded.

weatherblog.abc13.com

weatherblog.abc13.com

Earlier this week, I posted another article showing some of the more extreme damage caused by the storm surge.  The USGS office has also released more incredible before and after photos on their website.

The snapshots above were cut from much larger files that cover a wider area. There is a huge collection of these aerial photos taken by NOAA the day after Ike made landfall.

Before and After Ike Photos

A research team from the U.S. Geological Survey just returned from a mission to survey the affects of Hurricane Ike. Two new before-and-after photos were released today. More will be coming within a few days.

Usgs_bolivar_before_2_2This photo shows what Bolivar Peninsula looked like on September 9, 2008, five days before landfall. Notice all the green grass, the small beach area and the homes along the coast.

weatherblog.abc13.com

The yellow arrow is simply a point of reference.

weatherblog.abc13.com

Usgs_bolivar_after_2The second photo was taken two days after landfall. This area was swamped by a storm surge which was at least 14' deep. (Final surge measurements will be available after a storm analysis report is finished.) There is no grass left near the coast, the sand was pushed back across the highway and most of the homes are damaged or completely gone.

weatherblog.abc13.com

The famous Balinese Room along the seawall is gone now...and so is the beach!

New condominiums built on the east end of the island now sit close to the water.

The USGS team photographed five different areas along the coast: South Padre Island, Matagorda Island, Galveston, and Chenier Plain and Isles Dernieres in Louisiana. Check their website for more information.

Ike's Aftermath from the Sky

We are seeing our first images of Ike’s destruction on the Bolivar Peninsula, and they reveal a sobering reality: Entire communities along the upper Texas coast have been simply wiped out by Ike’s catastrophic storm surge. 

This sequence of NOAA high-altitude photographs starts on the east end of the Bolivar Peninsula and works down the coast westward toward Surfside Beach.

weatherblog.abc13.com

Ike_satellite_gilchrist_2Gilchrist was on the dirty side of Hurricane Ike, where the maximum winds and storm surge caused the worst damage. This small resort and residential community was completely destroyed except for a few homes. About 1000 permanent residents used to live here. Once a straight line, the coastline is now jagged and desolate, permanently altered by Ike's turbulent waters.

weatherblog.abc13.com

Ike_satellite_crystal_beachCrystal Beach is the largest community on Bolivar Peninsula, roughly twice the size of Gilchrist in population. Most of the houses are vacation homes, and it appears most of them have sustained significant damage. Nearly every house south of Ridgeway has been completely destroyed.

weatherblog.abc13.com

Ike_satellite_balinese_room_2Along Galveston’s seawall, the iconic Balinese Room is no longer.  All that remains are a few piers.  In fact, the only thing left between these two jetties are the remains of a souvenir shop.  The debris was pushed westward along the seawall, seen on the left side of the image. You'll notice that the buildings north of the seawall were relatively untouched by Ike's surge.

weatherblog.abc13.com

Ike_satellite_pirates_beach_4Pirates Beach is popular resort community on Galveston's West End, unprotected by the seawall. Sand-filled "geotubes" are suppose to provide protection from hurricanes. But Ike's storm surge was too powerful. Sand was pushed inland several blocks. While destruction is clearly visible, most homes remained intact.  This is because the center of Ike passed to the east, sending the worst of the surge into the Bolivar Peninsula.

weatherblog.abc13.com

Ike_satellite_jamaica_beach_4Jamaica Beach is its own city, and it also finds itself unprotected by Galveston's seawall.  Farther away from the eye of Ike, there was less damage here but you can still see signs of beach erosion. The piles of debris on the right side of the photo, probably washed in from the Galveston State Park campgrounds to the east.

weatherblog.abc13.com

Ike_satellite_surfside_beach_2Surfside Beach in Brazoria County did not receive as much of a surge from Ike relative to other communities, but you can still see homes damaged by the waves and the wind.  Had Hurricane Ike made landfall near Matagorda Bay as once predicted, the damage here would have resembled Gilchrist, as seen above.

weatherblog.abc13.com

I estimate about 125 miles of Texas coastline was swamped by the storm surge. If you don't see your neighborhood, check NOAA's website. You can view these and others in their raw form here. These are large images, so be patient while they load.  Also, they are diamond-shaped, so you will have to scroll down and to the right to see the image after it loads.