Hurricane Ike: Weaker now, stronger later
UPDATE Monday Evening:
There's been a big shift in Hurricane Ike's forecast track. The cone has shifted southward, putting the focus more on south Texas.
This change follows a shift in the computer models. Compare the image to the left with the forecasts from earlier in the day shown below. The Houston-Galveston area is still within the forecast cone and the models could shift northward later this week; landfall is still five days away. The latest update is a change in our favor...not so good news for folks living in Corpus Christi.
Sign up for FREE* text message alerts from ABC13 sent to your cellphone. We will be issuing regular hurricane updates throughout the week. (*We do not charge for this service, but standard text message rates apply. See your cell phone company for details.)
Previous discussion follows:
Hurricane Ike weakened to a category one storm late Monday afternoon, with winds 80 mph. The storm structure has been affected by the interaction with Cuba.
Once Ike moves into the Gulf of Mexico, it is expected to restrengthen. The water is still very warm in the central Gulf and the wind shear is forecast to stay light. Ike could be a category three hurricane (or stronger) by the time it makes landfall on Saturday. There is a general consensus among the computer models for the first 48 hours and then they diverge somewhat. The two models that we have found to be the most reliable show a potential landfall near southeast Texas.
But we must point out the forecast cone is 520 miles wide five days into the future. There is still a possibility the hurricane could turn north toward New Orleans or track more to the west and make landfall in south Texas or northern Mexico.
Historically, hurricanes that have tracked within 50 miles of Ike's location end up going a variety of different directions; there's no pattern for tropical cyclones that track in this area, this time of year. And only one storm in history has hit the island of Cuba from the east like Ike did. An unnamed hurricane in 1886 made landfall on the eastern side of Cuba, moved west into the Gulf and eventually made landfall near Brownsville.
The forecast factor is an area of high pressure covering the eastern U.S. The pressure levels are increasing which is causing the track to shift farther south and west. If the pressure falls, the storm will turn northward. Nothing is static in weather; everything is always changing...and so will the forecast over the next few days.
Sign up for FREE* text message alerts from ABC13 sent to your cellphone. We will be issuing regular hurricane updates throughout the week. (*We do not charge for this service, but standard text message rates apply. See your cell phone company for details.)
Get the latest coordinates, forecast track and satellite image on our website.
Your Comments