Hurricane Ike: What You Can Expect

As of Friday Afternoon, it looks like Hurricane Ike will more than likely make landfall with category 2 winds and a category 4 storm surge. Looking at satellite data, it looks to us like the storm is becoming better organized. There is a possibility the storm could strengthen into a category three right before landfall between 1-3 AM Saturday morning.

Based on the current forecast track, here's what you can expect in some of our local communities:

Galveston Island: Sustained winds 100-120 mph with higher gusts, 15-17' storm surge flooding most of the island (see the map to the right), more than 8" of rain, isolated tornadoes.

Texas City, Baytown, Deer Park, Seabrook, La Porte, Bacliff, Kemah, Anahuac, Smith Point and other communities along Galveston Bay, Trinity Bay, the lower Houston Ship Channel, northern Chambers County and southern Liberty County: Sustained winds 100-120 mph with higher gusts, 15-22' storm surge flooding most neighborhoods near the shore, 5-10" rain, isolated tornadoes.

Gilchrist, Crystal Beach, High Island and other coastal communities along Bolivar Peninsula: Sustained winds 100-120 mph with higher gusts, 17-20' storm surge flooding the entire peninsula, more 5-10" of rain, isolated tornadoes.

Surfside Beach, Freeport, Lake Jackson, Sargent and other coastal communities along the Brazoria and Matagorda County coastline: Sustained winds 100-120 mph with higher gusts, 8-14' storm surge, more than 8" of rain, isolated tornadoes.

Matagorda, Palacios, Port O'Connor, Port Lavaca and other communities along Matagorda Bay: It now looks like Matagorda Bay will be on the weaker side of the storm with sustained winds 75-100 mph, 3-7' storm surge, more than 8" of rain with some flooding likely, isolated tornadoes.

Houston, Bellaire, Sugar Land, Missouri City, Humble, Kingwood, Pasadena, Pearland, Jersey Village, Richmond, Alvin, Bay City, Angleton: Sustained winds 75-110 mph winds, 5-10" rain with flooding in poor drainage areas, isolated tornadoes.

Liberty, Cleveland, Livingston, Huntsville, Conroe, Spring, the Woodlands, Katy, Sealy, Hempstead, Navasota, Wharton, El Campo: Sustained winds 60-90 mph, 5-10" rain with flooding in poor drainage areas, isolated tornadoes.

While we can't list every single community within the storm's path, you can use the new interactive hurricane tracking program on our website to zoom into your neighborhood and see where the storm is tracking.

Hurricane Ike could be the strongest hurricane to hit the north Texas coast since Hurricane Carla in 1961 and could be stronger than Hurricane Alicia in 1983. Based on the predicted path and strength of Hurricane Ike, out cost analysis program shows this area could have $75 billion dollars in total economic losses. Of course, this is just an estimate and it includes such things as the cost of shutting down local businesses, loss of income and property damage.

Hurricane Gustav caused about $7 billion dollars in damage alone, but that storm hit in a less-populated part of southcentral Louisiana. Hurricane Rita caused $10 billion dollars in damage, while Hurricane Katrina cost more than $100 billion.

All that said, the forecast track is still changing and probably will right up until landfall. This storm is coming in while curving northward; it's not tracking in a straight line. A small adjustment of just 15-30 miles will greatly change the outcome.