NOAA predicts even more hurricanes

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has increased their forecast for the 2008 hurricane season.  Meteorologists now expect a total of 14-18 tropical storms will develop this season. That includes the five storms that have developed so far. 7-10 hurricanes will form and 3-6 of these will become major hurricanes with winds over 110 mph.

Warmer-than-normal water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and reduced wind shear will allow more storms to develop than normal. Last month was the third most active July since 1886, another indication that more storms will be forming as the season heats up in August and September.

Already this year, five tropical storms have formed. Two of these strengthened into hurricanes, including Hurricane Dolly which made landfall in south Texas on July 25. Hurricane Bertha became a major, category three hurricane while over the Atlantic Ocean.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.

Comments

[Wm.]

Remember Murphy's Law? -- I wonder at the disastrous possibility if one tropical system formed in the Caribbean & another in the western Atlantic, both on a westward course, in a pincer movement, striking near the same area just days apart. Let's see, could anyone have even imagined what to do or how to prepare for a combined total, even in simply the rainfall category? Consider 20+ inches of rain followed by yet another big storm? What, maybe a combined total of 50 inches within a week in some misfortunate location, with THAT rain backed up by the storm surge/s? People need to THINK AHEAD, not out of paranoia, but in wisdom. IF such a scenario happened, what would you do & how prepared would you be? Would you be prepared enough to be able to help others, too?

[melissa]

I think that this season has been pretty active already and it hasn't been "a slow hurricane season".(Plus the beginning isn't as acitve anyways.) It's going to be the peak of the season soon and the atlantic is becoming more active so therefore the pace of tropical activity is going to kick up. However, NOAA sometimes predicts a rather high outcome for the season and some people don't usually agree with them.Also, some think meteorologists are useless because they can't make up their minds because their always changing them, but weather patterns can be pretty difficult for them to predict, especially how rapidly a hurricane can intesify and where it will make landfall. But I bear with them and would rather have a warning in advance than at the last minute.

[Kristina New]

I have to disagree with those who think that it will be a slow hurricane season, due to the fact that it is only the middle of august and already we have seen 5 storms and we are now working on our 6th. so technically the current rate of formation is about 2 storms per month, and we have 3 and a half months to go so if it follows the pattern we should expect 6-7 more storms to form. and that my friends is just a minimum.

RESPONSE from Tim Heller: I haven't heard anyone say this is going to be a "slow hurricane season."

[Justen Simpton]

I guess I'll just say it. If I'm wrong, it won't be the first or the last time. I will also get lucky again.
I don't think there will be as many as expected. No more then six landfalls for CONUS.

[Dan Bradshaw]

I predict because of the warmer than normal water and high level of diminished atmosphere and the rotation this month of the moon, we will have a slow ending to the hurricane season and will be be low the 1st prediction from NOAA. I have just as much chance to predict nature than anyone else. Based on previous initial predictions of NOAA, I am certain to have better odds!