Lots of action in the Atlantic

Right on schedule, the tropics are very active with two named storms and two moderately strong tropical waves. Mid-August through the end of September is typically the busiest time of the hurricane season.

The tropical wave off the west coast of Africa could develop into a storm as it moves westward the next few days. The tropical wave in the Bay of Campeche in the southern part of the Gulf will run into strong wind shear as it drifts north which should limit development.

And then there's Hanna and Gustav. Tropical Storm Hanna formed earlier in the day and will be tracking to the northwest between Bermuda and the Bahamas. Gustav is our more immediate concern.

Gustav was still a tropical storm as of late Thursday afternoon. The storm will probably weaken as it moves over Jamaica tonight. Then Friday and Saturday, the storm could strengthen again as it moves through an area where wind shear is less than 10 knots and water temps are over 85-degrees.

While the forecast models are in general agreement on the track of Gustav into the central Gulf of Mexico, they also show the storm slowing down as it approaches the coast. This is troublesome. Gustav will slow down if it runs into higher pressure to the north, which could also push the storm more toward the west, more toward Galveston.

Whatever category Gustav is when it reaches the western tip of Cuba, I expect it to increase another category higher as it moves over the deep, warm water in the central Gulf of Mexico. Watch this. If Gustav is a category two storm when it passes through the Yucatan Channel Saturday evening, I think it's likely to strengthen into a category three on Sunday. As it continues moving northward, closer to the coast and away from the warmest water in the Gulf, Gustav could weaken. That's what happened with Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

Unless it stalls or slows down. That could allow it to become even stronger.

The models may start to show a different pattern beginning later tonight and tomorrow. NOAA is flying a plane into the upper atmosphere around the edge of the storm to get a better sampling of the environment Gustav is moving through. They also dropped more buoys into the Gulf of Mexico today to get a better measure of the water temperatures. Eventually the buoys will also measure the strength of the storm once it reaches the Gulf this weekend.

Get the latest coordinates, forecast track and satellite image on our website.

You can also sign up for text message alerts sent to your cellphone. We'll be issuing regular Gustav updates over the next several days and through the holiday weekend. (Standard text message rates apply. See your cell phone company for details.)