Hurricane Gustav could have a long landfall

Our exclusive wind forecast from the FutureTrack computer model shows Hurricane Gustav making landfall in south central Louisiana around Noon on Monday. But that only marks the time when the center of the storm crosses the coast. Hurricane force winds will start blowing in southeast Louisiana before sunrise. And because the storm is coming in at an angle, folks there will be feeling the effects of Gustav all day Monday.

New Orleans will be on the dirty side of the circulation where the strongest winds will be blowing. Our FutureTrack indicates the winds will be gusting from the southeast in New Orleans for over 12 hours. That could push a lot of water from the Gulf into Lake Pontchartrain which could be a real test for the rebuilt levees.

A twelve foot storm surge will also swamp extreme southeast Louisiana cities like Grand Isle, Houma and Morgan City.  That area will also experience the strongest winds found in the eye-wall. Significant damage is likely.

While all that is happening to our east, the weather in the Houston-Galveston area will be the typical Labor Day weather: hot and humid with a few isolated late afternoon showers. The winds will be a little stronger than usual, but not strong enough to cause damage.

For folks headed to the beach, the waves in the Gulf of Mexico will increase 6-9 feet on Labor Day. Expect a high of 91° in Galveston on Monday.

We'll feel the effects of Gustav starting Tuesday when our rain chance goes up. The remnants of the storm will get stuck over east Texas giving us a high chance of rain for several days. The heaviest amounts will be north and east of Houston. But we could still get a few soakers in the city this week.

Get the latest coordinates, forecast track and satellite image on our website.

Sign up for text message alerts from ABC13 sent to your cellphone. We'll be issuing regular Gustav updates throughout the holiday weekend. (We do not charge for this service, but standard text message rates apply. See your cell phone company for details.)

Hurricane Gustav: Heavy rain could be our biggest problem

Saturday afternoon update: Gustav will be making landfall earlier than previously forecast. It appears the high pressure ridge north of the hurricane will not build until after the storm has made landfall. The current forecast calls for landfall Monday afternoon in south central Louisiana.

Thereafter, the storm will stall and drift westward spreading heavy rain across Louisiana and Texas.

Get the latest coordinates, forecast track and satellite image on our website.

Sign up for text message alerts from ABC13 sent to your cellphone. We'll be issuing regular Gustav updates throughout the holiday weekend. (We do not charge for this service, but standard text message rates apply. See your cell phone company for details.)

Previous discussion follows:

While southeast Texas is still in the forecast cone, confidence is gaining that Hurricane Gustav will make landfall east of us in central Louisiana. The track from the National Hurricane Center has been fairly consistent since Thursday morning. The computer model guidance is also clustered around central Louisiana and has been for over 24 hours.

One of the more reliable models this season (HWRF) is showing Gustav stalling offshore and then drifting westward. This has shown up a couple of times in that particular model data over the last two days. Even those models that predict a landfall still show Gustav slowing down as it nears the coast.

I expect the storm to slow down or even stall over Louisiana and Texas after landfall on Tuesday and that could be the biggest problem for us. We could have heavy rain squalls for 48 hours (or more). Based on the current path of Gustav, the heavier totals would be in our northeast counties. Communities like Winnie, Liberty, Livingston, Conroe and Huntsville could be inundated. The Houston area could also have very heavy rain. Less rain will probably fall in our southern counties since the remnant moisture would be drifting along north of us.

All that said, we still need to prepare for a sudden shift in the forecast path. There is still some uncertainty on where the storm will go. We're about 72 hours from landfall after all. Once your hurricane preps are in place, enjoy the weekend. But keep track of Gustav.

Hurricane Gustav headed into the Gulf this weekend

Yesterday I was talking with a viewer about Hurricane Gustav. He said to me, "I thought that storm was going into Florida."

"That forecast changed three days ago!" I said.

And three days from now we might be talking about another change in the forecast. It's impossible to say where Hurricane Gustav is going to go.

How many times have you read here and heard me say on-air, "The forecast is highly uncertain?" Usually we have a pretty good idea of where the storm will go. But with this storm, we're unsure about the track of the storm as well as the intensity and the timing.

As of late Friday, we have a 20% chance of tropical storm force winds over 39 mph in the Houston-Galveston area. The highest probability is still over Louisiana, but that could shift east or west depending on the exact track of the storm.  The probability values will increase in some areas as the storm gets closer and as we become more certain on where the Gustav will make landfall.

We also have a 5% chance of hurricane force winds in the Houston-Galveston area. There's a 10% chance of winds over 74 mph in the New Orleans area. These numbers too will go up as the storm develops over the weekend. And the winds could very well be much stronger than that.

Get the latest coordinates, forecast track and satellite image on our website.

You can also sign up for text message alerts sent to your cellphone. We'll be issuing regular Gustav updates throughout the holiday weekend. (Standard text message rates apply. See your cell phone company for details.)

Lots of action in the Atlantic

Right on schedule, the tropics are very active with two named storms and two moderately strong tropical waves. Mid-August through the end of September is typically the busiest time of the hurricane season.

The tropical wave off the west coast of Africa could develop into a storm as it moves westward the next few days. The tropical wave in the Bay of Campeche in the southern part of the Gulf will run into strong wind shear as it drifts north which should limit development.

And then there's Hanna and Gustav. Tropical Storm Hanna formed earlier in the day and will be tracking to the northwest between Bermuda and the Bahamas. Gustav is our more immediate concern.

Gustav was still a tropical storm as of late Thursday afternoon. The storm will probably weaken as it moves over Jamaica tonight. Then Friday and Saturday, the storm could strengthen again as it moves through an area where wind shear is less than 10 knots and water temps are over 85-degrees.

While the forecast models are in general agreement on the track of Gustav into the central Gulf of Mexico, they also show the storm slowing down as it approaches the coast. This is troublesome. Gustav will slow down if it runs into higher pressure to the north, which could also push the storm more toward the west, more toward Galveston.

Whatever category Gustav is when it reaches the western tip of Cuba, I expect it to increase another category higher as it moves over the deep, warm water in the central Gulf of Mexico. Watch this. If Gustav is a category two storm when it passes through the Yucatan Channel Saturday evening, I think it's likely to strengthen into a category three on Sunday. As it continues moving northward, closer to the coast and away from the warmest water in the Gulf, Gustav could weaken. That's what happened with Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

Unless it stalls or slows down. That could allow it to become even stronger.

The models may start to show a different pattern beginning later tonight and tomorrow. NOAA is flying a plane into the upper atmosphere around the edge of the storm to get a better sampling of the environment Gustav is moving through. They also dropped more buoys into the Gulf of Mexico today to get a better measure of the water temperatures. Eventually the buoys will also measure the strength of the storm once it reaches the Gulf this weekend.

Get the latest coordinates, forecast track and satellite image on our website.

You can also sign up for text message alerts sent to your cellphone. We'll be issuing regular Gustav updates over the next several days and through the holiday weekend. (Standard text message rates apply. See your cell phone company for details.)

Gustav moving very slowly

Tropical Storm Gustav has been battering Haiti for over 24 hours with heavy rain and strong winds. The interaction with the mountainous terrain has also weakened the storm. As of late Wednesday afternoon, the winds were down to 50 mph and only extended outward up to 50 miles.

Although there is still some uncertainty in the forecast, the computer models are in a little more agreement today. Two of more reliable models (HWRF and GFDL) shown in red here, are closer together today and both are forecasting a major category three storm. They do differ on the speed of the storm, however.

Once Gustav moves away from Haiti there will be ample opportunity to strengthen. The water temperatures are 85-89 degrees and wind shear is less than 10 knots across the northern Caribbean Sea. Gustav is still forecast to become a major hurricane before entering the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. And it could strengthen even more as it moves over the deep, warm water in the Gulf of Mexico.

Historically, most storms that have tracked through this part of the Caribbean Sea during this time of year end up making landfall along the Texas or Florida coasts. The map to the left shows the paths of all the hurricanes that have tracked within 50 miles of Gustav's position. The line you see going into Galveston is the Great 1900 Hurricane.

If Gustav follows the computer guidance and makes landfall along the upper Gulf Coast in Louisiana, Mississippi or Alabama it would be in difference to the past. Proving once again, that tropical cyclones don't follow any rules.

Hurricane Gustav: Anybody got a dart board?

Updated Wednesday Morning: A quick check of the models early Wednesday morning suggests Gustav will ride the south and west side of an upper air high pressure system and track toward the central Gulf coast, probably making landfall well east of Galveston.

We're certainly not in the clear yet. But the model guidance is in a little more agreement this morning and shows a track more toward New Orleans, Mobile or even Pensacola, as noted in last night's discussion below.

Watch for a more detailed update later today.

Get the latest coordinates, forecast track and satellite image on our website.

You can also sign up for text message alerts sent to your cellphone. We'll be issuing regular Gustav updates over the next several days and through the holiday weekend. (Standard text message rates apply. See your cell phone company for details.)

Updated Tuesday Evening:  Some of the late model runs are coming in and suggest Gustov could be a fast moving storm once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.

One of the more trusted models (GFDL) puts the storm 100 miles southeast of San Luis Pass by 7 PM Sunday evening. Following this track, landfall could come as early as Monday morning along the Texas/Louisiana coast. One of the other models we give a lot of weight (HWRF) has also shifted the track northward into the central Gulf by Sunday.

If the models are showing the typical left bias, however, this could be a storm for Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama...or even Florida.

Previous Discussion Follows:

As I mentioned in this morning's post, the forecast models are showing a wide discrepancy regarding the track, strength and speed of Hurricane Gustav.

The GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) model is the National Hurricane Center's model-of-choice. That model is predicting a category 4 hurricane south of Louisiana by Sunday afternoon. The HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast) model did a good job predicting the track of Dolly and Edouard. That model suggests Gustav will be a category 2 hurricane north of the Yucatan by Sunday afternoon. Still another, the NOGAPS (Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System) has not performed very well this season, although it has been a good reference in the past. NOGAPS forecasts a track across Cuba and toward the Florida panhandle by Sunday afternoon.

By my math, there's about 365 miles between the HWRF and NOGAPS position and 275 miles between the HWRF and GFDL tracks.

The forecast track is likely to change. Where's the bullseye? Nobody knows. But we are fairly certain the dartboard is setting over the Gulf.

Hurricane Gustav and Labor Day Weekend

As of Tuesday morning, there is still a lot of discrepancies among the hurricane forecast models regarding the intensity, track and speed of Hurricane Gustav over the next five days.

One of the more trusted models shows a category 4 hurricane in the central Gulf by early Sunday morning. Another shows a category 4 hurricane just north of Cuba. That's a difference of about 300 miles. Still another model shows a category 2 hurricane closer to the Yucatan, although that model has not been performing as well this season.

We have a long, holiday weekend coming up during which most people will be outdoors, and not inside watching the news. There is a lot of uncertainty about Gustav.  We should be prepared to go into hurricane mode by Sunday if the first scenario plays out.

Watch for another update this afternoon when another set of model data is released.

Guten Tag Gustav

The tropical depression in the Caribbean is a little stronger than the National Hurricane Center thought. Hurricane Hunters flew into the storm Monday afternoon and found winds were already blowing 60 mph.  As a result Hurricane Warnings were quickly issued for the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

Gustav, like his sister Tropical Storm Fay, could be full of surprises. There's a huge discrepancy among the computer forecast models. Some are taking the storm northward toward Florida but many of the later runs are showing a track more toward the Yucatan Peninsula and perhaps into the Gulf of Mexico. The image to the left shows the forecast from several models as well as the official forecast in white along with the cone of uncertainty.

NHC emphasized in their discussion, "It should be noted that the confidence in this track forecast is not high, particularly at days 4 and 5."

It's way too early to know if this storm is headed toward Texas. The steering currents aloft are going through some big changes this week which will affect where this storm goes. If a trough of low pressure crossing the U.S. pulls the storm north, then we probably won't have to worry about Gustav. But the trough is moving quickly and some models are predicting it will be replaced by higher pressure which will push the storm west/northwest.

For the latest position and track of Tropical Storm Gustav, visit the hurricane section of our website.

Houston is stuck between two storms

There are two counter-clockwise spinning storms on the weather map: Tropical Storm Fay is drifting across Florida, Alabama and Mississippi and an upper level low pressure is stalled over northern Mexico and south Texas.

The storm in Texas will produce more heavy showers across the state this weekend as it pulls moisture northward out of the Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, the broad circulation around Tropical Storm Fay will turn our winds in from the east-northeast this weekend which will dry the atmosphere a little bit.

So will it rain here or not?  That depends on which storm is stronger and that will vary throughout the weekend. We expect some rain to develop, but probably not as many showers as we had earlier in the week. Still, the showers are likely to be heavy if they develop in your neighborhood.

Don't forget, if you're out and about you can check our radar on your web-enabled cellphone. Just type in www.abc13NOW.com

Tracking Fickle Fay

Tropical Storm Fay continues confound meteorologists. From the beginning there was not a lot of agreement among the forecast models on where this storm would go. By Monday, it became clear that Fay would probably make landfall in south Florida and track north.  On Tuesday, the storm did the opposite of what most tropical cyclones do after landfall: Fay strengthened while over land. We also realized building high pressure north of the system would cause it to make a hard left turn and track back over the Deep South bringing heavy rain to Georgia, Mississippi and Alabama.

As of Wednesday afternoon, Tropical Storm Fay is still over Florida, just north of Cape Canaveral.  The storm has stalled and is dumping torrential rain in central Florida. As of 1 PM, nearly 22" of rain has fallen northwest of Melbourne. A snapshot of live Doppler radar from Florida shows the area of heavy rain near the radar site in Melbourne.

The center of Tropical Storm Fay will probably move offshore later tonight, but it won't get far enough away from land to allow for significant strengthening. So, at this point it looks unlikely that Fay will become a hurricane before turning to the west and tracking across northern Florida.

It is also unlikely that this storm will have an effect on our weather. The low pressure that has been sitting over Texas the last five days will help push the moisture from Fay northward, away from us. By the weekend, our storm will shift a little to the east which should allow some sunshine to return...along with warmer temps, of course.