Hurricane Gustav headed into the Gulf this weekend

Yesterday I was talking with a viewer about Hurricane Gustav. He said to me, "I thought that storm was going into Florida."

"That forecast changed three days ago!" I said.

And three days from now we might be talking about another change in the forecast. It's impossible to say where Hurricane Gustav is going to go.

How many times have you read here and heard me say on-air, "The forecast is highly uncertain?" Usually we have a pretty good idea of where the storm will go. But with this storm, we're unsure about the track of the storm as well as the intensity and the timing.

As of late Friday, we have a 20% chance of tropical storm force winds over 39 mph in the Houston-Galveston area. The highest probability is still over Louisiana, but that could shift east or west depending on the exact track of the storm.  The probability values will increase in some areas as the storm gets closer and as we become more certain on where the Gustav will make landfall.

We also have a 5% chance of hurricane force winds in the Houston-Galveston area. There's a 10% chance of winds over 74 mph in the New Orleans area. These numbers too will go up as the storm develops over the weekend. And the winds could very well be much stronger than that.

Get the latest coordinates, forecast track and satellite image on our website.

You can also sign up for text message alerts sent to your cellphone. We'll be issuing regular Gustav updates throughout the holiday weekend. (Standard text message rates apply. See your cell phone company for details.)