Gustav moving very slowly

Tropical Storm Gustav has been battering Haiti for over 24 hours with heavy rain and strong winds. The interaction with the mountainous terrain has also weakened the storm. As of late Wednesday afternoon, the winds were down to 50 mph and only extended outward up to 50 miles.

Although there is still some uncertainty in the forecast, the computer models are in a little more agreement today. Two of more reliable models (HWRF and GFDL) shown in red here, are closer together today and both are forecasting a major category three storm. They do differ on the speed of the storm, however.

Once Gustav moves away from Haiti there will be ample opportunity to strengthen. The water temperatures are 85-89 degrees and wind shear is less than 10 knots across the northern Caribbean Sea. Gustav is still forecast to become a major hurricane before entering the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. And it could strengthen even more as it moves over the deep, warm water in the Gulf of Mexico.

Historically, most storms that have tracked through this part of the Caribbean Sea during this time of year end up making landfall along the Texas or Florida coasts. The map to the left shows the paths of all the hurricanes that have tracked within 50 miles of Gustav's position. The line you see going into Galveston is the Great 1900 Hurricane.

If Gustav follows the computer guidance and makes landfall along the upper Gulf Coast in Louisiana, Mississippi or Alabama it would be in difference to the past. Proving once again, that tropical cyclones don't follow any rules.