Bertha Breaks Another Record, Signals Active Season

Bertha claimed another record today, becoming the longest-lived July tropical storm in history.  The previous record of 12.25 days at tropical storm strength or greater was held by Storm #2 in 1916.  Bertha also holds the record for the strongest July storm in the Atlantic Ocean, and no July storm has formed farther east in the Atlantic Ocean than Bertha did.  It is important to note that some of these records may not have been set if not for the advent of satellites that allow us to observe these storms far out in the Atlantic.

When a strong storm like Bertha forms early in the hurricane season (before August), people often ask us if this means we are in for an active season.  It turns out that early season development has no bearing on the rest of the hurricane season unless the storm forms in an area I have outlined in the graphic at right.  When a storm like Bertha forms in this part of the "main development region" during June or July, it usually signals that there will be an average to above-average number of storms.  Why?  Because this often indicates the wind shear is light and the water is warm in the area where waves from Africa track through the tropics.

Since the current upswing in hurricane activity that began in 1995, early season development has occurred here 5 times: 1995, 1996, 1998, 2003, and 2005.  These seasons averaged 18 storms.   In the other 8 seasons, an average of 12.75 storms formed.  No matter how many storms form this season, keep in mind that it only takes one to ruin our summer.

Chief Meteorlogist Tim Heller returns Wednesday!

Comments

[lisa]

when you talk about past hurricanes why don't you ever talk about hurricane celia? it has been 38 years to the day that she came on shore around corpus christi. i will never forget that day and the many days after that for as long as i live. one can never get the sounds out of their heads. celia was a cat 3 with winds clocked at least at 170 mph.

RESPONSE from Tim Heller: Celia made landfall near Corpus Christi on August 3, 1970 with 125 mph winds, almost a category four hurricane.

Many times when we talk about "local" hurricanes, we refer to those storms that have made landfall between Beaumont and Port O'Connor which would have had a direct and/or indirect effect on the Houston-Galveston area. Although Celia was a notable hurricane, it effected South Texas.

Still, since many people currently living in the Houston area once lived around Corpus Christi and clearly remember that storm, perhaps we need to include Celia more when we research tropical cyclones.

Thanks for the suggestion.