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« April 2008 | Main | June 2008 »

Tropical Storm Arthur forms in the Caribbean

The first storm of the 2008 hurricane season (which officially begins Sunday) formed just as it crossed the coast of Belize early Saturday afternoon. Tropical Storm Arthur should weaken as it crosses the Yucatan peninsula. However, the circulation could reorganize and strengthen once it gets over the warm water in the Bay of Campeche.

Ktrkcarir_20080531_2The satellite shows a large area of cloud cover extending eastward across the Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center reports tropical storm force winds over 39 mph are possible up to 260 miles northeast of the center circulation.

Strong high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep Arthur moving westward. A second landfall is possible near Veracruz. None of the computer models suggest this storm will go north.

That same high pressure, by the way, is keeping us high and dry. We're forecasting highs in the mid 90s, near record levels, the next couple of days.

Interview with Bill Read, Director of Hurricane Center

Read_2shot2Recently I had a chance to talk one-on-one with Bill Read, the new Director of the National Hurricane Center and former Meteorologist-in-Charge of the Houston-Galveston National Weather Service office.

Here are some excerpts from that interview:

Tim Heller: I was talking with Hurricane Specialist Jack Bevens, who works at NHC, and he said every Director has a specialty. Max Mayfield, for example, spent a lot of time on TV doing interviews during hurricanes. What kind of Director will you be?

Bill Read: I really understand very clearly what we face in the local (National Weather Service) offices with the forecasts that are coming out and the uncertainties and all. My iteration with the forecasters will be on the impact aspect. OK, if we put the watch out here instead of here will it be better? Can we push ourselves and put it out a little earlier because we got issues with evacuation? I understand that.

Tim Heller: You said at the National Hurricane Conference in early April that during Hurricane Rita you realized we have a lot of work to do. What did you mean by that?

Bill Read: The vast majority of us don't prepare for these nasty things happening in life. It's just the way we are made up as humans I guess. Maybe 10% of the population actually has a plan for what they'll do in a hurricane. That leaves 90% that are going to be making their plan and reacting to the storm as it happens. You might not be planning to evacuate, but suddenly you see your neighbors packing up, and well...

Tim Heller: ...and we end up with the Hurricane Rita traffic mess.

Bill Read:  Exactly. The other thing we have to work on are the building codes. Even states with codes, there's a lot of variability and a lot of non-enforcement of codes...most of which fall substantially short of where we need to be if we're going to keep building in the coastal zone. And if we're not prepared and we're not building places to stay there...you can see where that's going. Inevitably we're going to get a storm that forms in the Gulf, becomes an Audrey, makes landfall, people can't get out of the way and we have a catastrophe.

Tim Heller: Yet we continue to build along the coast. Look at all the new construction on Galveston Island in the last couple of decades. Didn't we learn anything from Hurricane Alicia?

Read_interview_2Bill Read: 1900 should have been the teacher of that lesson. A storm of that magnitude is a Katrina like storm and the first row of houses is gone when one of those comes in. What about the high-rises? What's going to happen to them. The high winds in Wilma, even code built condos in Florida, higher up above the ground the winds exceeded code and bam! You lost windows, there was water penetration and serious damage. We just need to be aware that's going to happen.

Tim Heller: You previously said that this year the NOAA hurricane forecast will be "released with much less publicity." Yet, that statement has generated a lot of publicity.

Bill Read:  We've come to the conclusion from feedback we're getting is that there's too much emphasis placed on the season forecast, instead of preparing for the storm that's com gin toward you. There's no correlation between the number of storms that happen and you're community getting hit by a hurricane. Alicia is our example with only four storms that year. And Andrew in south Florida, with only six storms that year. There's plenty more to go with that, to get that point home.

Tim Heller: We're in an active hurricane period, people don't plans and we have problems with building codes. What makes a guy want this job?

Bill Read: I want to be where I can make a difference on this stuff. And I think a lot of things we have done right in Houston, in the way we all coordinate and work well together. Maybe I can bring some of that to a larger plain.

Read told me he plans to work at NHC for about five years and then retire back in Houston.

Flare-up in the Caribbean

Ktrkcarir_20080530Tropical Storm Alma, which developed in the eastern Pacific on Thursday, is weakening as it moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America.

The broad circulation around this storm extends northeast into the Caribbean Sea. The satellite image is showing heavy showers developing east of the Yucatan Peninsula. Right now, we expect this circulation to stay disorganized as it drifts westward over the weekend. Still, we'll be watching this area for possible development. Historically, early tropical systems tend to form in the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Caribbean, not the deep tropics.

Hurricane Alicia: Our Story

I asked several long-time ABC13 employees to share their stories about Hurricane Alicia, the category three hurricane which made landfall near San Luis Pass 25 years ago:

Alicia_ed_brandon_2 Ed Brandon

My most vivid memory of Hurricane Alicia was the brief period of calm that occurred at the Channel 13 studios as the eye of the storm apparently passed overhead.  We had been watching the palm trees. The wind blew them violently into an almost horizontal position.  During the “calm” the trees returned to their vertical orientation and there appeared to be no wind at all.  Then, a few minutes later, the trees again began tilting dangerously as the wind picked up as strong as before, but from a different direction.  During the calm, Don Nelson stepped outside into the courtyard and broadcast live what was happening.

Almost as vivid is the memory of driving around our near-southwest side area after the storm had passed.  When the hurricane winds finally subsided I left the station to drive to my nearby apartment.  My car was the only one on Richmond Avenue as I drove through the Greenway Plaza area toward the HISD administration building.  It appeared that I was the first to travel that stretch of road post-Alicia and the experience of swerving around large tree branches and downed power lines is still with me.

I discovered that there was no power at my apartment and decided that if I was to rest, it would have to be somewhere away from home.  I went to the Stouffer’s hotel (now the Renaissance) across the street from the Summit (now Lakewood Church) and stopped to get a room since it was apparent they had not lost power.  When I got there, all of the guests were in the lobby and I was told by the desk clerk that there would be no access to the upper floors, where the rooms were, until “after the storm.”  I told the guy that the worst was over and it was safe to send folks back to their rooms.  After all, I had just watched the storm on radar as it moved away from our neighborhood.  No amount of talking would convince the people at Stouffer’s that it was safe for me to go up to a room and get some sleep!  Thank God for the two-story LaQuinta Inn on Southwest Freeway.  I got a good six or seven hours of sleep and then lived there for about the next ten days.

Alicia_doug_brown_2 Doug Brown

The biggest impression I had of Alicia was how quickly she formed and became a Category 3 Hurricane.  As you know, we often track systems from infancy for days on end.  We actually have to fill time on the air with endless facts and forecasts that have to be updated every few hours. 

Not the case with Alicia.  She formed in the Central Gulf and quickly grew.  Over the course of about three days we broadcasters talked about a small disturbance that became a major threat.  That experience taught me that from day one, a small disturbance could become significant in a matter of hours. So be prepared and respect Mother Nature’s ability to get your attention quickly.

Alicia_tom_koch Tom Koch

As a relative newcomer to Texas at the time of Alicia, I really didn’t know what to expect from such a big storm and apprehension seemed appropriate.

I was assigned to cover the Clear Lake area and the night before the storm, we checked into the Nassau Bay Hilton where I spent the evening doing live reports for our station and phone reports for other stations around the country. When the storm moved closer, the windows began to shake and the power eventually went out and most people huddled in the lobby for the night, reporters included.

At daybreak we ventured out to find the overwhelming destruction right outside the front door: boats tossed across the road, water submerging the bridges and debris everywhere. We spent the morning shooting video and interviews and because we could not feed back a live report, we drove back to Houston through two feet of water on many parts of the freeway and pounding rain all the way. It was just the beginning of a long week for everyone. And it was the day I wished I’d never met a hurricane.

Alicia_melanie_lawson_4 Melanie Lawson

I was a brand-new reporter at Channel 13 when Alicia hit....I'd only been here for a few months.  When the News Director announced that we were in the direct path of a hurricane and all newsroom personnel was expected to work until it was over, I didn't even know what to expect.  I'd grown up in Houston, but the only real hurricane I could remember was Carla, when I was a very little girl.  And my only memory from that time was my father finding snakes in our backyard, after the storm moved through.

I was sent out with a live truck and told to go to different spots around town, set up and report back what we were seeing.  So in the driving rain and howling wind, we headed for the Texas Medical Center, where the water was rising by the minute and that normally busy section of town was virtually deserted.  As we put up the mast on our live truck, I could see the entire van rocking back and forth in the wind.  It was the first time that I felt really scared, especially when I saw all the debris whipping around in the blinding rain.
But my job was to get on the air and report back live, and somehow we did that.

The next few hours and days are a blur, as we all worked long past exhaustion -- watching the damage from Alicia with amazement....seeing the downtown skyscrapers raining down glass as their windows were blown out by the high winds, watching the bayous rise out of their banks, going to neighborhoods made virtually impassable because of all the downed tree limbs and power lines. 

But the crowning blow was when I finally got home, and discovered I was like hundreds of thousands of other Houstonians -- I had no power, and a huge tree was blocking my street.  It would be almost a week later before the power was finally turned back on, and the roads cleared in my neighborhood.  And the recovery was even longer for many other parts of town.

Alicia_deborah_wrigley_2 Deborah Wrigley

I remember thinking this storm was going to be an adventure- my first to cover as a reporter. My wonderful mother gave me 'the look', and said, "Deborah, this is not something to look forward to. Hurricanes are not fun."

Mom, as always, was right.

We were sent to Galveston. The other crews from the station were housed at the Galvez.  I and my photographer and engineer were told to stay at the Galveston post office.

We did the usual storm spectators stories during the day. Wind and surf were what would be expected.  But by 10 PM, the wind was too high to get a liveshot out.

Alicia_don_kobos_2 Don Kobos

I had only lived in Houston a year when Alicia hit and had not yet covered a hurricane in my reporting career….let alone one with the anger of Alicia.      There are several things I will never forget about that amazing experience.   

First of all was the drive to work the morning Alicia came ashore.   I drove down Westheimer around 5 AM and remember how everything was surprisingly dark.  There was no power, no lights, but there were plenty of live electrical and telephone wires dancing across Westheimer with sparks jumping from them everywhere.    As I listened to one of the radio newscasts as a cruised alone down the empty streets, an announcer came on the air and said there were reports a tornado had touched down at Gessner and Westheimer.   I heard that report as I was driving through the Gessner intersection on Westheimer.   I had a heavy foot that morning and made it to work with no difficulties.   

I was assigned to cover downtown Houston.  I thought that I was going to miss out on the biggest story of my career because I was not being sent to Galveston and the shore line where the wrath of Alicia would strike first.   That was not the case at all.   
I spent the next week doing stories from downtown Houston where dozens of glass skyscrapers faced millions of dollars of hurricane damage. 

That first morning photographer Jack Combs and I saw our lives flash before our very eyes.  As we drove down Louisiana into downtown in the middle of the high winds and torrential rains,  we could see debris…mostly glass from the giant skyscrapers….. filling the streets ahead of us.   Thinking visually as a most good reporters do, I encouraged Jack to step outside the car and take a few pictures.   As he stood a few feet away from the door, two giant pieces of thick window glass crashed though  the hood of our vehicle in the engine area.  A few inches to the left or right and either of us would have been struck and killed by the falling sheets and chunks of glass that were blown out of their windows and fell 20 to 30 stories to the ground.

Jack jumped into the car and we sped far enough away from the many glass skyscrapers that lined so many streets in downtown Houston.    After we caught our breath we reflected on how lucky we were and how you can never take anything for granted when covering a hurricane.

To share Your Hurricane Alicia Story, click here.

Tim Heller

Hurricane Alicia: Your Story

Hurricane_alicia

How old were you when Hurricane Alicia hit? Did your family stay or evacuate? Do you remember what it was like when the storm moved through Galveston and Houston? Was there any damage in your neighborhood? How did that storm affect the way you respond to hurricanes today?

What's your story?

Click the "comments" button below and share your story.

NOAA: Busy hurricane season ahead

At the National Hurricane Conference last April, Bill Read, the new director of NHC told me the hurricane forecast would be "released with a lot less publicity this year." Instead of specific numbers, Read said, the forecast would state above normal or below normal activity and emphasize preparedness.

Someone must have over-ruled that decision.

Noaa_thumbNOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration which oversees the NHC issued an outlook for the upcoming season. Their forecast:

  • 12-16 Tropical Storms
  • 6-9 Hurricanes (Category 1-2)
  • 2-5 Major Hurricanes (Category 3-4-5)

Compare this year's forecast with last year's forecast.

On average 11 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes develop during the hurricane season. NOAA says there's a 90% chance we'll have a near normal or above normal season.

These numbers are also in line with the prediction made by Gray and Klotzbach.

The weather factors that would enhance hurricane development this year include La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean which produce weaker winds over the Atlantic and the warmer than normal water temperatures in the Atlantic, a cyclical condition that started back in 1995.

Remember, these are just numbers. In 1983 only four storms developed. But one of them was Hurricane Alicia, our last major hurricane.

Hurricane Alicia: Her Story Today

Alicia_sunday_1035Twenty five years ago the eye of Hurricane Alicia made landfall along the upper Texas coast. Although we've been threatened by many storms since then, Alicia is still the last major hurricane to hit this area with winds over 110 mph.

How much do you remember about Hurricane Alicia? Take our online quiz.

Have we learned anything over the past 25 years? The traffic jam we witnessed during Hurricane Rita in 2005 would suggest many of us still need to develop a hurricane plan.

Alicia caused about $2 billion in damage in 1983. New development along the coast and throughout southeast Texas would put the damage costs substantially higher if a similar storm hit the same location today.

It only takes one storm. Forget the hurricane forecasts. Alicia developed during a year in which only four storms formed all season!

This Sunday night, May 25, the Eyewitness News weather team takes a look back at Hurricane Alicia in a special report at 10:35 PM.

Space Station visible over Houston this week

Weather permitting, you'll have several chances to see the International Space Station when it passes over Houston this week.

Here's when and where you need to look:

  • Tuesday, May 20 at 9:15 PM: moving SSW to ENE
  • Wednesday, May 21 at 9:38 PM: moving WSW to NNE
  • Friday, May 23 at 8:47 PM: moving WSW to NNE

All three times, the flight over Houston will take about five minutes so you'll have plenty of time to see it.

New study: Global warming not causing more hurricanes

A new study from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicates there is no connection between hurricanes and global warming.

Meteorologists have said for years that we are in the midst of an active hurricane period that started in the 1990s. It's part of a natural cycle.  But during the record hurricane season of 2005, many people studying climate change suggested global warming was to blame.

Hurricaneritainland NOAA, which oversees the National Weather Service, ran computer simulations that predict an 18-percent decrease in the number of hurricanes and a 27% decrease in tropical storms in the Atlantic basin by the end of the century...even if global temps continue to rise.

Thomas Knutson, one of the study's authors said, "It does not support the notion that increasing greenhouse gases are causing a large increase in Atlantic hurricane or tropical storm frequency."

Increased wind shear will make it more difficult for tropical systems to develop, they predict. And tropical storms that do develop will have trouble gaining strength if upper level winds are stronger.

Another researcher working on the project Isaac Held added, "Those models could be wrong."

Hurricane exhibit coming to Disney's EPCOT

Visitors to Walt Disney World's EPCOT will be in the eye of the storm later this summer when a new hurricane exhibit opens in the Innoventions pavilion.

Epcot "Storm Struck: The Tale of Two Homes" was announced at the Florida Governor's Hurricane Conference last week.  Working with the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes, Disney Imagineers will use 3-D video technology and surround sound to simulate a category 4 hurricane. Visitors will see how reinforcing the roof, walls and floor of a house can save it from the destructive power of a hurricane.

The new exhibit is expected to open in August 2008.

In the interest of full disclosure, Disney is the parent company of ABC which owns KTRK.