Weather modification in China

The forecast should be 100% accurate for the upcoming summer Olympics in China. That country spends $60 to $90 million dollars annually to change the weather.  And they claim to be successful.

According to a recent article in Technology Review, between 1999 and 2008 Chinese officials declared a 30,000 square mile area a "hail-free zone" and produced enough rain to fill China's second largest river four times over.

How do they do it? Using two airplanes and a series of twenty rocket launch sites engineers seed developing clouds with silver iodide and dry ice to produce rain. The Weather Modification Office hopes to flush the rain out of the clouds before they reach Beijing and the 91,000 seat open-air stadium which will host many of the Olympic events.

They have a big challenge ahead of them. August is the rainy season in China.

Photo from Technology Review.

We need rain

No one wants it to rain on the weekend. But we do need it.

Just a little more than two inches of rain has fallen at Bush Intercontinental Airport so far this month. That's about three quarters of inch below normal. For the year, we're wetter than normal...but not by much.

The last soaking shower we had was on March 10 when about an inch of rain fell in most locations. Officially .88" fell at Bush IAH that day.

Most of us will probably stay dry this weekend. There is a 30-40% chance of rain in the forecast. However, IF rain does develop it could be heavy in a few spots.

Saturday will probably start off cloudy. A small disturbance moving along a stalled front will produce some widely scattered showers. Once that lifts northeast the sky will partially clear Saturday afternoon. A few more showers could develop on Sunday but with the front shifting to our north, that's probably where most of the rain will be.

Small chance of big showers

A slow moving cool front will push across Texas the next few days. Temperatures in North Texas will drop 10-15 degrees behind the front. We'll be on the warm side with temps topping 81° Friday afternoon.

A line of thundershowers will develop along the front by Friday afternoon and evening. I have a slight chance of rain in the forecast, but that's primarily for the northern counties. Communities like Brenham, College Station, Huntsville, Livingston and Lufkin could get wet on Friday. The chance of rain shifts southward over the weekend, however.

The cool front is aligned parallel with the upper level winds and will stall over central Texas. Small disturbances moving along the front will produce showers both Saturday and Sunday in the Houston area. The chance of rain is pretty low, but IF rain does develop, the showers could be heavy. By then, there will be plenty of moisture in the atmosphere.

How does your garden grow?

Over Spring Break, my sons and I put in a garden. It's not very big, about 36 square feet. But there's enough room for one tomato plant, three pepper plants, two rows of onions and some radishes and carrots. It was my oldest son's idea. He helps take care of the garden and conservation site at school and he's wanted to dig up the dirt at home for awhile now.

Having grown up in the Midwest, I have some experience with gardens. Everybody in Prairieburg had a garden. We'd eat fresh vegetables all summer long. My grandma kept a glass full of sweet onions on the kitchen table for snacking. (I preferred cookies.) And during the hottest time of the summer, my mom would spend days canning tomatoes and pickles which we'd eat all winter.

I'm not expecting to get enough vegetables out of our little garden patch to can or even give away to neighbors. With a little luck, some sunshine and periodic showers, I'm hoping we produce some memories that will last a lifetime.

What are the chances?

A friend of mine was frustrated by the forecast recently. He had planned to poor some concrete but it poured down rain. “There was only a 30% chance of rain,” he said. “What happened?” The forecast was right. That’s what happened.

A “low chance” of rain is not the same as “no chance” of rain. In this case, there was a 30% chance the atmosphere would produce precipitation somewhere in the area. The percentage does not indicate coverage, or how much of the area will get rain. The “chance of rain” is a personal forecast, the chance that you’ll get wet. Along with the percentage, we usually try and describe the type of rain that could develop: showers, thunderstorms, rain, drizzle, etc. A “30% chance of thundershowers” means there’s a chance of rain with thunder and lightning.  Sure, there’s a better chance you’ll stay dry.  But if a thundershower does develop, the rain could be heavy.

Mud Showers?!

Today you had a great excuse to have a dirty car because last night it rained mud.  Yes, mud.

To be more specific, ash from a large fire in central Mexico along with dirt particles from a dust storm in Monterrey got swept into Texas by yesterday's strong winds.  The ash and dust were carried several thousand feet into the sky where they combined with water droplets in rain clouds over central Texas.  What do you get when mix ash and dust with water?  Well, mud!

These "mud showers" developed over San Antonio and moved east into Houston early Thursday morning.  Thankfully most of the gunk rained out before it got here, but there were still enough ash and dust particles mixed in with the rain to leave a fine coating of dirt on everything outside once the rain water dried up.

Sometimes called a "dirty rain," mud storms are fairly common in west Texas and the panhandle where dust storms occur frequently, but last night's muddy mess is a rarity for us.

Now that you know you why your car suddenly got dirty last night, it's time to think about washing your car.  You can't use this excuse for long!

New Tornado Watch, But...

Tornado Watch #131 has been allowed to expire, and Tornado Watch #133 has been issued to account for the eastward progression of the thunderstorms.

Several counties in southeast Texas are included in the watch, but it appears that the threat for tornadic development has already passed for Houston.  Why?  Because the storms have already moved through.

To our knowledge, not a single tornado developed in the area outlined by Tornado Watch #131, a tornado watch labeled a "particularly dangerous situation" by the Storm Prediction Center. The atmosphere certainly had the potential to produce strong, long-lived tornadoes, but this clearly did not happen today.

Some will take this information and say, "There they go crying wolf again," while others will say, "Thanks for keeping us informed. I'm so glad that no tornadoes developed."

A "Particularly Dangerous Situation"

The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of southeast Texas under a tornado watch until 7PM.

Furthermore, SPC has deemed this a "Particularly Dangerous Situation."

According to their website, "The 'particularly dangerous situation' wording is used in rare situations when long-lived, strong and violent tornadoes are possible."

Storms developing ahead of the main cold front will have the potential to produce these long-lived tornadoes.  Keep in mind that this watch box covers a rather large area, and it is far more likely that any tornado-producing thunderstorms will stay over open land rather than hitting a populated community.  Still, you should track the storms along with us through the rest of the day in case a severe thunderstorm strikes where you live.

Once the cold front arrives this evening, the severe weather threats will transition to high winds and heavy rains.

Stay with ABC 13 for the most up-to-date information on these potentially tornadic thunderstorms.

Track the storms county-by-county with MegaDoppler 13

Watch a live stream of our Mega Doppler 13 radar

Click here for a map showing all active watches and warnings in the area.

Read about how to keep your family safe from the storms.

Want to see how the weather's affecting air travel? Check the status of flights in and out of Houston

1. Track Flight by Number
2. Track Flight by City
3. Track Airport Status
4. Security Wait Time
5. Departing from [Houston Hobby]
6. Arriving to [Houston Hobby]
7. Departing from [Houston Int.]
8. Arriving to [Houston Int.]

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This information is always available on your web-enabled cell phone or PDA at abc13now.com

Stormy Tuesday for Spring Breakers

A Tornado Watch is in effect for Houston, Galveston and much of southeast Texas until 7pm.  We’re expecting strong to severe storms to form across our area this afternoon and evening.  Isolated tornadoes, damaging straight line winds, large hail and heavy rain are possible with the strongest storms.  A Wind Advisory is also in effect for our area until 4pm.

We’re expecting wind speeds of 20-30mph, with gusts up to 35mph.  We’re still expecting a severe weather across our area this afternoon.  The Storm Prediction Center still includes Houston and southeast Texas in a Moderate Risk area for severe storms.  Our biggest threats will be isolated tornadoes, heavy rain, damaging straight line winds, and large hail.  We are expecting a severe weather watch to be issued for our area shortly.

When a moderate risk is issued, the outlined area is expected to be hit with one or more of the following kinds of severe weather:

• 6-19 tornadoes
• +30 high wind events
• +30 reports of hail one inch in diamater or greater

We expect a damaging squall line to develop over the Hill Country tomorrow morning.  As it pushes east, a few supercell thunderstorms may pop up ahead of the line.  These rotating storms will produce the greatest threat for tornadoes, and our exclusive FutureTrack computer model shows that the cap will be weak enough for these dangerous storms to develop between 7AM and 2PM. The squall line is expected to move through Houston between 6PM and 9PM, and when that happens, the severe weather threat will transition to heavy rains and high winds.

Track the storms online with MegaDoppler 13

Watch a live stream of our Mega Doppler 13 radar

Click here for a map showing all active watches and warnings in the area.

Read about how to keep your family safe from the storms.

Now for the good news: our forecast calls for lots of spring break sunshine Wednesday through Saturday.

Want to see how the weather's affecting air travel? Check the status of flights in and out of Houston

1. Track Flight by Number
2. Track Flight by City
3. Track Airport Status
4. Security Wait Time
5. Departing from [Houston Hobby]
6. Arriving to [Houston Hobby]
7. Departing from [Houston Int.]
8. Arriving to [Houston Int.]

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This information is always available on your web-enabled cell phone or PDA at abc13now.com

SkyWarn meeting in Rosenberg

The National Weather Service will be holding a SkyWarn training class Monday, March 17 at the Fort Bend County Annex Building in Rosenberg. The meeting is from 6:30-9:30 PM. And it's free!

SkyWarn volunteers help the National Weather Service during severe weather by reporting hail, wind damage and flooding.  While radar can be used to identify storms which are capable of producing severe weather, it helps to have an eyewitness report to confirm what the radar is showing.

Storm warnings are often issued based on reports relayed from trained spotters. Here's your chance to get involved...and help your community.