Severe weather likely on Saturday

Updated Friday evening:

Scattered thunderstorms will move across southeast Texas overnight. Some could produce large hail and damaging winds. While isolated severe storms are possible overnight, the threat of severe weather increases on Saturday.

There is a moderate risk of severe weather in southeast Texas on Saturday. The ABC13 forecast calls for a 100% chance of thunderstorms on Saturday. There is a 45% chance of tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds during the afternoon and evening hours. There is a greater threat of tornadoes than we normally experience here in southeast Texas.

A "moderate risk" means at least 30 reports of large hail will probably develop within the designated area. 6-19 tornadoes and/or more than 30 reports of damaging winds are also likely. Based on our analysis, we believe there's a possibility the Storm Prediction Center might upgrade this threat to a "high risk" Saturday morning. A "high risk" implies an even greater threat of severe weather with violent tornadoes.

Warm, moist air will be blowing into the area on Friday. A few showers could develop today, but the real action will take place ahead and along the front on Saturday. The atmosphere will be capped by a layer of warm air aloft and that should limit the number of storms that initially develop. However, once the cap weakens and storms begin to pop, they will strengthen very quickly. There will be a strong southeast wind blowing into the area with upper level winds blowing from the southwest. This change of wind direction with height will cause some of these storms to rotate. Supercells that develop Saturday afternoon could produce tornadoes within the Houston area.

Eventually the storms will merge with a squall line that will be developing along the cold front Saturday night. There's a possibility those storms could also produce tornadoes, although large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat.

The fast changing weather this weekend might require you to take fast action. I urge you to continue to monitor the weather on-air and on-line at www.abc13.com.

Comments

[Christian]

I have been watching the radar and it looks like the storms havn't blown up as much as I anticipated. They look like they are lining up into a squall line instead of just becoming supercells. Has the cap broken over Houston?

RESPONSE from TIM HELLER: No the cap hasn't broken yet (as of 5:00 PM). We expect it to weaken over the next few hours as the upper low pushes this way with colder air aloft.

[lre]

Would like to take my girls to the movies and or Galleria during the heaviest part of the storm. What will be the prime time for the immediate Houston area?

RESPONSE from TIM HELLER: I can't imagine a worst place to be during a severe storm.

[Muhammad]

If there was a tornado, what should I do?

RESPONSE from TIM HELLER: I just added a link above to our online severe weather guide.

[kim]

I live in a mobile home in hockley with 5 grandsons under the age of three I'm freaking out about the weather that is to come. Should we leave?

RESPONSE from TIM HELLER: First of all, don't "freak out." The reason we give you a few days notice about the upcoming weather change is so you can make alternative plans. Now that the storms are here, you have to try and protect yourself and your grandsons the best you can.

Ideally, you should leave the mobile home ahead of the storms and take shelter in a substantial structure. If that's not possible, you have to improvise. Find a spot in your home toward the center, away from outside doors and windows. A closet works well. Protect yourself with blankets or a mattress is the storm bears down on you. You could even stick the kids in the bathtub and cover it with a mattress or the pads from your coach. It's not 100% safe, but it might be the best you can do.

[J Stone]

Be prepared, folks, but don't panic. A 15% chance of a tornado doesn't mean there's a 15% chance one will strike YOUR home, just a 15% chance that at least one will occur in the entire thousands of square miles that we call southeast Texas.

Stay calm, but stay tuned!

RESPONSE from TIM HELLER: It means there's a 15% chance of a tornado developing within 25 miles of any point in the area.

[csb1021]

What time is the storms going to hit houston/pearland area?

RESPONSE from TIM HELLER: It doesn't matter where you live in southeast Texas, the threat of severe weather and tornadoes begins at 2PM today and lasts thru 10PM tonight.

[collin]

just keep a eye on the weather.. weather always changes

[Amber]

I am scared out of my mind i hate bad weather. I was just wondering if you knew how bad it will likley get for bacliff tx.

[Kayla]

Hi Chris,

Here are some ideas for the weekend.

1) The first thing I would do is to think of some adults that you trust. Maybe they are neighbors, your friends' parents, or someone you know at church or school. (If you talk to your mother you can ask her for ideas.) Find their phone numbers and make a list. Find out if they will be home and tell them you may want to give them a call if you're scared or if you need advice. It might feel awkward to call, but I know it will be totally fine with the adults. In fact, it makes all of us feel good when someone trusts us enough to ask for advice or help. Just say what you wrote in the blog. Get their cell phone numbers also. Give them your Grandmother's numbers. They may want to check on you.

2) Do you have a cell phone? Recharge it. It will work even if the power is out and is safe to use any time. You probably have cordless phones in the house. They will not work if the power is out, but if the power is still on, it is completely safe to use them since the receiver you're holding isn't connected to a wire. Corded phones that have wires from the wall to the phone, and from the phone to the receiver, will work even when the power is out. (A tiny current from the phone company runs through the phone line to make it work.) But don't use a corded phone during the actual thunderstorm. Lightning can go through a phone cord.

3) Put flashlights where you can find them easily. If you have a battery powered radio, put it with the flashlights. You might want to listen to it if the power goes out and you can't watch the television. (Don't forget to check the batteries.)

4) Decide where to go inside the house if there is a tornado warning in your area. Choose a room on the first floor that doesn't have any windows. It might be the bathroom or a closet. Take your phone, flashlight and radio. I hated to write this because there is such a tiny probability you'll even need to go there, but it is good to be prepared so you don't have to stop and think about what to do in an emergency.

You'll do great. You've been watching the weather and thinking ahead so I know you're a responsible and smart kid. Trust yourself.

Kayla

[lou]

Where do I sign up for weather alert on my cell phone.Cant find it.

RESPONSE from Tim Heller:
Click here: http://www.abc13now.com/wireless/signup.cfm?sid=25&pageid=textalert1_main

[Kristi]

to anyone who reads this. if you have a home or renters insurance, please update your photo records.
(take pics of your property) I have lived thru several tornadoes growning up and the having pic help the recovery process. and with the new digital cameras just load up a memory card and vacuum seal it, or safety box it and just update every few months. if your wallet is tight get a disposible and u can get it download to a cd for cheap at walgreens. Also please be careful, these storms are not needed to be ingored. even a strong wind can damage lots, my family has a weather plan. its simmilar to the hurricane plan, but on a smaller scale.
can food, non electric can opener, flash light with extra batteries, bottle water, books and board games. and a change of clean clothes

[dbrown]

I am 44 years old. This weather scenario does not happen here often. I have been studying these things for years. Take this one seriously. The upper air support reminds me of a couple of other times that we had wide spread Tornadic activity. Doug B.

[chris]

im scared im here with my grandmother and my mother has gone out of town. What should i do???