Hurricane Humberto Breaks Record

Hurricane Humberto made landfall at 2:09 this morning just east of High Island.  Wind speeds at landfall were estimated to be 85 mph.  We speculated on this blog that the storm could reach hurricane strength, but the fact that it did so surprised just about everyone, including the National Hurricane Center.  Check out the last paragraph from their 10 am discussion (I have translated the speeds and times in parentheses):

"BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT (35 mph) DEPRESSION AT 15Z (10 am) YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT (85 mph) HURRICANE AT 09Z (4 am) THIS MORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT (50 mph) IN 18 HOURS.  TO PUT THIS DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR LANDFALL.  IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW...SOMEDAY...WHY THIS HAPPENED."

Technically, the storm had 85 mph winds as early as 2 am, but the point is that we have never seen a tropical depression intensify this rapidly into a hurricane just prior to making landfall.  One thing we can all learn from this storm is the importance of preparing your family for hurricane season before the season even begins.

Comments

[Travis Herzog]

Tom - I see the source of confusion. "Tropical cyclone" is an all-encompassing weather term that generically refers to any low over the tropics. So anything from a tropical depression to a hurricane is considered a tropical cyclone.

[Tom Gearing]

Travis - thanks for the clarification. Since the all-uppercase, quoted part of the post says "TROPICAL CYCLONE" while the lowercase part says "tropical depression" I didn't know which was to be taken as authorative. Thanks.

[Travis Herzog]

Tom - Great question. I think the key qualifier here is that no tropical *depression* has intensified this rapidly when making its approach to land. As you correctly noted with Opal (a nightmare scenario), there have been greater intensity increases, but Opal was a hurricane, not a depression.

Because the National Hurricane Center used the phrase "faster rate" in their discussion, I assume they are referring to elapsed time prior to landfall.

[Tom Gearing]

What is your criteria for "close to landfall" exclusions? Ignoring the rapid increase of Hurricane Opal in 1995, which went from 75 mph to 145 mph in 9 hours seems a bit arbitratry.
Doing the math: delta-V = 70 mph, delta-T = 9 hrs, for a rate of 7.778 mph/hr. And Humberto's rate? 50/18 = 2.778 mph/hr. Even using the "2 hours sooner" values: 50/16 = 3.125 mph/hr.
"Late on October 3, as Opal headed toward the northeast Gulf coast, the hurricane strengthend at a frightening rate. NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported the pressure was falling at the rate of 3 mb an hour. By early the next day (October 4), aircraft reported the pressure had fallen to 916 mb (27.05 in), and sustained winds had increased to 150 mph. ... The eye of Hurricane Opal crossed the coast near Santa Rosa Island around 6:00 pm on October 4th." Close to landfall in distance or in elapsed time?

[ashley]

i guess hurricanes are unpredictable
but wow this thing surprised me i got home at around 8 from my daughter's volleyball game i turned on the tv and all of the sudden i see what was then tropical storm humberto on the right hand corner of every news channel i turn it to abc 13 and find the storm was tracked to houston
my jaw dropped and umm... my daughter just had the last bottle water
i go to the store get water, canned food, tape
i come home and find that we are out of the cone
was my face red
well at least i'm prepared for the next storm

[Kim Stellhorn]

At first I could not believe folks are blaming the NWS, the TV station, FEMA, etc, etc because they did not prepare for this storm. In years past I have had one of the few houses in my neigborhood with windows covered days ahead of the official forecast. But stopping to think about it most folks do not really pay attention to the weather even through this system was in the Gulf for the last week. Also I think most folks really never think it is going to effect them, they would rather belief whatever forecast takes the storm in another direction.
I was greatly relieved Wednesday afternoon when the track was being forecast to the NE instead of just east of Freeport.

[JACK PENNINGTON]

I JUST WANTED TO DROP A LINE AND SAY THAT MR. HELLER AND COMPANY DID AN OUTSTANDING JOB GETING THE WORD OUT .
THANK YOU!!!!!