Atlantic tropical wave has interesting forecast track

A tropical wave has moved into the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. It's out in the middle of open water, of course, but the long, long, long range forecast track of one computer model shows this becoming a well organized storm, perhaps our first big hurricane.

Now hold on... I'm not trying to scare anyone. If you think that's the case, stop reading now. I figure this blog is a perfect place to mention some things we're tracking, things that won't make it into the nightly weathercast until we have more confidence in what could develop. If you don't want to know, stop reading now.  Ken Hoffman that means you.

One of the models we use at ABC13 to create your forecast is called the GFS, which stands for Global Forecast System. For the past couple of days it has been forecasting a tropical cyclone tracking straight into the Gulf of Mexico about 10-12 days from now. This model updates every 6 hours and has been consistent about this storm for a few days now.

Here are a couple of charts from Saturday afternoon's output. The first chart shows the pressure pattern over the U.S. in the mid-levels of the atmosphere on Thursday, August 23. What do you notice? The big area of hot high pressure is gone, replaced with a trough of low pressure. Travis Herzog recently wrote here about how these troughs can become "hurricane magnets."

The second chart shows the pressure pattern and precipitation at ground level. What do you notice? That big blob would be a hurricane....IF the model is correct. And that's a big "if."

Now a word about these forecast models: they are occasionally very wrong. Remember that one time it rained when I said it would be sunny? That was the model's fault; it showed dry weather.  The models also tend to have a left bias when trying to forecast the track of hurricanes. Which means if the model is showing a storm tracking toward Texas it probably would make landfall well east of us...if it develops at all! Finally, the track and intensity of a hurricane is fickle and is dependent on the environment in which it develops. Forecast models don't always identify small disturbances in the atmosphere that can have a major affect on what actually happens.

This is really the first time this season this particular model has developed such a big storm. It will be interesting to see what actually develops 10-12 days from now. There could be nothing at all!  I know some readers of this blog like knowing some of the background or behind-the-scenes details of the forecast so I thought I'd share this with you. If you think I'm mentioning this in the blog to drum up ratings, then you should have stopped reading six paragraphs back.

Comments

[Denise]

Is this related to the possible tropical storm that one model has hitting Corpus Christi on Wednesday??

Thanks for the info.

[Milmudda]

Well, I don't believe that a hurricane hitting the Gulf coast has anything to do with us being "due" (duh) for one. However, the mild summer with rain until August, the wind patterns being different, and the sudden presence of El Nino, along with the height of the warm wind pattern, might bring one in.
As far as being "due"......that's an old adage that belongs in the farmers almanac.

[Krystal]

Thank you Tim for this interesting update. That way if a hurricane does come we will better know what to do if and when that does happen. We can be well prepared and not have another major disaster killing thousands of people like hurricane Katrina and Rita.
Thanks Tim!

[Steve Haynes]

Mr. Heller,

I realize that weather forecasters like to use these computer models as an indicator to watch for certain systems. However, given all of that, how can climatologists even consider forecasting such things as global warming disasters in the near future or far future for that matter? I think, with absolutely no computer model to go by, that the earth will be in great shape no matter what man does or does not do to it. After all, the earth has endured countless calamities in several billion years of existence so what's the big deal.

[Jo Sheddan]

Your early and candid report is much appreciated. It gives us much more time to prepare and adjust our schedules. If it doesn't happen, we'll be prepared for when/if it does. Thanks Tim!

[sherri]

i think this blog is wonderful. i watch the hurricane update on the weather channel religously during hurricane season to keep up with whats out there. So keep posting and thank you

[Marian]

Let's hope that it turns out to be nothing. However it has been 24 years since Hurricane Alicia, we may be due for a hit of some kind.

If we do get something, hopefully everyone will have a plan in place to get thru any storm smoothly.

[Dee]

I appreciate this kind of information. I have been telling friends "who will listen" that I believe we would have a threat of a hurricane by the time school starts. We have had a strange weather pattern this summer. I do not remember a summer with so much rain for so long. I welcome the long range tropical images. I would rather be prepared for nothing, than to have another Hurricane Rita panic.