Severe Saturday

The storm we've been tracking all week will push into southeast Texas on Saturday. This is a storm that has a history of producing severe weather as it has been moving across the county.  There is a slight risk of severe weather here on Saturday, with damaging winds most likely although hail and even tornadoes are possible. Our exclusive FutureTrack raincast is showing the potential for 2" of rain.

The front is running parallel with winds in the upper atmosphere so it's moving very slowly and will stall somewhere close to Houston on Sunday. There is the possibility the front will completely clear the area and we'll be dry on Sunday! It's also possible the front will stall over us and bring more rain. It's impossible to know where that front will stop.

I'm confident of my forecast on Saturday. But because we can't be certain where that front will stall, my confidence is low for Sunday's forecast.

How's that for honesty? It's not that we can't figure out what might happen. It's just that a minor change in the position of the front will have a major effect on our weather. I've often wondered how viewers would respond if we told them how much confidence or lack of confidence we have in our own forecast. What do you think? Is this something we should try and do more often?

Comments

[Joe Colwell]

Tim;
I watch your forecast religously and you are the best of the forcasters, the most accurate,and straight forward,one in particular is 90 percent gobblydegook and 10 percent weather,we don't want to know what happened yesterday.

[Tiffany]

I think that you sharing your confidence level with the forecast says a lot. We all know there is a certain degree of error in the forecastm especially in Houston Texas!, but if you share like you just did, it allows us to plan and make alternate plans. Keep up the GREAT work.

[John]

I'm rather amazed at the extremely high degree of accuracy I see by TV meteorologists today. But in the event you're not certain about something, I'd rather have you say that up front. Either way, you do a great job.

[Sabina Berman]

Tim, thank you for the honesty. Great blog and great forecasting! :)

[Joel Pirtle]

I believe that it is good for meteorologists to be honest, because it is hard to predict the weather. I know just for me as a teenager who loves learning about the weather, my family asks me what the weather will be like, and I will either tell them to watch CH 13, give them my opinion of what the weather will be like, or I will tell them, that I just don't know what the weather will be like. So in my opinion, it is good to be very honest.

[Ed S.]

If scientific predictions or estimates do not state the uncertainty associated with them, they become more like witchcraft than science. A credible prediction with uncertainty estimates is the only way to go.

[laurie]

Yes, we want to know your level of confidence in what you predict, you are the experts and we rely on you. You have no control over the weather, we know that, but you do a heck of a job in letting us know what it might do next, what more can we ask for? Keep up the Mega Doppling!

[Tom Loftin]

Absolutely! Knowing the uncertainty gives us a better understanding of the probabilities. Thanks.

[Carol Farmer]

Tim, I am a native Houstonian. There has never been 100% accuracy in weather reporting, especially in the Houston area. There are too many factors involved on the Gulf Coast which can affect the weather. Honesty is always best for viewers - no dramatics, please. You are a delightful addition to Channel 13....is there another channel in Houston for news, weather or sports?

[Vera Rivera]

Your honesty is important. I trust 13 weather forcasts very much and watch other station's forcasts just to prove myself wrong(that your forcasts are wrong), but you forcast always wins out. Your honesty has always been projected by your, and I mean all 13 weathermen, maybe even subconscience, statements and how they are stated. Don't get too cocky with your "ownership"(Tim Heller's) of the forcast. Other weathermen give the same forcast for channel 13 weather. They could get cocky, too, and I don't like cocky. Anyway, saying "MY FORCAST" will give people fuel for saying how wrong you are/were, no matter that you're right 97+ percent of the time. I gave you more of my opinion than I was asked. Hope it is useful, though you must remember its only my OPINION, and it shouldn't count for much.

[Patricia Larson]

Yes, it is very helpful for you to be honest and express your confidence level in the forecast. Knowing the past history of the system,the jet stream, winds aloft & pressure systems help us understand more too. Thank you for your efforts to keep us educated on all the different aspects of the weather we experiance.

[Cindy]

I agree with honesty. I would rather hear that you do not know what is going to happen then the weather go the opposite direction. This has happened more times than not because it is TEXAS and our weather can change in the blink of an eye. You are a pleasant addition to the ABC13 news.

[Shelia Stokes]

I think that meteorologist should be as honest as possible about the weather conditions. In any other job, if you don't know something, I'ts ok to simply say "I don't know." Why should your job be any different. If there is a high degree of variablility to your forecast, tell me. I'm a big girl and I can handle it. It insults my intellegence to sugar coat the truth.

[Sandy Christian]

Knowing what you think will happen is valuable, but knowing the options means I can prepare better for anything. So, bring on the reality of what's likely to happen and what's possible.

[Michael]

tim, i have been watching your forecasts since you started at ABC13 and you and your staff have done an excellent job. I make my plans around your forecast and i could always use more confidence when it come to the weather especially this time of year. Keep up the great job.

[Nancy]

I have no problem with honesty. Somethings you just can't know with 100% accuracy. This year's weather should have taught us that, if nothing else.