Changes to ABC 13 Weather Twitter and Facebook accounts

In order to better serve our viewers, we're changing how we use Twitter and Facebook at ABC 13.

More Updates Every Day
We're expanding our social media weather coverage with updates posted throughout the day: every day, every night and every weekend.  You'll get links to video webcasts, status updates on changes in the weather and real-time facts and figures about the weather in the Houston-Galveston area.

24/7 Severe Weather Coverage
Whenever severe thunderstorms threaten southeast Texas, you'll know about it first if you follow "abc13weather" on Twitter and Facebook.  Weather watches and warnings are now posted automatically, within seconds after being issued by the National Weather Service.

Submit Your Storm Reports and Weather Photos
Our pages are open to everyone. You can use our Facebook and Twitter pages to report severe weather in your neighborhood.  We monitor our social media accounts throughout our newscasts, so your updates could be featured during our weathercasts.

New "HellerWeather" pages
To keep the "abc13weather" accounts focused on Houston-Galveston weather, I set up a new "HellerWeather" Twitter and Facebook account for everything else.

Want to know when the Space Station will pass over Houston?
Follow HellerWeather.
Want to know more about a car named the "Hurricane?"
Follow HellerWeather.
Want to see some pictures of the Lubbock dust storm?
Follow HellerWeather.

The HellerWeather Twitter account, will be geared more toward "weather geeks" and techies, while the HellerWeather Facebook page will be more conversational.  Follow both!

Together, "abc13weather" and "HellerWeather" will provide complete weather coverage of southeast Texas.

Cold front headed this way next week

Not a cool front, but a real honest to goodness cold front should arrive in Houston early next week. Temperatures will be the coolest since mid-April!

This weekend will be warm with high temperatures pushing 90° both Saturday and Sunday afternoon.  But the jet stream is shifting southward and a taste of fall will soon invade the central U.S.

Low temperatures across the midwest will drop below freezing by Wednesday and Thursday morning. Around here, we'll drop into the mid 40s.  The last time it was that cool was April 16.

Lots of cool air, very little rain
Unfortunately, the cold front that will bring the cooler weather will not generate much rain. The atmosphere is very dry and won't have a chance to recharge with moisture. A few isolated showers might develop on Tuesday, but it won't be like last weekend's storm. 

New Twitter and Facebook pages!
In addition to the "abc13weather" Twitter and Facebook pages, follow my new personal "HellerWeather" page for a different take on the weather.

Click here to follow me on Twitter.
Click here to follow me on Facebook.

Benefits of weekend rain quickly drying up

The soaking rain that fell over the weekend was good for the ground. But we need about 4-5 more storms just like that over the next 30 days to end the drought.

Officially, 3.02" of rain fell at Bush Intercontinental Airport on Sunday. That's the most rain to fall in one day since July 2, 2010.  Our Eyewitness Storm Spotter, Terri Williams, reported 7.02" of rain at her house in Pasadena. Between 4-5" fell in Jersey Village, Bayou Vista, Pearland, Santa Fe and Texas City.

ABC13 Meteorologist Travis Herzog did some number crunching and discovered the widespread rain dumped a tremendous amount of water in our area lakes. Based on preliminary data from the USGS sensors, about 7.5 billion gallons of water was added to Lake Livingston during the rain storm.  That sounds like a lot, but it's really only 1.3% of the lake's total storage capacity.  About 1.7 billion gallons of water fell on Lake Houston and about 782 million gallons of water fell on Lake Conroe.

All this water caused a very small rise in the lake levels.  But after two days of sunshine, the lake capacity is almost as low as it was before the weekend rain.

Not much rain in the forecast
A couple of weak cool fronts will move into southeast Texas over the next week, with the first arriving very early Thursday morning.  Although a few isolated showers might develop along the cool fronts, the rainfall will not be widespread nor as heavy as it was on Sunday.

Tropical development in Gulf will affect our rain chances

A few days ago, it looked like a wet weather pattern would be developing over southeast Texas. Moisture was set to return on the increasing southeasterly winds, bringing humidity, clouds and scattered showers ahead of a slow moving cool front.

I still think we'll get some rain.  The question is: how much.

Uncertainty in the forecast
There have been some differences between the two weather models we consult when writing the extended forecast.  The European Center's medium range weather forecast model (ECMWF) has been consistently showing an area of low pressure developing in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The Global Forecast System (GFS) was showing a similar storm, but initially positioned the low east of Florida. Later runs of the GFS now show the storm developing farther west.

Unfortunately, it looks like the low will not be close enough to throw rain our way. Furthermore, the deeper the low pressure, the stronger the storm will become.  And the stronger the storm becomes, the more moisture will be pulled into the circulation.

Between the raindrops
The rainfall forecast still indicates some rain could fall around the Houston area this weekend.

But if that storm in the Gulf develops and intensifies into a tropical cyclone, we could end up between two wet weather makers. Once again, missing the rain.

Keep up with changes in the forecast by following us on Twitter and Facebook.

New drone plane to be flown into hurricanes

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will conduct a test flight of a new type of Hurricane Hunter airplane in a few weeks.  But this plane is only three feet long and weighs only eight pounds.

The unmanned drone, called GALE, will be flown into the eye of a hurricane where it will collect data that can be used to help forecast the intensity of the storm.  

Made of light-weight composite material, the plane can stay aloft for about 90 minutes. Pilots on the ground will maneuver it using remote control. Just before the mini-aircraft runs out of power, GALE will be flown into the eyewall of the hurricane where researchers hope the violent winds throw the device around, enabling them to gather even more data. 

Each drone costs about $30,000 and can only be used one time.

According to the Sun-Sentinel, the first model will be ready to fly in a couple of weeks.  Two more test flights are planned for next year.

Photo from Sun-Sentinel.

 

Texas drought could last through 2020

I previously wrote that drought conditions could last through the winter and into next year. But the Texas state climatologist takes it another step farther.  Dr. John Nielson-Gammon says the drought could last another nine years.

A multi-year drought is not unprecedented.  The state's worst drought on record lasted seven years, from 1950-1957.  But we might end up beating that record.

Water temps in the Pacific affect our weather
La Nina, which refers to a weather change caused by cooling water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is responsible for the current drought. Dr. N-G, as he's called by his students at Texas A&M University, says La Nina could continue for an extended period of time.

"The long-term weather patterns mirror records from the early 1950s," Nielsen-Gammon told Reuters.

That doesn't mean it won't ever rain again. We could have wet periods between the dry seasons. Drought conditions could abate and then return.  Dry conditions could become the new normal in Texas.

Time to buy stock in a cactus company.

Photo above from Rick Ramsey.

Extreme wildfire danger through the fall and winter

The Texas Forest Service warned Tuesday that dangerous wildfire conditions could continue for several more months.

Last month, I wrote about the possibility of the drought continuing into next year.  With the abundance of dead and dying vegetation covering the state, a wildfire could spread very quickly. Adding to the problem, winds tend to blow faster during the fall and winter.

Tom Spencer, head of the wildfire Predictive Services Department, thinks this fall could be much for active for firefighters. "Traditionally, wildfire occurrence is low during this time of year," he said. "This fall the scope of the danger zone has expanded to include most of Texas and even some surrounding states.

Few showers possible this week
A weak stationary front draped across Texas could produce a few thundershowers the next couple of days. While any rain is welcome, it won't be enough to ease the drought conditions.

Stronger winds possible
Winds could increase on Friday and Saturday, blowing 10-20 mph from the northeast.  If any wildfires get started around here, the flames could quickly spread.  Please don't throw cigarette butts out the window and hold off using the grill.

Summer is officially over!

At 4:04 AM Friday morning, the sun was directly over the equator, marking the Autumnal Equinox. 

 
Of course, the sun doesn't move, but as we orbit the sun it changes position in the sky because of the Earth's tilt. And for the next three months it will be appearing lower and lower in the sky, until the Winter Solstice.

While summer is officially over, it might take a few weeks for the weather to catch up with the calendar.  But now that the sun is no longer directly overhead, the atmosphere naturally cools.

It won't be long before we'll need our jackets!

Report: Many residents in Joplin, Missouri ignored tornado warnings

22 minutes before a mile-wide tornado tore through Joplin, Missouri on May 22, warning sirens wailed for three minutes. Yet some people ignored the warning. In the end, 159 people died in that storm.  It was the deadliest tornado to hit the U.S. in almost sixty years.

 

"The majority of surveyed Joplin residents did not immediately go to shelter upon hearing the initial warning," according to a new study conducted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Instead, some took the time to seek out additional information on TV and radio while others went outside to check the weather themselves.

Over one hundred people in Joplin, including 60 storm survivors, were interviewed for the study.  Many pointed out that they hear the tornado sirens all the time and the large number of false alarms caused them hesitate.

Too many warnings
City leaders in Joplin sound the sirens "when either a tornado is reported to be moving toward Joplin or severe thunderstorm winds are expected to exceed 75 mph." 

But 76% of all tornado warnings issued by the National Weather Service are false alarms!  46% of all severe thunderstorm warnings are unnecessary.  In my opinion, if the National Weather Service reduced the large number of false alarms, people would start paying attention to the warnings.

This tornado was not survivable
The warning for this tornado was not false. It was a real, unusually large tornado and it moved very slowly through the heart of a densely populated community where few people have underground storm shelters.

As Richard Wagenmaker, a National Weather Service meteorologist and leader of the assessment team, pointed out.  "There were certainly a number of people who did all the right things, took shelter in the best available place, but still found themselves in situations that weren't survivable." 

You can read the full report here.

Heaviest rain in three months!

More rain fell over the last three days than has fallen over the last three months here in southeast Texas. 

 
Radar data reveals almost everybody got a little rain this weekend. Some had a lot!  More than four inches fell over three days in northern Liberty and southern San Jacinto counties.  But radar indicates only a few sprinkles fell in northern Colorado and Fayette counties. 

The last time widespread heavy rain fell in southeast Texas was June 22, almost three months ago!

The last time measurable rain fell three days in a row was January 23-25, almost nine months ago!

It might be awhile before we see rain like that again. A few isolated showers are possible on Wednesday and Thursday, but most of us will stay dry.

List of records set this summer in Houston

Tuesday was another triple digit day in Houston. We've had almost four dozen days with a high temperature at or above 100° this summer. 

Here's a list of the records we've set so far this year:

• Most 100° Days in a Year - 45 days and counting
• Most 100° Days in a Row - 24 days (August 1-24)
• Earliest 100° Temperature - 100° on June 2
• Hottest Day so late in the Year- 102° on September 13
• Hottest Day Ever Recorded - 109° on August 27
• Warmest June on Record  - Average Temp 86.2°
• Third Warmest July on Record - Average Temp 87.1°
• Warmest August on Record - Average Temp 90.4°
• Warmest Summer on Record - Average Temp 87.9°

and finally...

• Warmest Year on Record
• Driest Year on Record

This doesn't include a number of daily record high temperatures set throughout the summer.

The good folks at the Houston-Galveston National Weather Service office record the local climate data and maintain the official list of records for this area.

 

 

 

Warming up this weekend

I hope you enjoyed the cool mornings this week.  And I hope you weren't expecting that taste of fall to last.

Temperatures have been creeping back up and we'll get close to 100° again this weekend. Record highs are possible early next week.

So far this summer we've had a record 43 triple digit days. I think we have a few more coming.

Forecast remains dry
Tropical Storm Nate will be tracking into Mexico this weekend. That means we miss out on the rain(again.)  Unfortunately, there's no other weather systems headed this way. Our rain forecast for the next week shows rain falling all around us...but nothing here.

Drought conditions possible into next year
I wrote a long blog post last month explaining why I thought the drought could continue through the winter and into 2012.  The long range forecast still doesn't look good.

The water in the central Pacific Ocean continues to cool, a sign that La Nina is returning. This will shift the jet stream north of Texas and leave us out of the storm track this winter.  If we don't recharge the soil with plentiful rain this winter, the drought next spring and summer could be worse than it is now....if that's possible.

 

Tropical Storm Nate getting stronger

The fourteenth storm of the season could become the third hurricane late tonight or early Friday. Although Tropical Storm Nate is nearly stationary, the maximum winds are getting stronger, according to data gathered by Hurricane Hunters.

Maximum flight levels winds are about 80 mph. Surface winds are usually about 5-10% weaker, just under hurricane strength.

Nate is not a very big storm but once it moves north out of the Bay of Campeche it could slowly strengthen. Wind shear is weak which could allow the circulation to become better organized, but a large area of dry air north of the storm might keep it from becoming a major hurricane.

Weak steering currents
Just like the last storm in the Gulf, early versions of the forecast models fail to provide much guidance.  However, new data coming in this evening favors a turn toward Mexico. Unfortunately that means the rain will miss us again.

Winds could increase this weekend
If Nate continues to strengthen, winds blowing into the circulation will likely get stronger.  This could cause our winds to increase from the north this weekend, raising the fire danger even higher.

 

Tracking smoke from local wildfires on satellite

Smoke from wildfires burning northwest of Houston is visible on our high-resolution weather satellites. 

 

Light winds blowing from the northeast are pushing the smoke from the Magnolia area across Waller county, Austin county and as far south as Colorado and Wharton counties.  The smoke was thick enough Wednesday afternoon to cast a shadow on the Earth below, as seen in the image above.

I expect winds to relax overnight, blowing less than five miles per hour.  Once the sun comes up Thursday and Friday, the winds will begin to blow from the northeast at 10-15 mph.

Tropical Storm Nate
The disturbance I've been tracking in the Bay of Campeche was upgraded to a tropical storm Wednesday afternoon.  Unfortunately, I don't expect this storm to bring us any rain.  Adding insult to injury, if Nate strengthens into a stronger storm it could cause the winds blowing over southeast Texas to increase this weekend.

You can track the movement of Tropical Storm Nate using our free Interactive Hurricane Tracking Map.  Click on the "Tropical" drop-down menu to access the latest computer model tracks, wind and wave information from buoys in the Gulf of Mexico and recon data from the Hurricane Hunters.

Cooler temperatures ahead this week

The north winds blowing behind Tropical Storm Lee will push drier, cooler air into southeast Texas this week.

It's still going to be warm today. Temperatures will hit the mid 90s this afternoon but it will be a "dry heat" with lower humidity.  The gusty winds will also make it feel a little more comfortable.

A taste of fall
Temperatures should drop into the 60s early Tuesday morning, the coolest its been since May! I wouldn't be surprised if a few outlying spots dropped into the upper 50s. 

Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s/lower 90s.  That's about fifteen degrees cooler than it was last week! 

Finally.

 

Still a (small) chance of rain this weekend

Tropical Storm Lee will produce very heavy rain in southern Louisiana as the storm moves ashore this weekend. The counter-clockwise circulation around the low pressure should bring some scattered downpours to the Houston-Galveston area, but it won't be nearly enough. 

I'm putting the chance of rain on Saturday at 30%, with a slightly better chance on Sunday. 

After the storm makes landfall, the circulation will collapse and the moisture will spread out over a wider area. That's when I think we have the best chance of getting some rain here, on the far west side of the storm.

A low chance does not mean "no chance"
Judging by some of the comments on Facebook, many people thought this tropical storm would bring widespread heavy rain to southeast Texas. I'm not sure where that idea came from. We've maintained a 30-50% chance of rain in the forecast all week.  Those aren't the best odds, but it does allow for a few heavy showers, which is probably what we'll get in some neighborhoods.

Labor Day forecast
By Monday, what's left of Lee will drift northeast and our sky will clear. Strong northerly winds on the back side of the circulation will drive drier air into southeast Texas. Dry air heats up pretty quickly so we'll still have temperatures in the mid 90s, but it will be a "dry heat!" 

The same north wind should deliver slightly cooler weather starting Tuesday.

Tropical depression could bring torrential rain...to Louisiana

Tropical Depression #13 formed early Thursday evening in the central Gulf of Mexico. Based on what I'm seeing on satellite, the storm will likely be upgraded to a named tropical storm very soon.  The next name on the list is, "Lee."

We've been tracking the possible development of this storm for several days.  Hurricane Hunters were dispatched to fly through the disturbance earlier in the day and found a closed circulation. The storm is large and very disorganized, but water temps in the northern Gulf are between 85-89° and the wind shear is weakening. This could allow the storm to strengthen very quickly.

But it won't be moving very fast. Steering currents are weak so the cyclone will be drifting northward, possibly making landfall on Sunday in southern Louisiana.

The main threat from this storm appears to be the heavy rain. One of our forecast models suggest 12-20" of rain could fall across a large part of southern Louisiana and Mississippi.  That would cause serious flooding.

Your local forecast
Although most of the widespread rain will probably fall in Louisiana, we'll still get a few heavy squalls around here this holiday weekend.  Unless the storm changes direction, and that could happen, the best chance of rain is east of I-45.

The biggest threat for those heading to the beach will be periodic lightning and dangerous rip currents along the Galveston shore.

Tracking the tropics
You can follow the storm using our free Interactive Hurricane Tracking Map.  Between updates here on the Houston Weather Blog, I'll also be posting messages on our Twitter and Facebook pages.

 

Storm begins to take shape in the Gulf of Mexico

The National Hurricane Center designated the tropical wave in the southern Gulf of Mexico as "Invest 93L."  This is the first step in tracking the development of the would-be storm.  Now, some of the more sophisticated hurricane forecast models will be run to determine (1) if the clouds will organize into a closed circulation (2) how strong it might become and (3) where it's going to go.

As of Wednesday afternoon, the storm appeared to be growing larger but remained very disorganized.

We are certain about the uncertainty
Some of the early forecasts show a storm developing off the Texas coast and stalling just offshore.  Other models show a stronger storm moving quickly into Louisiana. And then there's the European models which favor a landfall near Brownsville but not until early next week.

Which solution is correct? None of the models have demonstrated any consistency in the forecast; today's guidance is different than yesterday. 

This makes predicting our local weather nearly impossible.

Hurricane Hunters scheduled to fly
Reconnaissance flights are scheduled for Thursday afternoon. Once the data from the Hurricane Hunters is ingested into the forecast models we should have a better idea of what's ahead.

Forecast factors
High pressure located over the central U.S. and a developing trough of low pressure are two big players in the overall dynamics that will affect the storm track. If the high remains strong, the storm could stall over the Gulf for a few days.  If the trough along the eastern U.S. is deep enough it could pull the storm to our east.  If either of those scenarios play out, we'll end up with sunshine and warmer temperatures.

If the high pressure weakens or shifts away from Texas, it will allow the storm (and the rain) to move in this weekend. Unfortunately, I think this is less likely to occur. That's why we've lowered the chance of rain for the weekend and brought up the high temperatures a few degrees.

As I keep saying: the forecast will likely change over the next few days.

Watching for tropical development in the Gulf

Your Labor Day weekend could be very wet...or dry, depending on which forecast model you look at.

A tropical wave appears to be forming in the northwest part of the Caribbean Sea. All of the long-range forecast models show the disturbance drifting into the Gulf of Mexico and developing into a tropical cyclone later this week. But they all differ on how strong the storm will be and where it's headed.

Different models, different solutions
There's a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. 

If a storm does develop and if it tracks toward Louisiana like the GFDL and HWRF predict, all the moisture would be pulled into the circulation and we'll end up with a mostly sunny sky and temps in the upper 90s or higher. 

If NAM or the Canadian CMC model is correct, the storm will develop farther west, closer to Galveston, and we'll get some healthy rain.  If the storm stalls or drifts along the coast, as indicated by the GFS, we could have periods of heavy rain for a few days.

Both European models show the storm developing closer to Brownsville, but not until early next week. That might still bring us a little rain.

Making it even more complicated: each model shows a different scenario each time it updates, which is every 6-12 hours.

Here's the problem
At this point the forecast models are all trying to predict the movement of something that hasn't developed yet.  The big player is high pressure located in the central U.S.  The strength and position of the high pressure will determine where the low pressure tropical storm will develop and where it will track...or if it will stall.

We are certain of this: your forecast will change a lot over the next few days.

The next name on the list is Lee.

Hurricane Irene is a lot like Hurricane Ike

"It's only a category 2 hurricane." 
That's what our reporters in North Carolina have heard from a couple of people who are choosing to ride out the storm instead of evacuating.

Sound familiar?

That's what some people said about Hurricane Ike the day before it made landfall in southeast Texas on September 13, 2008.

The strength of a hurricane is currently gauged on the maximum speed of the wind and does not reflect the amount of storm surge that will wash ashore.  During Hurricane Ike, over fifteen feet of water washed ashore to the right of the circulation and devastated Bolivar Peninsula. And it was "only a category 2" hurricane.

Both are wide storms.
Although maximum winds in Hurricane Irene are currently ranked category two status on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, the hurricane force winds extend 90 miles out from the center of the storm.  The tropical storm force winds extend out 290 miles.  Similarly, tropical storm force winds in Hurricane Ike extended 275 miles out from the storm center.

In the case of Hurricane Irene, offshore buoys have already measured wave heights between 20-40'.  While the topography along the east coast of North Carolina is different than it is in southeast Texas, the National Hurricane Center is predicting an "extremely dangerous storm surge" with water rising "as much as 6 to 11 feet above ground level."

This storm could be more about the storm surge than the wind.  Just like Hurricane Ike.

You can track the storm online using our free Interactive Hurricane Tracking Map.

Extreme heat this weekend

As we first mentioned on Monday, temperatures will be even hotter this weekend.

I call it, "The Irene Effect."  Although the hurricane will be more than a thousand miles away from the Houston-Galveston area, the broad circulation around the storm will shove drier air toward Texas. 

Dry air heats up faster than the moist air we've been enduring laterly.  As a result, we think temperatures could top out between 105-110° from Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

The all-time hottest temperature ever recorded in Houston was 109° on September 4, 2000.

Meteorologist Travis Herzog dug through some old weather maps and discovered the air will be drier this coming weekend than it was back in 2000. We think there's a good possibility we could set a new all-time record high.

But it's a dry heat!
The way the Heat Index is calculated, the "feels like" temperatures could be a few degrees lower than the actual air temperature. And since dry air also cools a little faster than moist air, morning low temperatures should be a few degrees lower this weekend.

Irene now a category two hurricane

The first hurricane of the season continues to strengthen.  Data from Hurricane Hunters flying through Irene indicate maximum winds are now about 100 mph.

The tropical cyclone has already caused widespread tree and power-line damage on the island of Puerto Rico. According to the National Hurricane Center, over 800,000 homes were without power early Monday. Additional strengthening is likely as the circulation moves into warm water and light wind shear. Irene could be a category three hurricane later this week. 

This is already a large storm. Tropical storm force winds extend almost 200 miles from the center of the circulation.

A deep trough of low pressure will develop across the eastern U.S., pulling the storm northward. It looks like the worst part of Irene will track to the east of Florida, but it could affect the Carolinas and the eastern seaboard Thursday and Friday.

The Irene Effect
This storm could also affect our weather. The circulation around the storm will blow dry air southward, dropping the humidity across Texas.  Dry air heats up very efficiently. As a result, I expect temperatures to top 104° (or higher!) this weekend. 

The one benefit of the dry air will be slightly cooler mornings.

 

Irene could become first hurricane of the season

We're almost twelve weeks into the tropical weather season and not one hurricane has developed yet.  On average, the first hurricane usually forms around August 10. So far this season, all nine storms, from Arlene to Irene, have been tropical storms with maximum winds under the 74 mph threshold that designates hurricane status.

If the computer models are correct, however, the storm moving toward the Bahamas right now could become the first hurricane of the season.

As of late Sunday afternoon, Irene was still a tropical storm. Despite the circular appearance on satellite, southerly wind shear has displaced much of the rainfall to the north of the lowest pressure. But if the wind shear relaxes, the circulation could become better organized and winds would likely increase as Irene moves away from Hispaniola and Cuba.

No rain for Texas
At this time, it looks like Florida and the East Coast might get some rain from this storm. Of course, if Irene does get stronger, they'll also be dealing with damaging winds and storm surge.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey continue to drift westward across southern Mexico.  And in the far eastern Atlantic another disturbance is forming off the west coast of Africa. There is a slight chance of this developing into a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days.

Texas drought could continue for several more months

There is growing concern that the current drought might extend into next year.  Water temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean are starting to cool again, a sign that La Nina could be redeveloping. 

The La Nina weather pattern pushes the jet stream north of Texas and leaves us high and dry. That's the reason we're in a drought now.

Water near the equator in the central Pacific Ocean had been warming up this summer.  There were indications La Nina was waning. But for the past few weeks, the water at the surface and several meters below has been getting cooler. 

Furthermore, many of the long range forecast models from the International Research Institute (shown below) are now showing a cooling trend into 2012.

 
What does this mean for us?

Our weather is influenced by the jet stream and that is controlled by the air pressure pattern which is affected by the temperature of the water in the oceans. 

So....

If the water temperatures continue to drop in the Pacific Ocean, storms moving in from the west could be pushed to our north, leaving us dry.

A tropical storm would change everything
A La Nina weather pattern also reduces wind shear aloft which allows tropical cyclones to strengthen into bigger storms.  If a big, wet tropical storm moves into Texas and dumps widespread, heavy rain the ground would become saturated, lake levels would rise and the drought would theoretically end in some areas.

But even if we get a storm like that, with the La Nina weather pattern controlling our weather, drought would most likely return in a few months.

Either way, it's not looking good.

Drought forcing many communities to restrict water usage.

 
Lake levels across Texas are getting lower and lower. The photo above is from Lake Houston. Normally, the water is lapping the top of the bulkhead. Not this summer.

We're using more water these days and there's no rain to replenish the supply.  That's why many communities, including the city of Houston, have enacted mandatory water conservation measures.

In addition to limiting how long your run the lawn sprinkler, there are other ways to save water. 

Earthgauge, an environmental resource group, says if you shorten your shower by two minutes you'll save five gallons of water.  Turn the water off between rinses while doing the dishes and you'll save another five gallons or more. 

You'll find more water saving...and money $aving...tips on the 40 Gallon Challenge website.