Hurricane Earl is tracking very close to the coast

The eye of Hurricane Earl will pass within 60 miles of the North Carolina outer banks later tonight.

Hurricane Earl is still a major category four storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Winds are estimated to be about 140 mph in the eye-wall of the storm.

While no part of North Carolina is within the forecast cone, they will no doubt feel the effects of this storm.  Hurricane force winds over 74 mph extend 90 miles out from the center of the storm. Tropical storm forces winds above 39 mph extend 230 miles outward. The wind field in Earl is almost as wide as it was in Hurricane Ike.

The forecast cone naturally attracts a lot of attention. But the cone only indciates where the center of the storm might track. The full effects of a hurricane usually extend well beyond the forecast cone.

The strong easterly winds on the north side of the storm will raise water levels by 3-5' all along the East Coast. Large waves will also roll ashore on top of the high water, causing more beach erosion and dangerous rip tides.  Rainfall amounts will range from 4-6".

Bumpy ride for Hurricane Hunters
Eyewitness News reporter Ted Oberg rode along with the Hurricane Hunters as they flew a special research flight through Earl. The data gathered on that trip and several others planned for this week will help meteorologists develop better forecast models.

Earl will affect the whole coast
The hurricane should continue tracking northward tonight and then turn to the northeast, helped along by a cool front moving across the country. The same cool front, by the way, that will bring us lower humidity and cooler mornings this weekend.

According to our exclusive FutureTrack forecast model, the strongest winds will reach North Carolina about 10 PM tonight, Washington D.C. around 6 AM Friday, New York about 12 Noon and Boston around 3 PM Friday.  Hurricane Warnings are now in effect all the way to Massachusetts, including Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.

That's not all
Farther east, Tropical Storm Fiona and Tropical Depression Gaston are still over open water.  Another tropical wave just off the coast of Africa could develop this weekend. You can keep track of these storms using our free online Interactive Hurricane Tracking Map.

August 2010: The Warmest Ever...on record*

The average temperature last month was 87.7° which makes it the warmest August on record and the warmest month on record at Bush Intercontinental Airport. The previous record was set in July 1980 and August 1962 when the average temperature was 87.5°.  We beat the old record by a mere 2/10ths of a degree. 

The average temperature combines both the high and low temperatures. So let's break it down even more. The average high temperature in August 2010 was 97.6°, which is 4.1° above normal. There were only two days when the high temperature was less than 95°. The average low in Houston was 77.9°, which is 4.9° warmer than usual.

Higher than normal dew points kept us from cooling off at night and produced a dangerously high heat index.  On August 14, the heat index hit 114°. Heat Advisories were in effect for about half of the month.

In Galveston, August 2010 was the second warmest on record with an average temperature (highs and lows combined) of 87.4°.  That's 2.9° warmer than normal. The hottest month on record in Galveston was August 2005 when the average temperature was 86.6°.

 

 * The phrase "on record" is important because local weather observations only date back to 1889.  Furthermore, over that time the official thermometer for Houston has been moved several times before being installed at Bush Intercontinental Airport in June 1969.

Hurricane Earl threatens the East Coast

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of North Carolina and additional advisories are likely as Earl moves toward the East Coast.

Earl is a large storm. Hurricane force winds extend 90 miles out from the eye of the storm. Tropical storm force winds extend 200 miles outward. The strongest winds in the eye-wall surrounding the eye are estimated to be about 135 mph, making Earl a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

The forecast track shows Hurricane Earl tracking parallel with the East Coast.  But even if the storm center stays offshore, and it's still not certain it will, cities all along the East Coast could experience hurricane force winds, large battering waves and heavy rain squalls.

A big player here is a strong cool front moving across the country. If the front is fast enough, it might pick up Earl and push it away from the coast.  If the front slows down, the hurricane could track closer to the coast.

This cool front, by the way, will push into Texas as well. Strong thunderstorms are possible Friday when the front arrives but the sky will clear over the weekend.   This cool front will bring back lower humidity amd slightly cooler morning lows. 

Danielle weakens, Earl strengthens and Fiona forms

We are working three, possibly four, tropical weather systems. All of them are over the Atlantic Ocean and none of them are headed toward us.

 

Based on satellite data, winds in Hurricane Earl were estimated to be 135 mph on Monday. That makes Earl a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. But the strongest winds were in the eye-wall, over the water. Winds on Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands peaked between 60-75 mph earlier Monday.

Hurricane Earl will be tracking toward the East Coast this week and could strengthen even more.  While the center of the forecast track shows the storm staying offshore, the forecast cone is wide enough to include some of the major cities between North Carolina, New York and Maine.

Following in the wake of Earl is a new storm. Tropical Storm Fiona developed Monday afternoon, ahead of schedule. Based on historical hurricane data, the sixth storm of the season normally develops around September 8.  Fiona is not expected to be as strong as Earl and some computer models even show the storm dissipating in the next few days. 

Hurricane Danielle continues to dissipate as it moves over the cold water in the North Atlantic.  But another tropical wave has just emerged in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. We're watching this new storm for possible development later this week.

You can keep track of all the storms in the tropics using our free online Interactive Hurricane Tracking Map. 

Mix of sun and showers in Houston this weekend

A non-tropical storm in the Gulf could produce rain on Sunday. But there will be some sunshine on Saturday!

There's a lot of moisture gathering just off our coastline. The heavy showers, shown to the left on our enhanced tropical satellite, are congregating along the "August Cool Front" that moved through Houston on Tuesday. The front stalled offshore. A small area of low pressure is developing along that boundary will help lift it back to the north over the weekend.

There's a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. 
A slight change in the position of the front can have a big affect on our weather.  That's why the day-to-day forecast has been changing so much this past week.

Right now it looks like humidity will return to Houston on Saturday along with some fair-weather cumulus clouds.  We still have a slight chance of rain in the forecast, but most areas away from the coast will probably stay dry. 

With the front a little farther north, clouds will be thicker on Sunday and showers are possible across southeast Texas.  Temperatures will be a little lower because of the clouds and rain. But it will be muggy again.

Tropics are very active.
Out in the open water of the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl are stirring up the fish.  Danielle will turn to the north and pass near Bermuda on Saturday.  Earl is tracking a little farther south but it's still days away from getting close to populated areas.

And then there's another vigorous tropical wave developing just east of Earl. There's a high chance that storm could develop into a tropical cyclone over the weekend, named Fiona.  It's also forecast to stay over the open water, away from populated area.

You can track all the storms in the tropics using our free online Interactive Hurricane Tracking Map. Check the latest position, the forecast tracks and hurricane models.

Tropical moisture returns this weekend

The "August Cool Front" that's lowering our humidity could turn around and push some rain our way this weekend.

We'll enjoy a sunny day on Thursday with more "dry heat." Temperatures will still reach the mid 90s, but the afternoon humidity will only be about 30%!

Watching for tropical development
The cool front will turn stationary and begin to drift north starting Friday. Clouds will increase and eventually more rain will develop across southeast Texas.  Some of the hurricane forecast models suggest an area of low pressure could develop along the weak front, just off the coast of Texas, and strengthen into a tropical cyclone.

Hurricane Humberto developed in a similar way back in September 2007.

Either way, we'll end up with rain. Obviously we'll get more rain and stronger winds if the storm develops into a tropical system.

Say "Hello" to Earl
Meantime, Tropical Storm Earl developed in the far eastern Atlantic on Wednesday. While Hurricane Danielle is not expected to impact the U.S., it's possible that Earl could track a little farther west and potentially impact the eastern seaboard early next week.

Another wave farther east could develop into Tropical Storm Fiona, if a storm doesn't form in Gulf of Mexico first.

Types of tropical weather systems

We use a lot of different terms to describe storms developing in the tropics. Here's a quick explanation of what they mean.

A "tropical disturbance" is a disorganized storm.  This could be a cluster of thundershowers over the open water associated with a tropical wave or storms developing along the remnants of an old cool front. This is the first stage of development.

Once meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center detect an area of low pressure within the cluster of thundershowers, the storm is upgraded to a "tropical depression."

When winds reach 39 mph within some of the thundershowers, the system is upgraded to a "tropical storm" and given a name to help meteorologists keep track of it among others that could be developing nearby.

If the low pressure deepens, the storm will become better organized and the winds will increase. Once the winds exceed 74 mph, the storm is upgraded to a "hurricane."  The term "major hurricane" refers to a storm with winds over 110 mph.

Finally, the generic term "tropical cyclone" can be used to refer to a tropical depression, tropical storm or a hurricane.

Are the tropics starting to wake up?

The middle of August usually marks the beginning of the most active time in the tropics and there are indications that the weather over the water is starting to organize. Danielle is spinning over the central Atlantic and Earl could be developing right behind it.

But there are other spots we're watching as well.

We run a special version of our exclusive FutureTrack forecast model over the deep tropics twice a day and it's showing several areas of concern, one close to us. In addition to the three possible storms over the Atlantic, there could be some development over the Caribbean Sea and the western Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.

We're already carrying a 60% chance of rain in the forecast for the weekend but we might need to bring that up a little bit. A weak "August Cool Front" will move across Texas on Wednesday and then become stationary over the Gulf of Mexico. There's a possibility a little low pressure could form along the decaying front. Occasionally storms like this develop into tropical cyclones.

By the way, that cool front will break the heat wave!  It'll still be warm on Wednesday and Thursday but the humidity will be dropping.  "It's a dry heat," for a change.  The rain this weekend will keep the temperatures lower as well.

Wind damage across the Houston area

Strong thunderstorms moving across southeast Texas produced wind damage in many neighborhoods Monday afternoon and evening. At one point almost 100,000 people in the Houston area were without power, according to CenterPoint Energy.

Many of our viewers sent in photos of the wind damage. Allesia Tharp shot the photo to the right of a trampoline wrapped around a power pole. You can see all of the photos and submit your own on our website.

Most of the damage was from straight-line thunderstorm winds. There were no reports of tornadoes. There was a lot of thunder and lightning during the thunderstorms and small hail fell with the heavy rain.

A few more thundershowers could show up on MegaDoppler 13 Tuesday afternoon when the atmosphere heats up again. And some of the storms could be strong if they develop in your neighborhood.

Relief from the heat is coming by the end of the week. An "August Cool Front" will lower the humidity and the temperatures a few degrees, making it much more comfortable.

Tropical Depression #6 is not headed toward Texas

Tropical Depression #6 strengthened into a tropical storm Sunday evening. Computer models now suggest the storm could become a major hurricane later this week.

Previous discussion:

The sixth tropical depression of the season has formed off the coast of Africa. If it continues to strengthen it could become the fourth named storm, Danielle.  The forecast models suggest it could also become the second hurricane of the season.

Regardless, it's not headed toward the Gulf of Mexico.

At this moment, this storm is the only thing developing the tropics.  That's unusual for this time of year. This is the beginning of what is usually the peak of hurricane season. Most forecasters expected we'd have several storms under our belt by now.

There are lots of theories floating around the blogosphere as to why the tropics have been so quiet this year: too much shear, too much dry air, too much heat in the oceans and surrounding landmasses.  But honestly, no one knows for sure.

Of course, there's still about fifteen weeks left in this hurricane season. But if storms don't start popping up soon, we're all going to have some 'splaining to do!

Heat Advisory in effect this weekend

Temperatures will hit a high near 100° both Saturday and Sunday and the high humidity will push the heat index up to 105-110°.  That's high enough to keep the Heat Advisory in effect for a couple of more days...at least.

As I mentioned a couple of days ago, this month is already on target to be the hottest August on record. It could also end up being the hottest month ever! 

The average temperature so far this month is 88.3°.  That's the average of the high temps and the low temperatures.  That's five degrees warmer than normal and hotter than any other month on record!  The previous record was set in August 1962.

August on track to be one of the warmest on record

The average temperature so far this month is 88.3° which is 4.4° warmer than normal. That's warmer than it's ever been during the month of August according to records maintained by the National Weather Service.

High temperatures have been 95° or hotter every day this month and we've hit 100° twice. And we're not cooling off at night. Low temperatures have yet to drop below 76°.

Our forecast calls for more steam heat this week. The high heat is only part of the problem. The excessive humidity will make it feel like 103-108°.  Unfortunately, long range forecast models suggest temperatures will be hotter than normal for the rest of the month.

Here comes Tropical Depression #5...again

The remnants of Tropical Depression #5 are back over the Gulf of Mexico and moving westward.

Didn't this thing dissipate last week?

Ah, yes.

But a little piece of that storm continued to spin over Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia and eventually it got caught up in the upper levels winds and was pushed back over the Gulf of Mexico.

I talked about this last week.

Although the storm is moving over warm water, strong wind shear should keep it from fully developing into a tropical storm. None of the dynamic computer models forecast any significant strengthening.

The storm looks like it's headed for a second landfall in southeast Louisiana-- same spot it made landfall the first time.Although a few areas along the central Gulf coast might have some gusty winds, this is primarily a rain-maker...for them and us! 

We're still showing a higher chance of rain on Wednesday and Thursday as the moisture moves westward.  With more clouds and rain filling the sky, we'll see less sun and it won't be quite as hot.

The rest of the tropics are strangely quiet.

Steam heat this weekend, but relief is coming!

Temperatures will be 3-5° hotter than normal this weekend. That doesn't sound like much until you consider our normal highs are in the mid 90s. 

Add the humidity and it gets dangerous.  The heat index will hit 103-108° both Saturday and Sunday afternoon. The National Weather Service has issued another Heat Advisory for the Houston-Galveston area. If you'll be spending a lot of time outdoors, watch for signs of heat exhaustion or sunstroke: heavy sweating, rapid heartbeat and nausea.

Temperatures heat up quickly
The ABC 13 Weather TempTrack shows a plot of the temperatures and heat index from Friday.  We started off warm, in the upper 70s. It was already over 90° by lunchtime with a heat index of 100°.  Temperatures topped out in the upper 90s mid-afternoon and the heat index didn't drop below 100° until later in the evening. Expect similar temperatures this weekend.

Relief could rain down next week
The remnants of tropical depression #5 could come back to life when the low pressure moves back over the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. If the storm tracks far enough to the south, over deep warm water, the storm could re-develop into a tropical cyclone. 

Either way, it should bring us some rain by the middle of the week and the thicker clouds will keep our temperatures down.  Highs might only be in the upper 80s or low 90s on Wednesday.  That would be "cooler" than normal!

Meteor showers in the forecast

Look up tonight and you might see a shower of meteors crossing the night sky!

The Perseid Meteor Shower peaks tonight. The Earth will be passing through the debris left behind the comet Swift-Tuttle.  Small particles of rock and dust will burn up as they enter our atmosphere, creating gentle streaks of bright light.

According to Stardate magazine, most of the meteors will appear to emanate from the constellation Perseus, visible in the northeast.  You could see a meteor every minute or two between midnight and sunrise Friday morning.

For the best view, get away from city lights. You don't need binoculars or a telescope. Wait several minutes for your eyes to adjust to the darkness and look up!

Although the number of meteors will be greatest tonight, you could still see frequent "falling stars" over the next week or two.

Three things to watch in the tropics

Updated 4PM Wednesday
The storm in the eastern Gulf of Mexico has dissipated. All watches and warnings have been cancelled. The National Hurricane Center will no longer be issuing updates on this storm.

Previous Discussion:

Tropical Depression #5 doesn't look very impressive on satellite. In fact, the storm that's not TD#5, much farther east in the Atlantic, looks more menacing. And there's a new tropical wave moving toward the Caribbean this morning.

The storm in the eastern Gulf of Mexico is moving over very warm water, but dry air and wind shear is preventing the tropical depression from becoming organized.  There is a possibility this storm won't fully develop into a tropical storm or it might dissipate before making landfall like Bonnie did last month.

I still expect TD#5 to bring some rain to the Gulf coast but very little wind and no surge. 3-5" of rain could fall across southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi and Alabama.  A little of that moisture will help bring us a few more showers, but rainfall will be scattered around here; many of us will stay dry.  Folks lucky enough to get wet will also cool off...for a few minutes.

The storm in the central Atlantic Ocean could strengthen into a tropical cyclone. This storm should continue to track northward, away from populated areas.  The small tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles is currently in a low-shear environment conducive for development over the next few days.

Track all of these storms on our free online Interactive Hurricane Tracking Map.

Storm in the Gulf could bring us rain, cooler temps

Low pressure spinning about 100 miles off the coast of Florida could become better organized as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico.  The still unnamed storm is being affected by northerly wind shear. But if the upper air winds weaken, the low could deepen and become a fully developed tropical storm.

The water vapor satellite image, shown to the right, indicates dry air is being pulled into the circulation which will limit strengthening for awhile.

Computer models, as seen on our Interactive Hurricane Tracking Map, predict the storm will move toward the central Gulf coast and a couple of them now show the storm strengthening into a hurricane.  But there's a pretty big spread among the various models which gives me low confidence in the data.

Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly through the storm Monday afternoon. Data will be added to the computer models and should help develop a consistent forecast.

At the very least, the moisture from this storm should bring us some rain toward the end of the week. And if there's rain, there's also cooler temperatures!  And by that, I mean, about 4-6° cooler.  But that should be enough to cancel the Heat Advisory, if it's still in effect by then.

Houston Forecast: Steam Heat All Weekend

The Heat Index will hit 105-108° both Saturday and Sunday.  That's calculated based on the air temperature which is measured in the shade.  If you're in direct sunlight, it will feel another 10-15° hotter than that.

A Heat Advisory was issued for the area on Wednesday after the Heat Index hit 108°. According to National Weather Service procedures, once issued the Heat Advisory must not be cancelled until the peak Heat Index drops below 105°. Based on our forecast, that's not going to happen for several days.

The heat and humidity are uncomfortable and can be dangerous if you spend a lot of time outdoors. Watch for signs of heat exhaustion: heavy sweating, rapid heartbeat and nausea.

Tropical Storm Colin: no threat to us or U.S.

Hurricane Hunters were surprised to find 60 mph winds inside the storms associated with Tropical Storm Colin.  That was late Thursday. The winds are a little weaker today, but still blowing over 39 mph which is the lowest speed necessary for Colin to be called a tropical storm.

Strong wind shear is tearing the storm apart. All the thundershowers are to the right of the lowest pressure, the center of the storm. Wind shear is expected to weaken by Saturday, allowing the storm to become better organized and strengthen a little.

Colin is sandwiched between low pressure on the east coast and high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean. Computer models continue to show the storm tracking northward, staying away from the U.S. Bermuda should be the only populated area affected by Tropical Storm Colin.

Elsewhere in the tropics, another tropical wave in the Caribbean should move into central America over the weekend without fully developing.  But another disturbance, much farther east in the Atlantic Ocean could become the fourth named storm of the season, Danielle. 

Heat Advisory: now it's officially hot!

We hit the magic number on Tuesday: the Heat Index was 108° at Bush Intercontinental Airport. That's how high it must be before the National Weather Service issues a Heat Advisory for this area.

Temperatures are only running 3-4° higher than normal. It truly is the humidity that makes the difference.  Lower dew points earlier in the week, kept the Heat Index between 100-105°. But the humidity is climbing, pushing the beloved "feels like" temperatures even higher.  And with no major change in the weather pattern coming, I expect the Heat Advisory will continue thru the weekend.

Get a drink...of water!
The National Weather Service reminds us that we can lose up to a gallon of water per hour from sweating. Alcohol and soda pop can actually increase the amount of sweating, putting you at risk of heat exhaustion and sunstroke.  To beat the heat and stay out of the emergency room, drink plenty of water.  Fitness experts say if you wait till you're thirsty, you're waiting too long.

How hot is it?
Check the temperature in your neighborhood using our free online Interactive Weather Map.

Fast moving Tropical Storm Colin

Updated: Tropical Storm Colin has weakened to simple low pressure in the central Atlantic. That was fast. Wind shear and dry air worked together to keep the storm from strengthening. No more advisories will be issued on this storm.

Previous Discussion:
Tropical Depression #4 was upgraded to a tropical storm overnight.  This is the fourth depression of the season, but only the third storm to reach tropical storm strength.

Colin is a small storm, barreling westward at 24 mph, about twice as fast as most tropical cyclones move. The fast movement along with westerly wind shear are preventing the storm from strengthening. Tropical storm force winds only extend out 35 miles from the center of the storm.

Significant strengthening is not likely and it is entirely possible that Colin could shear out into an open like Bonnie did a couple of weeks ago.  If the storm doesn't fall apart, it might bring some wind and rain to the east coast, but it is not expected to fully develop into a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we're also keeping an eye on a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. Some of the forecast models suggest this could develop into a storm over the next few days.

Tropical depression forms in the Atlantic

The fourth depression of the season could become the third named storm of the season, perhaps as early as this afternoon.

The storm would be named "Colin".

There are two possible scenarios for the future of this storm, but neither takes it into the Gulf of Mexico. A low pressure trough moving across the U.S. could scoop up the storm and turn it north, away from the U.S.  Or the storm could miss the trough and not turn away from land, possibly impacting the east coast by the weekend.

Right now, the depression is in a low shear environment, moving over warm water.  But there is dry air to the north and it's moving quickly to the northwest at 17 mph. The faster it moves, the harder it is for the circulation to strengthen.

You can track the storm online using our free Interactive Hurricane Tracking Map.

July 2010 was one of the wettest on record

More a foot of rain fell at Bush Intercontinental Airport during the month of July.  That's about four times more than normal!  Over five inches fell in one storm, on July 2. The moisture from that storm was pushed into Texas by Tropical Storm Alex. A week later, we got another two inches.  Two weeks later, another two inches fell. With several smaller storms in between, it all adds up.

 

With 12.92" of rain, July 2010 was the fourth wettest on record.

Not every neighborhood was as wet.  Four inches of rain fell in Galveston during the month of July. It's a third of what fell in Houston, but it's still a couple of inches more than normal.  In June, over nine inches of rain fell in College Station.  But only an inch of rain fell in Aggieland during the month of July.

 

Over six inches of rain fell in Conroe and Tomball.  Pearland was also wet last month with over a foot of rain.  But the wettest spot in the area was Sugar Land; over fifteen inches of rain fall across northeast Fort Bend county in July.

 

Here are some specific July rainfall amounts reported by the National Weather Service:

• Bush Intercontinental Airport:  12.92"
• Hobby Airport:  12.77"
• Galveston:  4.76"
• Angleton:  9.85"
• Brenham:  1.35"
• College Station: 1.23"
• Conroe:  6.12"
• Huntsville:  4.30"
• Palacios: 12.44"
• Pearland:  13.94"
• Sugar Land:  15.67"
• Tomball:   6.98"
• Wharton:  7.85"

Photo submitted to ABC 13 by Lori Garcia.

Where are all the hurricanes?

We warned you there'd be more hurricanes this year, yet only two tropical cyclones developed during the first two months of hurricane season.

But a quiet start isn't unusual. The action usually picks up around the middle of August and continues into early October.  Statistically, the peak of hurricane season is the second week of September.

All indications point to a very active period ahead. Water temperatures in the Atlantic basin (which also includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea) are still much warmer than normal and with no large storms stirring things up, the warm water is pretty deep.

Shear and dust keep the hurricanes away.
So far this season strong wind shear has been tearing tropical waves apart, keeping them from developing into bigger storms. Wind shear caused Tropical Storm Bonnie to dissipate even before it made landfall.

Now a big plume of dry, dusty Saharan air is blowing across the deep tropics. In the image to the right, shades of yellow and orange represent dry air covering most of the Atlantic Ocean and extending into the Caribbean Sea.  That should keep the tropics quiet for a week or two.

But then, things should change.

"The party should be a wild one."
I asked AccuWeather's hurricane expert, Joe Bastardi, if this year's hurricane forecasts were too high in light of the quiet start.  He pointed out that the shear zone is starting to break up into smaller pieces and the pressure is rising across southern Canada which introduces lower pressure farther south across the U.S. and into the tropics. "I fully expect to see 2 or 3 named storms going on at once and (there will be) very few days between August 15 and October 15 without a storm on the map," Bastardi warned.

He also pointed out that the two storms that have developed this season were weak storms to begin with and still managed to strengthen enough to earn a name.

Bastardi says he expects five hurricanes and another tropical storm will impact the U.S. coast before the end of the season. "Make sure you getting your tracking shoes on," he told me. "I think you will need them."

Hurricane season doesn't end until November 30.

More heavy downpours ahead this week

Tropical moisture will continue to produce scattered, heavy thundershowers across southeast Texas over the next few days.

Our exclusive FutureTrack forecast model shows pockets of heavy rain developing Monday afternoon all across the area.  Expect more downpours to develop on Tuesday and Wednesday. The storms will start showing up on MegaDoppler 13 as the atmosphere warms during the afternoon. Most of the rain should dry up an hour or two after sunset.

Some of the moisture is drifting eastward from Tropical Storm Bonnie, which dissipated late Saturday night just off the coast of Louisiana. Additional moisture is coming from another tropical wave cross the Gulf of Mexico.

The upper levels of the atmosphere will begin to dry out during the second half of the week. That will reduce the chance of rain, but allow temperatures to reach the mid to upper 90s again.